Filling the gap in slow motion. Be patient.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: 12 Point Structure
Since April 2020 Crude Oil has developed a 12 point structure (shown below) that is similar to what was developed between January 2007 and February 2008 due to the $2 Trillion Cares Act that was signed on March 27, 2020. Two years and 3 months after the Cares Act was signed inflation pushed the Consumer Price Index 12-month percentage change up to 9.1% in June 2022. Crude Oil is expected to continue moving higher as it did in 2008 due the next wave of inflation in 2023 caused by the $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan that was signed on March 11, 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
$WTIC 2020 – 2022
WTIC 2007 – 2008
Bitcoin: Model Representation
A Bitcoin vs Euro model representation is available on the Bitcoin model page.
Dow: Copper Leading Indicator
Weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations provided a signal on November 15, 2022 indicating a sharp decline is expected for Copper, just as it did on December 17, 2019 prior to the January – March 2020 decline. This signal is also a leading indicator for a sharp decline in the Dow and aligns with Daily engrbytrade™ calculations noted on November 15, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: One Hour Futures Chart
Structural calculations indicate the Dow is in the process of developing a one hour futures chart structure that is similar to what was developed between October 27, 2021 and November 8, 2021. Based on its rate of development the Dow futures chart is expected to reach 34,964 (+/- 1%) by Monday, November 28, 2022 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving lower.
VIX: Decline Confirmation
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations from November 14, 2022 confirm the VIX is expected to move down to the lower trend line as discussed on November 11, 2022. This move should be similar to the VIX decline between October 13, 2021 and November 4, 2021. The Dow and S&P500 will continue to move higher as Market Makers distribute inventory.
Dow /VIX: Filling VIX Gap
Over the last three trading days daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate Market Makers have been distributing (selling) very large blocks of stock as the Dow moves higher. This distribution process is expected to continue until the VIX gap (created on August 22, 2022) has been filled. This means the VIX will need to drop below 21.27 before moving higher. The Dow futures gap created on 8/21/22 was filled on November 10, 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 2022 Recurring Pattern
Watching underlying big block trades, daily calculations and technical indicators for a recurring pattern.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: August 17, 2022
A 15-minute Dow futures chart structure was constructed between 4:00 a.m. on October 28, 2022 through 8:00 a.m. on November 8, 2022 that has similar structural characteristics to what was built between 9:00 a.m. on August 16, 2022 and 2:45 p.m. on August 17, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline is imminent.
VIX: August 22, 2022 Gap
A drop below 21.67 is expected to complete filling the gap created on August 22, 2022. An intraday move down to the red trend line shown in the chart below is also needed before moving significantly higher as it did during September – October 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: 10Yr Note November 2018
Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield is peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
VIX: 2023 Outlook
One example of market structures created and implemented during the course of predetermined time frames. It appears a significant decline is coming and 2023 will not be a good year based on the following weekly charts.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: November 1, 2018
Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate silver traders are in a position similar to where they were on November 1, 2018. Silver is expected to trend higher over the next 12 months with a target range of $30.85 (+/- 5%).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: December 8, 2022
Based on the declines in January and June 2022, preliminary futures structural calculations indicate the Dow will reach 25,913 and the S&P 500 will reach 3,253 by December 8, 2022.
Dow: Fed and Jobless Claims
The Dow 15-minute chart is currently repeating the December 30, 2021 to January 4, 2022 structure. Waiting for the Federal Reserve’s announcement and initial jobless claims report this week to initiate a decline.
Dow: 33,686
As noted on October 21, 2022 the Dow moved within a primary target range of 32,210 (+/- 1 %) on October 27, 2022. It also hit a secondary target range of 33,043 (+/-1%) with a high of 33,000 in the futures on October 28, 2022. A brief move up to 33,686 in the Dow futures 15-minute chart is expected to close the gap created on August 21, 2022. This move would be similar to the Dow 15-minute futures structure developed between December 30, 2021 and January 5, 2022 before a meaningful decline starts.
Dow: Six Day Rally
Over the last six trading days Dow futures have finished with a positive close. Similar six day positive close rallies occurred between December 21, 2021 to December 29, 2021, and May 23, 2022 to May 30, 2022. During all three rallies, it was observed that a significant number of very large blocks were traded. Preliminary estimates indicate that over the next 16 to 17 trading days the Dow will drop back down to 26,400 following the lower trend line shown above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: September Gap Filled
The gap created in the Dow futures chart on September 13, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. has been filled.
Silver: 2008 vs 2022
Noting that silver is in an undervalued position, the following charts indicate the 2008 and 2022 structures are similar.
July – October 2022
October – December 2008
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: Undervalued Position
As the U.S. Dollar continues to move higher, engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations show silver is currently in an undervalued position similar to where it was in late October 2008.
Dow: October Peak
Based on historical data, Market Maker trading activity, structural calculations and rate of speed, there is a high probability the Dow will peak on Thursday, October 27, 2022 (+/-1 trading day) before starting a sharp decline in November 2022.
Dow: September 2022
As of October 24, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ Dow and structural calculations indicate Market Makers have been accelerating their actions to position for a sharp decline, just as they did between September 1, 2022 and September 12, 2022. It is expected that the move upward will be deferred.
Dow: September – October 2021
Structural calculations indicate algorithms are in the process of repeating the late September to early October 2021 chart structure as shown in the charts below. Daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirm this development with updates that include a primary target of 32,210 (+/- 1%) and secondary target of 33,043 (+/- 1%). This rally will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to distribute very large blocks of stock as markets move higher.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: October Trendlines
Engrbytrade structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving up to 31,577 (+/-1%) in the futures market before starting a decline. Trend lines on the chart shown above are based on 30-minute futures chart structures and calculation reviews from October-November 2021 and March 2022. Note that large intraday swings should continue.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Distribution Pattern
As the Dow continues to move higher, trading should be monitored for an increase in very large block trades during the remaining trading days of October and first week of November. Depending on the trade size and distribution pattern from Market Maker activities, it could be followed by a significant decline that would be similar in size to the decline of 2022. Accumulation and distribution patterns by Specialists (currently known as Designated Market Makers) are discussed in Richard Ney’s books shown in the Engrbytrade reference section.