Today’s upward move in the Dow will be the third try for Futures Traders to fill the gap between 28890.5 and 28908 that was left behind on January 26, 2020 at 17:00 (5:00 p.m. EST). Once this is complete, the Dow should continue to move lower.
Review the 15 minute chart.
Gold & Silver Trend
Palladium is providing a preview of what will occur with Gold and Silver. On August 16, 2018 palladium hit a low of 815.20 and is currently above 2300. Recent structures in palladium, gold and silver indicate the acceleration rates for gold and silver will continue to increase. By April 2021, this will place gold near the $4600 mark while silver peaks near $89. Gold is still expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid to late February before moving higher.
Exceeding Structural Limits
If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.
Dow Upper Trend Line
On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold: 1st Quarter Update
Gold hit the $1570 mark on January 5, 2020 at 6.01 p.m. EST. From this point gold is expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid-February before moving higher.
Dow: 1st Quarter 2020
Based on the identification of a Dow turning point occurring by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day), as noted on December 29, 2019, a decline is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow should decline to 20,044 (+/- 1.5%) by March 10, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Note that volatility is expected to increase significantly during this decline.
Gold & Silver Projection for 2021
As noted on November 23, 2019, the current rate of change for gold brought its price within 1% of the $1570 ($1554.30-$1585.70) price target today with a high of $1556.05 at 1:39 p.m. EST. If the current rate of acceleration continues, gold and silver are expected to reach $4,400 and $50, respectively by mid-2021.
Dow Turning Point
Current data indicates the Dow Jones is expected to reach a turning point by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Once this 90 year structure is complete, a long term decline should start and take the Dow below 6,000 by October 2022.
Dow’s Upper Limit
The Dow Jones Index crossed it long-term structural design limit on Friday, December 20, 2019 as it moved through 28,455. It is possible for the Dow to stay in this range until mid-January 2020 before starting a long-term decline.
Dow Structure Stability
The current broadening top formation in the Dow is developing an ominous structural feature. Based on this structure, a rapid move to the upside going into mid-January could present significant downside risk. If the Fed follows through with their $500 billion liquidity intervention in an attempt to avoid another December 2018 decline, the result could lead to an extremely unstable Dow structure in the first quarter of 2020.
Broadening Top Formation
The Dow’s resistance to a decline is reflected in its Broadening Top formation that started in 2018. This price structure typically appears prior to a substantial decline. Over the recent past examples include 1999, and 2007.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold: Long Term
Gold price structure data from 2018-2019 and futures trading data from 2013-2019 indicates international financiers plan to move the price of gold upward using an average rate of 20% per year until 2028. Price structure data received over the next two years is expected to reinforce this outlook.
Gold in 2020
Gold trading data from mid-October through mid-November revised the engrbytrade gold model™ calculation to show a rate of change along the current structural timeline that would place gold on the $1570 (+/-1%) mark by January 3, 2020. Based on the current structure and rate of acceleration, gold is expected to reach $1770 by August 2020.
November-December Decline
The decline discussed in Dow vs Aramco on Nov. 3, 2019 is still expected based on a move up from October 24, 2019 that was extended three days by Market Makers. Friday’s move up in the Dow to 28,000 provided Exchange Insiders with an opportunity to sell to the public as media outlets manipulated retail investor expectations with optimistic news. A decline is still expected to start by November 19, 2019 +/- 1 trading day and continue until December 24, 2019 when the NYSE closes at 1 p.m. EST. This decline now has the potential to reach 24,200 +/- 1%.
Gold’s Current Structure
The current gold price structure was identified based on calculations showing Commercial Futures Traders plans to move prices much higher over the next several years. Preliminary calculations indicate the structural design and acceleration rate of its price should move the value over $4000 before December 2021. Note that forecast adjustments will be made as needed to compensate for Commercial Traders actions during this move up to 2021. In addition to expectations for 2021, work is in progress to confirm a significantly higher price that is projected for 2028.
Dow vs. Aramco
Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019. This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019. A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.
Dow: Aramco IPO
Prior to any significant decline in the stock market, Aramco is expected to complete an initial public offering by December 11, 2019.
Saudi Aramco shares to start trading in December
Dow: Futures Gap Filled
The October 1, 2019 gap down at 10:00 a.m. (EST) in the Dow 30 Futures was filled today (October 15, 2019) with the Dow 30 Futures moving above 26,986.5 at 10:29 a.m. (EST). This structure clears the way for a decline over the next 18 days. Based on this confirmation, final structural calculations indicate the NYSE Dow 30 index is expected to decline to a level of 24,091.99 (+/-1%) by November 8, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2019 Gold
The engrbytrade gold model™ shows a move upward is expected to start next week. Calculations indicate that gold will hit $1716 (+/-1.5%) by December 31, 2019.
Dow: Tuesday Turning Point
A majority of the gap down identified on 10/6/19 was filled today. A down day is expected on Monday followed by an up day on Tuesday to fill the remainder of the gap. Tuesday’s peak will initiate the start of a decline going into November.
Dow: October Turning Point
Time is short for Market Makers. The latest calculations indicate a turning point in the Dow by Monday, October 14, 2019 (+/- 1 day). Preliminary calculations show the Dow is expected to decline to 24,527 (+/-1%) by November 6, 2019, and then move upward for ten days before the next turn to continue the decline.
(Disclaimer)
Dow: Algorithm Adjustment
A gap down occurred in the Dow futures between 26,986.5 and 26,956 on October 1, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Dow Index algorithm is expected to move the Dow up and fill this gap by November 11, 2019. Final computer model adjustments show the Dow dropping to 22,300 (+/- 1.5%) before December 31, 2019.
Dow: Structure Planned
Today’s move in the Dow’s structure indicates a significant move to the downside is planned. If the Dow moves up to 26,900 (+/-0.5%) by October 11, 2019 (+/-1 trading day), a high probability exits for the Dow to decline to 23,045 (+/-1%) before December 31, 2019.
Dow: 90 Years Later
Dow: 8 Trading Days
As of the close on October 1, 2019, the Dow is expected to move higher over the next 8 (+/-1) trading days before turning down. There is a very high probability (80% chance) that the Dow will hit a low of 25,928 (+/-1%) before November 5, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). There is also a 60% chance that the Dow will hit 24,951 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019.
(Disclaimer)