As of April 18, 2022 the Dow is in the process of repeating a structure that is similar to what was developed going into December 28, 2007.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: May 19, 2008
There is a high probability the Dow will start to fall next week. This decline is expected to be similar to what started after May 19, 2008.
Dow: March 29, 2022
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and underlying large block trades indicate the Dow may move higher if a confirmation is received next week. This move is expected to be brief and should stay below the March 29, 2022 high of 35,372.26. If Market Makers move the Dow above its March 29, 2022 high, the April 6, 2022 projected range will need to be revised.
Silver: Falling Wedge
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As silver continues to move through a falling wedge, as shown above, it is still expected to reach 27.79 in order to close a gap in the 30 minute futures chart that was created on June 16, 2021 before moving lower.
Interest Rates: 1987 10-Yr Note
A review of the current non-logarithmic US 10-Yr Note interest rate structure shown below indicates it is similar to the 1987 non-logarithmic 10-Yr Note structure developed between January 1987 and October 1987.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: December 2021
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate crude oil is currently in a position similar to where it was on December 20, 2021. Regardless of actions taken to release oil from strategic reserves, a move above $200 is still expected.
Bitcoin: 17,478
Based on 10Yr Note intermarket daily trading calculations and Bitcoin structural calculations a decline is expected where Bitcoin will reach 17,478. This decline will be similar to what occurred between April 1, 2021 to June 22, 2021 and November 11, 2021 to January 24, 2022. This move will also close the daily chart gap created between November 27, 2020 and November 30, 2020.
Dow: 31,578 – 31,305
Based on the accelerated rate of change in the Dow it is now expected to move down to a range of 31,578 – 31,305 before making a brief move up.
Crude Oil: Repeating 1973-1980
In theory, all indications show that based on growth of the Federal Reserve’s M1 money supply and Consumer Price Index, it appears the U.S. will repeat a 1973-1980 inflationary cycle.
In April 1973 a barrel of oil was $3.56 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $0.39. By April 1980 a barrel of oil was $39.50 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $1.19. As of April 5, 2022 overnight trading for a barrel of oil was in the range of $104.08 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump was $4.16.
Following inflation rates for 1973-1980 this would mean, in theory that the U.S. Dollar would decline in value to the point where a barrel of oil would cost $1,154 and a gallon of gasoline would be $12.69 by April 2029. This appears to be one reason why there is a dramatic push for electric vehicles and the end of gasoline powered car sales in states such as Washington by 2030.
Economy: Bretton Woods III
The Roundtable Insight – Zoltan Pozsar & Yra Harris on the Economy, Fin Markets & Bretton Woods III
Crude Oil: Higher Prices
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicated traders are still expecting higher prices during the second quarter of 2022, even with a release from the strategic petroleum reserve. Structural calculations currently indicate a high for crude oil (WTI) of 226.89 before prices start to decline.
Dow: 32,604 – 32,521
Trading during the first two hours indicates a move up in the futures market is not expected to occur. The Dow is now expected to move down to a range between 32,604 – 32,521 using a chart structure similar to what was developed between February 11, 2022 and February 24, 2022.
Dow: 35,022 – 35,136
Based on today’s decline in the Dow, a move up in the futures market is expected to reach a range between 35,022 – 35,136 before making a significant move to lower levels.
Dow: 35,340 – 35,361
Structural calculations indicate the Dow will move up between 35,340 and 35361 before making a significant move to lower levels.
Dow: January 4, 2022
The Dow’s action today in the futures market is a repeat performance of January 4, 2022. One more day should be the end before a decline starts.
Dow: April Decline
Preliminary engrbytrade™ structural calculations show the Dow has started to move lower and will continue through the month of April until it reaches 31,453.
Interest Rates: 1987
Based on engrbytrade™ 10Yr Note interest rate futures market structural calculations, a significant stock market decline is expected in the coming days. This decline could be as swift as the 1987 crash.
Crude Oil: May 20, 2008
History is repeating with crude oil and gasoline prices moving higher just as they did in 2008. Based on the current Dow structure aligning with May 2008, the following news article from May 20, 2008 provides some insight on what occurred during this time frame.
Oil close to $130 after buying surge
The Guardian
May 20, 2008
Dow: May 19, 2008
At 10:37 a.m. (EST) this morning engrbytrade™ structural calculations indicate the Dow hit a peak that is similar to where it was on May 19, 2008 prior to starting a long decline that year. Even though the Dow hit an all-time high of 36,952 on January 5, 2022, today’s move initiates a process where the ongoing decline will start to accelerate.
Interest Rates: 2019 10-Yr Structure
Starting on March 1, 2022 the one hour 10-Yr Note interest rate structure started to repeat its one hour structure that started on October 6, 2019 and hit a peak of 1.968 on November 7, 2019. It is expected that the current structure will continue to follow the general trend of the 2019 structure and reach a peak of 2.547 before trending lower.
Dow: Corporate Insider Holdings
Note that the percentage of shares held by all insiders for each of the following Dow Jones Index companies is less than 1%, while at the current market peak.
Corporate insiders include Officers, Directors, etc.
AAPL, AMGN, AXP, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DIS, DOW,
GS, HD, HON, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, MCD,
MMM, MRK, MSFT, PG, TRV, UNH, V, VZ
Dow: Gap 34,442
In addition to a move to 34,407 in the futures market, calculations also indicate the potential exists for a move to 34,442 in order to fill a gap in the 5 minute chart created before the close on March 17, 2022.
Dow: Falling Wedge
At the time of this post a falling wedge has formed in the 5 minute futures chart with trade price structures indicating a move up out of this wedge is expected. Based on the latest structural calculations it appears Market Makers intend to move the Dow up to 34,407 before starting a long term decline.
Dow: Decision to Move
Based on structural calculation updates, Market Makers appear to have made a decision to move the Dow up to a peak of 34,826 before starting a decline that will last for the remainder of 2022.
Silver: Gap 27.79
Daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations continue to indicate a move upward. In addition to the move to 27.05 as noted on March 15, 2022, updates indicate silver is also expected to move to 27.79 in order to close a gap in the 30 minute futures chart that was created on June 16, 2021 before moving lower.