Intermarket structural analysis research
On October 13, 2024 it appeared Market Makers were using algorithms to reproduce mathematical relationships used in the 2018 Dow chart structure. The market rally this week revealed a pattern that is similar to September 2018. Based on this, the remainder of 2024 is expected to be similar to September and October 2018. Key points are identified in the following charts.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On May 16, 2024 it was noted that there were two key indications for a repeat of the year 2000. The 10Yr-2Yr charts shown below provide structural similarities as of November 7, 2024. The latest 10Yr-2Yr yield curve inversion started on July 6, 2022. Since September 6, 2024, it has remained above zero resulting in an inversion that lasted 26 months. On September 18, 2024 the Federal Reserve started their process of cutting the Fed Funds Rate by 1/2 percent. In comparison to 2000, the Fed started cutting rates after major Dow tech stocks collapsed. This time the Fed appears to be repeating their rate cutting process from 2007, as stocks are moving higher. A market decline and a recession in 2025 is expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
As of November 6, 2024 NAAIM Index point 3 on the following chart aligns with October 19, 2022 and October 18, 2023. This supports the expectation of a year-end rally, as noted on November 6, 2024.
On October 27, 2024 it was noted that a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. This year-end rally would complete the 4th quarter peak discussed on October 20, 2024 before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil is clearly in the process of developing a descending triangle similar to what occurred between 2017 and 2019. That led to a market collapse in 2020 when the pandemic hit. The current formation is not a coincidence.
A meeting was held on October 10, 2024 to discuss the development of bird flu pandemic vaccines. Participants included members from the World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, National Institutes of Health, etc. They also discussed mandatory vaccinations. One presentation explained how grocery stores can report customers who purchase food contaminated with a bacteria or virus on their rewards program card. If you did, the CDC can then tell you to quarantine for three weeks.
If this plan is not stopped, 2025 is expected to be a repeat of 2020.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak was expected before stock markets moved lower. To support this, Exchange Insiders setup Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA in the Dow.
History shows Intel’s inclusion in the Dow on November 1, 1999 provided Market Makers with an ability to move other stocks lower in 2000, while Intel moved higher. Declining stocks included Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Nike, and Proctor & Gamble. Market Makers were able to convince investors to stay in the market during 2000 as the Dow moved sideways. Overall, this process is a merchandising operation. Market Makers will need to move other stock prices lower in 2025 in order to buy additional inventory for the future.
The 40.9 degree angle shown below on NVIDIA’s chart is the same as Intel’s angle during 1999 – 2000. Do not conclude that NVIDIA will move significantly higher. Market Makers will only move NVIDIA as needed in order to lower other stock prices.
“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. Development of the NVIDIA ascending triangle shown below indicated a planned effort was underway based on placement of Market Maker’s large block trades. Their trading patterns supported an effective method of accumulation and distribution of inventory. At this point history shows a 70% chance of movement to the upside. This pattern is similar to Apple’s chart between July – October 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and illustrates observations of trade patterns. It is not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 20, 2024, it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. The Engrbytrade™ Dow 1929 Model also indicates a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. The following monthly charts show the Dow to be in a position that is similar to where it was in mid-May 1929, but that can change quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 24, 2024 it was noted that the Euro was expected to move to the 120 range as the US Dollar declined. Additional research revealed Euro vs. U.S. Dollar derivatives indicate this is expected to be the case. Based on the October 25, 2024 post, silver along with the Euro, should move higher over the coming months. This also implies the U.S. Dollar would be expected to move lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Euro chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 14, 2024 it was noted that “Engrbytrade™ daily and weekly silver calculations are currently not indicating consistent readings where a significant decline would be expected”. These calculations were based silver bullion and U.S. Dollar values. Additional research indicates the relative value of silver to the U.S. Dollar is provided through their derivatives, SLV and UUP. Calculations for the relative value chart below indicates silver is undervalued and in a position similar to where it was on July 2, 2010.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Silver charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 9, 2024 a Dow chart identified three gaps that needed to be filled. The S&P500 had two gaps. As of today, the large Dow and S&P500 gaps created on August 8, 2024 have not been filled. This is extremely unusual, particularly in the futures market where open futures gaps are rarely abandoned. This would indicate plans are being made to return to these levels in order to fill the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following table provides a list of Dow Futures gaps since August 8, 2024.
