Early morning market reports will influence retail traders to move out of the markets as Market Makers accumulate additional inventory (stock). Accumulation patterns since April 25, 2022 have not changed. Research indicates today’s move is expected to be similar to March 17, 2008 before the Dow started moving higher.
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Dow: Change to 36,263
Final May 4, 2022 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed a change in direction with an expected move up to 36,263 (+/- 1%) before continuing down to 31,000. This move should be similar to what occurred between March 11, 2008 and May 2, 2008.
Dow: Futures peak
Looking to repeat a 15-min. chart structure futures traders used between Jan 4th-5th 2022. Current peak on May 4th 2022 drop overnight – peak again May 5th 2022 followed by a decline.
Dow: Expected Decline
On April 27, 2022 it was noted that the Dow would decline to 31,000 (+/- 2%) [30,380 to 31620]. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are still in line with this expected decline.
Dollar: Accelerated Move
On February 21, 2022 it was noted that U.S. Dollar intermarket futures trading data calculations indicated currency traders were expected to move from currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar into the U.S. Dollar. The pace of this move has accelerated with declines in the Swiss Franc, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations and structural calculations the U.S. Dollar is expected to move up to 110.80 by November 2022.
Euro: November 2022
As noted on July 13, 2021, the Euro peak structure developed between July 27, 2020 and July 12, 2021 is similar to the Euro structure developed between March 6, 2008 and August 5, 2008. The Euro will continue to decline based on engrbytrade™ structural calculations and intermarket futures trading data indicating the Euro is expected to reach 0.96 by November 2022.
Crude Oil: Mid July 2022
Daily engrbytrade™ crude oil calculations and structural analysis indicate crude oil (WTI) is currently in a similar position to where it was in early May 2008. Based on the current rate of acceleration, crude oil is expected to reach 222.95 by mid July 2022.
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Dow: 31,000
Structural calculations indicate a decline in the Dow is expected to continue during April and May 2022 with a move down to 31,000 (+/-2%).
Silver: 2008 vs 2022
Intermarket futures trading data calculations confirm that a decline in silver is near. The 2022 chart below shows silver is in a descending triangle with a similar rate of decline to that of 2008.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Move into May
Today’s decline was steady and methodical. A decline to 34,349 in the futures market is needed to close a gap created at the open on March 19, 2022. Preliminary daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving higher going into May. In addition to this an accumulation of large block trades was noted on April 14, 2022 and April 18, 2022.
Dow: 37,000
As of the close on April 19, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate Market Makers will now move the Dow up to 37,000. This will be similar to the following price moves:
October 4, 2021 to November 8, 2021
December 3, 2021 to January 4, 2022
January 24, 2022 to February 9, 2022
Dow: December 28, 2007
As of April 18, 2022 the Dow is in the process of repeating a structure that is similar to what was developed going into December 28, 2007.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: May 19, 2008
There is a high probability the Dow will start to fall next week. This decline is expected to be similar to what started after May 19, 2008.
Dow: March 29, 2022
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and underlying large block trades indicate the Dow may move higher if a confirmation is received next week. This move is expected to be brief and should stay below the March 29, 2022 high of 35,372.26. If Market Makers move the Dow above its March 29, 2022 high, the April 6, 2022 projected range will need to be revised.
Silver: Falling Wedge
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As silver continues to move through a falling wedge, as shown above, it is still expected to reach 27.79 in order to close a gap in the 30 minute futures chart that was created on June 16, 2021 before moving lower.
Interest Rates: 1987 10-Yr Note
A review of the current non-logarithmic US 10-Yr Note interest rate structure shown below indicates it is similar to the 1987 non-logarithmic 10-Yr Note structure developed between January 1987 and October 1987.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: December 2021
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate crude oil is currently in a position similar to where it was on December 20, 2021. Regardless of actions taken to release oil from strategic reserves, a move above $200 is still expected.
Bitcoin: 17,478
Based on 10Yr Note intermarket daily trading calculations and Bitcoin structural calculations a decline is expected where Bitcoin will reach 17,478. This decline will be similar to what occurred between April 1, 2021 to June 22, 2021 and November 11, 2021 to January 24, 2022. This move will also close the daily chart gap created between November 27, 2020 and November 30, 2020.
Dow: 31,578 – 31,305
Based on the accelerated rate of change in the Dow it is now expected to move down to a range of 31,578 – 31,305 before making a brief move up.
Crude Oil: Repeating 1973-1980
In theory, all indications show that based on growth of the Federal Reserve’s M1 money supply and Consumer Price Index, it appears the U.S. will repeat a 1973-1980 inflationary cycle.
In April 1973 a barrel of oil was $3.56 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $0.39. By April 1980 a barrel of oil was $39.50 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $1.19. As of April 5, 2022 overnight trading for a barrel of oil was in the range of $104.08 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump was $4.16.
Following inflation rates for 1973-1980 this would mean, in theory that the U.S. Dollar would decline in value to the point where a barrel of oil would cost $1,154 and a gallon of gasoline would be $12.69 by April 2029. This appears to be one reason why there is a dramatic push for electric vehicles and the end of gasoline powered car sales in states such as Washington by 2030.
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