On December 19, 2022 at 11:00 p.m. (EST), the Dow started a 1-Hour Ascending Triangle. A breakout from this triangle would take the Dow above 34,604 to fill a Dow 15-minute futures chart gap noted on December 29, 2022.
Dow: 1929 Model
On December 29, 2022 it was noted that the Dow is expected to move above 34,604 based on a gap in the Dow 15-minute futures chart. The potential does exist for the Dow to move up to 38,000 and align with the 1929 Dow Model, based on extreme moves in the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio.
Dow: December 14, 2022 Futures Gap
On December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. EST, a gap was created in the Dow 15-minute futures chart as the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the Fed Funds rate 0.50% to a target range between 4.25% and 4.5%. The current CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio chart structure, shown below, indicates the Dow will move above 34,604 to fill this gap.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dollar/Gold/Silver: Predetermined Course
On October 9, 2022, it was noted that the US Dollar had an upper trend line angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis and was similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. The chart below shows the US Dollar hit a high of 114.75 on September 28, 2022 with an upper trend line angle of 24.19°. This indicates a predetermined course was developed after 2008 using an upper trend line angle of 25.225° (+/-1.035°). Current intermarket futures trading data calculations show the US Dollar is expected to move higher, repeating a move upward similar to what occurred during the first half of 2001. As the US Dollar moves toward the upper trend line, a decline in value is expected for the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Copper, Euro, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Platinum.
During the Dollar’s initial rise in 2001, the Dow moved up into mid-February 2001 and then had a sharp decline going into the end of March 2001. Preliminary data indicates the Dow is expected to conduct a move similar to this during the first quarter of 2023.
Long term intermarket futures trading data calculations also indicate gold and silver are expected to develop a predetermined inverse chart structure of the US Dollar that is similar to the time frame between January 2001 and March 2008, as shown in the charts below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Rising Eight Point Structure
In addition to repeating structures noted on December 24, 2022, the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between November 10, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. and December 13, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. is in an ascending broadening wedge pattern similar to the NASDAQ 100 index that was developed between February 11, 2020 at 10:00 a.m. and February 19, 2020 at 7:00 p.m. Both structural chart patterns are similar to the engrbytrade rising Eight Point Trading ModelTM shown below. Since this structure is relatively rare, additional data will be needed to ensure the 2022/2023 decline continues.
Significant futures trader’s position spreading discussed on December 18, 2022 occurred five times since June 2007, as shown in the table below. Three out of four accumulation dates were followed by a decline in the market.
Since 2017, extreme peaks in the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio discussed on December 23, 2022 have had a very high correlation with market lows and were followed by a move upward.
Until the ascending broadening wedge, and futures trader’s positions can be confirmed with additional data, the assumption at this point is a move upward based on the Put/Call Ratio correlation.
Dow/S&P500: Repeating Structures
Preliminary research shows Dow and S&P 500 algorithms have been in the process of repeating their basic 1-hour futures chart structures developed between May 30, 2022 and June 17, 2022. Real time data indicates underlying derivative algorithms are moving products in a choreographed effort to develop the May – June 2022 base chart structures. This means Market Makers are expected to follow through with a decline prior to moving the markets higher. Additional work will be needed to determine the level of decline anticipated.
Dow: CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio
On December 21, the Put to Call ratio hit a record close of 2.03, as shown in the chart below. This was followed by a change in daily engrbytrade™ calculations on December 22, 2022 indicating the Dow is now in a structural position similar to where it was on July 5, 2022. The potential exists for a move up into February before turning lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P 500: David Tepper Perspective
Economy: Retail Business Failures
Scott, from The Real Economy shows examples of retail business failures in Florida. This trend will continue all over the U.S.
Crude Oil: Deflationary Decline
Based on Dow futures spread data noted on December 18, 2022, and current December 2022 intermarket Crude Oil futures trading data aligning with data from December 2019, a deflationary decline is expected during the first quarter of 2023. This decline should be similar to what occurred during the last quarter of 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Earnings Recession
Dow: December 14 Futures Gap
Note that on December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m., algorithms responded to the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points and a gap was created in the 1-hour Dow futures index. A move back up to 34, 604 is expected to fill this gap before moving lower.
