Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow: Mini Dow Futures Signal

Engrbytrade™ Dow daily derivative related calculations from CBOT Mini Dow futures trading data indicate a topping process is in progress. This same process occurred between October 26, 2021 and January 7, 2022 when three separate signals were provided during this time frame as shown in the 2021 – 2022 chart below. Calculations show this process is repeating with two out of three signals occurring on June 13, 2023 and July 25, 2023. A third signal is expected to occur in August 2023, but additional data will be needed to confirm this. If this does occur in August, it would align with expectations noted on July 27, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: Declining Trend

Since 2014 Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations have shown British Pound Commercial Futures Trader expectations oscillating to the point where they eventually impact the price of silver. The peak of each oscillation in these contracts (shown with dark arrows) occurred on July 1, 2014, August 16, 2016, March 14, 2017, April 17, 2018, August 6, 2019, March 2, 2021 and most recently on July 18, 2023. After each Commercial Futures Trader oscillation peak, silver ultimately moved in the direction of a declining trend. The peak of silver’s relative value against the Pound, as measured by Engrbytrade™ Non-Commercial Trader’s expectation calculations, are shown with red arrows.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Crude Oil: Under Accumulation

Engrbytrade™ intramarket energy derivative futures trading data calculations indicate crude oil is under accumulation. Calculations also show crude oil is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on March 31, 2020.  Additional data will be needed from a move similar to what occurred between April 2020 and November 2020 in order to calculate a longer term peak.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: Long term decline

On June 10, 2023, it was noted that the Euro was expected to move above 1.14 before starting a decline. Weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations from July 18, 2023 indicate the Euro moved within 1% of its peak and is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on December 9, 2020. A long term decline is expected to commence for the Euro as traders start moving into U.S. Dollars. During the Euro’s decline traders will also shift into U.S. Dollars as they move out of currencies that include the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: October 2024 Low

As the Dow chart structure shown below continues to develop, long term Engrbytrade™ trade markers point to a low in October 2024. Whether by design, or a result of built-in programming, this 1997 – 2023 Dow structure appears to provide an indication of where this chart will ultimately end.  Prior to moving lower the Dow is expected to hit 37,744 (+/-1%) by October 5, 2023 (+/-1 trading day).

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Upper Trend Line Breakout

On July 13, 2023 it was noted that Market Makers would need to decide on a course of action within the current ascending triangle. Today, it appears they have made a decision to move higher and follow a path that is similar to what occurred in 1929, 1973, and 2020. Based on their move above the upper trend line the Dow is expected to hit 37,744 (+/-1%) by October 5, 2023 (+/-1 trading day) before a significant collapse occurs.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: 2023 Accumulation Continues

Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation.  As of 06:56 AM EST the US Dollar held a 68% bullish rating over the last three days. It is not reflected in news reports indicating traders are planning to continue selling the Dollar. This ongoing accumulation period is expected to provide a move higher, just as it did in 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Infinite Liquidity

If the Dow closes above its upper trend line shown in the chart below, it provides Market Makers with an opportunity to draw in retail investors, hedge funds, pension funds, etc. using “infinite liquidity”. At this point, it is up to the Market Makers to decide what their course of action will be. History has shown the Dow would be expected to move higher for an average of 56 trading days before hitting a peak and then falling dramatically.  The following dates and related trading days illustrate this.

Ascending Triangle Breakout History
June 28 – September 3, 1929 (54 trading days)
November 3, 1972 – January 11, 1973 (44 trading days)
November 1, 2019 – February 12, 2020 (69 trading days)
Average number of breakout trading days before a decline starts = 56
56 trading days covers July 13, 2023 to October 2, 2023 (200% Fibonacci rise = 37,744)

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Big Block Trades

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and big block trading activity between May 31, 2023 and July 5, 2023 indicate several of the most active Dow stocks are exhibiting a unique trading pattern in large blocks over 1 million shares. This pattern is similar to what occurred between October 19, 2021 and November 22, 2021. Activity of this nature is typically expected when Market Makers distribute big blocks to large investors or institutions prior to a decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: 10-Yr Note 2023 Timeline

Data shown in the following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders Net (Long – Short) chart provides a partial background where the 10-Yr Note peaked on September 25, 2018 and is currently expected to peak within a matter of days. In addition to the Non-Commercial Traders chart, weekly engrbytrade™ 10-Yr note futures calculation results show the following dates where the 10-Yr note peaked before moving lower.

January 18, 2000, June 22, 2004, April 13, 2010, October 2, 1018 and the most recent is July 3, 2023.

