Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow: Repeating Trend Lines

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A review of the 2018, 2019-2020, and 2021 trend lines shown above indicates a significant decline is expected to start by the second quarter of 2021.  In the first chart there were 9 trading days between September 21, 2018 and October 3, 2018. In the second chart there were 18 trading days between January 17, 2020 and February 12, 2020.  If this pattern continues the Dow should peak above the 2021 trend line in the 3rd chart, pullback and then hit a final peak in April.  This pattern would explain the steady accumulation of Commercial Futures Trader short positions in the S&P500 and long positions in the VIX.

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Dow: Broadening Formation

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

In the February 6, 2021 post (SP500: Broadening Formation) it was noted that an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern was forming in the SPDR SP500 ETF Trust (SPY).  Since that time the SPY has declined to 381.72.  Since February 16, 2021, a broadening formation has developed in the Dow, as shown in the chart above. This is also very clear in the Futures market and it is expected to be a prelude to a decline. Underlying positions in the Futures market indicate Commercial Traders are expecting a decline in the Dow and S&P500.

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Silver: Short Positions

Current structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48 by March 23, 2021.  A long term decline in silver is planned based on the significant number of short positions held by Commercial Traders. The U.S. Dollar is expected to move higher over the next two years and drive metal prices lower.

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Gold: Long Term Trend

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The chart above provides some perspective on long term projections for gold.  Commercial Trader positions indicate they are in the process of moving gold down to the red trend line.  A decline below 1517 (+/- 2%) is still expected.  Based on underlying futures trader positions, long term calculations indicate the current trend is expected to be a repeat performance of 2000 to 2011. Note that the trend lines start in the early 1800’s.

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Gold: Long Term

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Underlying gold trader positions along a 30 year timeline indicate futures traders are adjusting their positions at a faster pace than what occurred between October 1999 and April 2001.  The falling wedge formation shown above provides an illustration that a long term low is near. The decline discussed on February 6, 2021 is still expected to occur and should be brief, as it was on February 16, 2001, prior to moving significantly higher over the long term.

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Dow: Time is Short

On a 15 minute Futures chart for the Dow Jones index, it appears that February 17, 2021 at 19:30 (7:30 PM EST) is the equivalent of February 19, 2020 at 19:00 (7:00 PM EST).  Time is short.  If this thesis is correct, a decline has started and the Dow is expected to reach 26,892.10 (in the Futures market) by Friday, February 26, 2021. After this decline there will be a brief rally, followed by an even larger decline.

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Dow: Upcoming Decline

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Based on a review of Specialist activities between 1964 and 1974, it appears that major structural templates from this time period were modified and used on a large scale between 1999 and 2009.  Current Designated Market Makers are expected to modify an October 2007 to March 2009 Dow template for a significant decline between 2021 and 2022.  This template would initiate a decline by March 2021 and last until mid-2022.   Unique data points shown below should be noted, as they align with what occurred during the peak of 2007.  At this point there is a 90% chance the market will decline over the next two years in a format similar to what occurred during 2007-2009.  Preliminary estimates indicate the Dow is expected to fall below 6000 by mid-2022. The following data was identified in the engrbytrade computer model.

Prerequisites:

30Yr T-Bond Non Commercial Trader Short Position Peak
Completed on 6/19/07
Completed on 11/3/20

Copper Peak vs Dollar Value
Completed on 9/25/07
Completed on 12/21/20

 

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Silver: Decline Extended

During the short squeeze in silver between January 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021, it appears Market Makers sold a significant number of shares to retail investors rushing in to buy silver derivatives such as SLV. Commercial Futures Traders short positions remained relatively unchanged.  This short squeeze is expected to extend the decline previously planned for silver. Adjustments in the engrbytrade silver model indicate a move to 13.93 is expected by August 25, 2021.

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Silver: Short Squeeze

The rally in silver today was expected as exchange insiders sold short to retail investors rushing in to buy silver. This short squeeze, discussed in the following article, is a move designed to drop the price of silver during the first half of 2021. Commercial Traders will continue to hold a significant number of short positions.  A move to 12.33 is expected by June 2021.

 Is The Reddit Rebellion About To Descend On The Precious Metals Market?

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Dow: 88 Days

Based on historical timelines, dynamic trade structures, engrbytrade™ embedded trade markers, and a collapsing economy, an 88 business day decline has started that will lead to 15,804 (+/- 10%) on the Dow by June 3, 2021.  This is the first phase of a decline that will ultimately lead to a long term low of 4,137.19 on the Dow.  Another point of reference is the SPY.  It is expected to decline to 200 (+/- 5%) by June 3, 2021.

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Dow: 44 weeks

Stock chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com.

In addition to the 1929 timeline, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates made a point in 2017 that the U.S. economy looks like it did in 1937.

The week of May 4, 1936 to week ending March 6, 1937 covers 44 weeks with a similar structure shown in the chart above.  As of the end of this week, the Dow will complete its 44th week starting from March 23, 2020.

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Gold: Significant Short Positions

Commercial Futures Traders still hold significant short positions in gold, and in concert with the media, have driven retail customers into acquiring significant long positions just as they did in mid-2016. While gold prices drop to align with global currencies, retail investors will find their profits evaporate quickly.   A decline to 1517 (+/- 2%) is still expected by February 16, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).

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Dow: Market Peak

Underlying futures trader positions and intermarket relationships between the Dow, 30Yr Bond, Copper and U.S. Dollar indicate a major decline is expected over the next two years.  There is a high probability the Dow will repeat a structure similar to that of October 2007 through March 2009, ultimately dropping below 6,000.  As of January 15, 2021, data indicates the Dow is in the same position as it was on October 11, 2007.

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