Dow: Futures Spread
Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate traders have added a significant number of spread positions with the expectation of a sharp decline. This positioning is similar to what occurred between February 11, 2020 and February 17, 2020. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations still indicate a decline is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: US Commercial & Industrial Loans
Economy: Recessionary Indicators
A recession is on the way.
Gold: December – January Decline
Daily engrbytrade™ Gold calculations indicate a pullback is expected in December 2022 and January 2023. This should be similar to what occurred in August – September 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Disclaimer
S&P 500: December Decline
Daily engrbytrade™ S&P 500 futures calculations indicate a decline similar to what occurred after September 12, 2022 is expected to start this week.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Disclaimer
Dow: November 2021
Dow Jones Index futures algorithms developed a chart structure between December 1, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EST and December 12, 2022 at 3:00 p.m. EST, which is similar to the structure that was developed over a shorter time frame between November 8, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. EST and November 10, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. EST. The decline is expected to continue.
Economy: Inflation vs M2
Since 1943, it appears the M2 money supply has been a leading indicator for inflation. When the M2 yearly growth rate moved above 13%, there was a three to four year delay before inflation moved up within 1.1% of, or above, the M2 growth rate.
M2 Monty Supply Growth vs. Inflation Chart
Source: Longtermtrends
| M2 yearly growth rate | Subsequent Inflation rate | |
| 1 | December 31, 1943 – 17.46% | February 28, 1947 – 19.67% |
| 2 | June 30, 1971 – 13.44% | November 30, 1974 – 12.34% |
| 3 | January 31, 1976 -13.81% | February 28, 1980 – 14.76% |
| 4 | January 31, 2021 – 26.89% | 25+% as early as 2024? |
Crude Oil: Continue Moving Higher
Intermarket futures trading data calculations confirm crude oil is in a structural position similar to where it was on October 23, 2001, September 9, 2003, November 1, 2005 and December 2, 2008. Crude oil is still expected to continue moving higher over the long term, as noted on November 20, 2022.
Dow: January 2023 Low
Preliminary calculations indicate the rate of rise and travel from a low of 28,660.94 on October 13, 2022 to a high of 34,595.51 on December 1, 2022 indicates the Dow is expected to approach a low of 26,943 by January 24, 2023. On a longer timeline, preliminary estimates indicate the rate of rise from a March 23, 2020 low of 18,213.65 to a high of 36,952.65 on January 5, 2022 indicates the Dow is expected to drop below 16,000 by September 15, 2023.
SP500: 3000 – 3300
Dow: 26,943
Engrbytrade structural calculations indicate a decline is expected with the NYSE Dow index dropping to 26,943 (+/-1%) and hitting its lower trend line shown in the chart below. This move will also fill the NYSE Dow Index gap created on November 9, 2020 and the Dow Futures Index gap created on November 8, 2020. Additional data will be needed for a projected timeline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Final Gap Filled
On November 30, 2022, the Dow futures index filled a gap between 34,352 and 34,317 that was created on November 27, 2022 at 6:00 p.m. EST. The NYSE Dow index is shown below to illustrate this gap. It appears to be the last significant gap above 34,352 that will need to be filled this year prior to moving lower. The Dow futures index also moved within 1% of 34,964 (+/- 1%), as projected on November 15, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to indicate a decline is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Futures Fibonacci Measurements
Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow futures structure developed between October 2, 2022 and November 25, 2022 used similar Fibonacci measurements as the Dow futures structure developed between October 1, 2021 and November 8, 2021. Based on recent movements in the VIX, it should also be noted that the Dow futures structure developed between Jan 31, 2019 and February 12, 2020 used Fibonacci measurements similar to the 2021 and 2022 time frames noted above. This is why a significant decline is expected.
Note that measurements discussed here work in the Dow futures charts, not daily NYSE charts.