Using the Buffett Indicator 4th Quarter peak discussion on October 20, 2024 as a guide, underlying data shows Market Makers are positioning for a decline. Trading data has shown large blocks of stock crossing the tape over the last several months, while the Dow moves higher. This distribution of stock is similar to what occurred in late 2021. Before Market Makers initiate a major decline, they will drive prices lower in a select group of stocks in unrelated industries, such as Boeing, Intel, Nike and Disney shown below. The list of declining stocks will grow as financial news outlets provide an excuse for their declining prices. This is part of the merchandising operation where Market Makers sell stock at peak retail prices and eventually repurchase stocks in a lower wholesale price range.
“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist [Market Maker] as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Buffett Indicator is a ratio of the total United States Stock market to GDP. As of August 31, 2024 the Market Valuation to GDP was 209%, and is in the +2.2 standard deviation range. Similar events have occurred in the past where this indicator was near or above the +2 standard deviation level. This includes 1961, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2021. Each peak occurred during the 4th quarter. Once again, the Buffett Indicator is above the +2 standard deviation level. A 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets start moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of October 16, 2024 points 3, 4, and 5 on the NAAIM Index shown below are aligned within the October time frame. Markets are expected to move lower during the last half of October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The first 2 minutes of Atlas Shrugged (2011) describes our current path.
Atlas Shrugged 2011
The weekly Hindenburg Omen September 2024 index shows a reading of 3.0 on September 3, 2024 and September 10, 2024. A review of previous double peaks shows the following declines. Be prepared.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 12, 2024 it was noted that a move up in gold will have to wait. This is based on the completion of a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence. In addition to this the 2008 chart structure is similar to the current 2024 chart Fibonacci sequence. At this point a decline is expected in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Unlike gold, Engrbytrade™ daily and weekly silver calculations are currently not indicating consistent readings where a significant decline would be expected. There are current structural changes related to 2007. The charts below indicate silver is following a path similar to that of late 2007. What would be expected is a change in silver derivatives that reflect a move to the $40 mark in silver. In 2007 it was the $20 mark where investors were lured as Market Makers sold their inventory to the public. What followed was a sharp decline going into 2008.
Market Makers are once again working on the investor’s anticipation of higher prices in order to sell their inventory to the public. This time it would be expected to see a level of $40 in silver before a decline begins in 2025. This type of psychological gamesmanship is explained in Richard Ney’s book, “Making it in the Market”.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On December 6, 2023 initial market calculations indicated crude oil was under accumulation. As time progressed, a descending triangle took shape in 2024. Reviewing CVX, it was clear that significant distributions occurred on March 8 and March 9, 2022. This completed Market Maker objectives above the $150 range. Based on the descending triangle in CVX, there is a high probability of a decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 8, 2024 it was noted that Market Makers took deliberate steps to follow the 2021 Dow chart structure. It also appears they are using algorithms, intentionally or not, to reproduce mathematical relationships with the 2018 Dow chart structure. The Dow’s intermarket relationship with Non-Commercial Trader 10-Yr Note interest rate positions indicates Market Makers are expecting a stock market decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Index charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 17, 2024 it was noted that after four years of economic stimulus packages gold was expected to move higher. A detailed review of Non-Commercial Gold Futures Trader positions revealed that, at this point, a move up will have to wait. Gold is currently in the process of completing a 2016 to 2024 three peak Non Commercial futures trading sequence (Points 4, 5 and 6) shown below. This sequence is similar to what occurred between 2009 and 2011. After 2011 a decline continued until 2020 when economic stimulus packages were once again issued to bail out the economy.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Gold charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 26, 2024 it was noted that active money managers were reducing their equity exposure. As of October 9, 2024, it appears they are reluctant to take on additional risk. With an October 9th NAAIM Index reading of 90.26 and Fear & Greed Index reading of 72, there is a low probability of equity managers accumulating a significant amount of risk assets. On October 19, 2022 and November 15, 2023 equity managers did have some room to the upside to accumulate additional risk assets. At this point it will not take much to move the Fear & Greed Index into its Extreme Greed category. To take advantage of this situation, Market Makers may raise equity prices quickly to distribute stock and sell short.
Fear & Greed Index readings relative to the following chart.
Point 1 – October 19, 2022 = 37
Point 2 – November 15, 2023 = 67
Point 3 – October 19, 2024 = 72
On May 13, 2024 it was noted that the angle of support was 8.92 degrees during periods of Exchange Insider distributions. This same angle supported the Dow during 2021 and 2024. On August 5, 2024 the 16.83 degree upper trend line was added. As of October 8, 2024, the Dow has developed to a point where it is similar to its 2021 chart structure.
It appears Market Makers have taken deliberate steps to follow the 2021 chart structure. There is a high probability the Dow will repeat the initial 2022 chart structure pattern with a decline starting this month.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