The following 10-Yr Note charts are included to provide some perspective on the current timeline.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Bitcoin: Banks and BlackRock

On July 5, 2023 Larry Fink called bitcoin an international asset. This is just the reverse of what he said on October 13, 2017 when he called bitcoin an ‘index of money laundering’. Based on recent actions of BlackRock and international bankers, it is clear they want to drive bitcoin down to its October 13, 2017 level of $5,509. International bankers initiated a similar plan with the Euro when they watched the U.S. Dollar move from 72.12 on January 4, 1982 to 115.7 on February 25, 1985 while the Euro collapsed. The U.S. Dollar is currently expected to move significantly higher during the upcoming months, resulting in bitcoin moving lower. International bankers and BlackRock will accumulate bitcoin during this decline as they build out their line of bitcoin financial products. Upon completion of this decline, the banks and BlackRock will initiate a long term move that ultimately runs bitcoin well above its highs of November 2021.

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S&P500: 1973 vs 2022-2023

A detailed review of the January 4, 2022 to October 13, 2022 and January 11, 1973 to August 22, 1973 charts (shown below) revealed chart structural movements of both time frames were similar. It appeared that Market Makers were repeating the basic chart structure of 1973 in 2022 on a larger scale. There was some variation between the October 13, 2022 to June 30, 2023 time frame and the August 22, 1973 to October 29, 1973 time frame, but both ended with two peak trading days before the end of October 1973 and June 2023. Based on the current Fibonacci structure, a market optimism reading of 80/100 on the CNN Fear & Greed index, and accumulation of US Dollars, a decline following the 1973 chart structure would be expected during the last half of 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Fibonacci 354%

The S&P500 charts shown below illustrate a pattern within a Fibonacci range where a downturn would be expected. On June 30, 2023 the S&P500 hit a high of 4818.62 with a Fibonacci reading of 354%. This is consistent with the S&P500 hitting a reading of 354% within its trading day on January 4, 2022 before making a 9% decline in January 2022.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates/Dollar: Velocity of Money

It was recently noted that the velocity of money and money supply have not been this low since 1932 when Great Depression unemployment was 23%, GDP growth was -13% and the annual inflation rate was -11% along with 1700 banks failing. The current situation appears to be much different according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing an unemployment rate of 3.7%, inflation rate of 5.3% as of May 2023, along with three bank failures in the first half of 2023, including First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank.

A review of Federal Funds Effective Rate hikes since 2009 shows the current economic situation will change dramatically over the next three years based on the +4.86% change in the Fed Funds rate since March 2022. The Velocity of M2 Money Stock is expected to continue its decline, as it did between Q3 2006 and Q3 2009. This will include a prolonged decline in the Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ along with a recession at best between 2023 and 2026.

January 1999 (4.63%) to July 2000 (6.54%) = +1.91%
June 2004(1.03%) to August 2006 (5.25%) = +4.22 %
December 2015 (0.24%) to April 2019 (2.42) = +2.18%
March 2022 (0.20) to May 2023 (5.06) = +4.86%

References:
Velocity of Money: Definition, Formula, and Examples
Money Supply Growth Falls to Depression-Era Levels for Second Month in April
Timeline of the Great Depression
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review; M2 and Monetary Policy September /October 1989, Robert L Hetzel, page 15.
Bank Failures in Brief – 2023

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Bitcoin/Dollar: The Future of Money

The Future of Money
Eswar Prasad, WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, June 2023

Go to the 32:30 mark:
“You can have programmability. Units of Central Bank Digital Currency with expiry dates. You could have, as I argue in my book a potentially better than some people might see, or a darker world where a Government decides that units of Central Bank money can be used to purchase some things, but not other things that are deemed less desirable….”

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Bitcoin/Dollar: Banks Accumulation of Bitcoin

On June 28, 2023 daily calculations indicated the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. When the Dollar moves higher bitcoin will move lower, as shown in the chart below. During this move the Engrbytrade™ bitcoin model indicates bitcoin will move below 10,000. This will allow major banks to accumulate bitcoin and use it as a bank reserve for future central bank requirements. Upon completion of the banks accumulation of bitcoin at lower levels, bitcoin is then expected to move well above its November 2021 high in the coming years, just as the Euro moved from 0.56 in February 1985 to 1.40 in September 1992.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dollar: 2023 Accumulation

On March 29, 2023 it was noted that daily calculations indicated the US Dollar was expected to turn and trend higher. Since that date, daily Engrbytrade™ Dollar calculations continue to indicate a strong accumulation of dollars. Arrows provided in the Dollar charts shown below identify specific accumulation points. It appears an accumulation process was initiated during the 2nd quarter of 2023, and is similar to what occurred during the 2nd quarter of 2021.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Bitcoin: JPM Coin

JP Morgan Activates Euro Payment Settlement With Its JPM Coin

JP Morgan Cryptocurrency
Programmable Payments: Automation Becomes Reality

“Following pre-programmed rules, payments are initiated any time conditions are met, removing the need for human intervention to discover, calculate and confirm the required conditions needed before a payment can be executed.”

Payment will not be made if you do not follow the pre-programmed rules.

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