As of March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST Futures Traders bypassed their move to the upside in preparation for a significant move lower. Starting March 9, 2020, Futures Traders setup a Double Top pattern that will result in a move to the downside between March 12 and March 13, 2020 to a level of 22, 615 (+/-1%).
Dow: Margin Call
Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020. Margin calls are in progress…..
Dow: Friday 13th Low
After nine trading days of extreme volatility, Market Makers have modified their timeline to set up a structure that is expected see the Dow close on a low of 24,191 (+/-1%) by Friday, March 13, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Gold: 2/29/20 Update
Commercial Traders came within 3% of the projected $1720 with a daily high of $1659 on February 24, 2020. Based on gold sales used to cover stock market margin calls and Commercial Traders gold short positions, a decline in gold is expected to align with the Dow’s decline going into the first week of April. After this decline, gold is expected to continue its move to higher levels.
Silver: 2020+ Perspective
Viewing silver over the long term on a logarithmic chart provides the perspective of an ascending triangle structure, as shown in the chart above. With this perspective, the expectation would be for silver to move back up to its horizontal trend line near the $50 mark. This would be followed by a pullback to the upper 20’s and then move on to a theoretical level of $80.
Gold: 2/22/20 Update
Commercial traders accelerated their schedule with a closing gold price of 1619.63 on February 21, 2020. Based on the current engrbytrade gold model structure estimate, gold is on a trajectory to rise rapidly in 2021 resulting in a peak that is projected to reach $4,600 by the first quarter of 2022. This accelerated pace indicates Commercial Traders will drive prices exponentially higher as time progresses and the peak projected in 2022 will need to move higher. As of February 22, 2020, the gold price points shown below are expected in 2020. Adjustments will be made as needed to align with Commercial Trader activity and increasing volatility.
$1720 : April 23, 2020
$1630 : May 11, 2020
$1830 : August, 12, 2020
$1600 : September 21, 2020
$1890 : December 31, 2020
Decline Into April
On January 3, 2020 it was noted that a decline is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. After reviewing data up to this point calculations indicate this decline is still expected with minor adjustments. The Dow is now expected to drop between February 10, 2020 and April 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) to a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%). Volatility will be extreme during this decline as a significant number of investors try to sell at the same time. If Exchange Insiders delay this decline, it will set the stage for a decline at a later date that will shake the foundation of the financial industry.
Long Term Perspective
Investors continue to buy shares with borrowed funds as they did 300 years ago with the South Sea Company. When prices started to fall in the last half of 1720 speculators went bankrupt and fortunes were lost. The structure shown above represents the Dow from 1973, after the U.S. went off of the gold standard, until February 2020. Timelines for developing the 1720 and 2020 price structures are vastly different, but the chart structures are similar and the underlying element of excessive debt that drives this market is identical.
Gold: Trading Range Low
As noted on 1/6/20, gold hit the $1570 mark on January 5, 2020 at 6.01 p.m. (EST) and was on a path to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid-February before moving higher into mid-August. On February 4, 2020 Commercial Traders accelerated their schedule by dropping gold $23.83 to 1552.91, near the low end of its short term trading range. Today (February 5, 2020), the engrbytrade gold trading model indicates gold is expected to stay within 1% of the February 4, 2020 closing price before moving up to $1750 by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 day).
Dow – 3rd Try
Today’s upward move in the Dow will be the third try for Futures Traders to fill the gap between 28890.5 and 28908 that was left behind on January 26, 2020 at 17:00 (5:00 p.m. EST). Once this is complete, the Dow should continue to move lower.
Review the 15 minute chart.
Gold & Silver Trend
Palladium is providing a preview of what will occur with Gold and Silver. On August 16, 2018 palladium hit a low of 815.20 and is currently above 2300. Recent structures in palladium, gold and silver indicate the acceleration rates for gold and silver will continue to increase. By April 2021, this will place gold near the $4600 mark while silver peaks near $89. Gold is still expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid to late February before moving higher.
Exceeding Structural Limits
If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.
Dow Upper Trend Line
On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold: 1st Quarter Update
Gold hit the $1570 mark on January 5, 2020 at 6.01 p.m. EST. From this point gold is expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid-February before moving higher.
Dow: 1st Quarter 2020
Based on the identification of a Dow turning point occurring by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day), as noted on December 29, 2019, a decline is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow should decline to 20,044 (+/- 1.5%) by March 10, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Note that volatility is expected to increase significantly during this decline.
Gold & Silver Projection for 2021
As noted on November 23, 2019, the current rate of change for gold brought its price within 1% of the $1570 ($1554.30-$1585.70) price target today with a high of $1556.05 at 1:39 p.m. EST. If the current rate of acceleration continues, gold and silver are expected to reach $4,400 and $50, respectively by mid-2021.
Dow Turning Point
Current data indicates the Dow Jones is expected to reach a turning point by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Once this 90 year structure is complete, a long term decline should start and take the Dow below 6,000 by October 2022.
Dow’s Upper Limit
The Dow Jones Index crossed it long-term structural design limit on Friday, December 20, 2019 as it moved through 28,455. It is possible for the Dow to stay in this range until mid-January 2020 before starting a long-term decline.
Dow Structure Stability
The current broadening top formation in the Dow is developing an ominous structural feature. Based on this structure, a rapid move to the upside going into mid-January could present significant downside risk. If the Fed follows through with their $500 billion liquidity intervention in an attempt to avoid another December 2018 decline, the result could lead to an extremely unstable Dow structure in the first quarter of 2020.
Broadening Top Formation
The Dow’s resistance to a decline is reflected in its Broadening Top formation that started in 2018. This price structure typically appears prior to a substantial decline. Over the recent past examples include 1999, and 2007.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold: Long Term
Gold price structure data from 2018-2019 and futures trading data from 2013-2019 indicates international financiers plan to move the price of gold upward using an average rate of 20% per year until 2028. Price structure data received over the next two years is expected to reinforce this outlook.
Gold in 2020
Gold trading data from mid-October through mid-November revised the engrbytrade gold model™ calculation to show a rate of change along the current structural timeline that would place gold on the $1570 (+/-1%) mark by January 3, 2020. Based on the current structure and rate of acceleration, gold is expected to reach $1770 by August 2020.
November-December Decline
The decline discussed in Dow vs Aramco on Nov. 3, 2019 is still expected based on a move up from October 24, 2019 that was extended three days by Market Makers. Friday’s move up in the Dow to 28,000 provided Exchange Insiders with an opportunity to sell to the public as media outlets manipulated retail investor expectations with optimistic news. A decline is still expected to start by November 19, 2019 +/- 1 trading day and continue until December 24, 2019 when the NYSE closes at 1 p.m. EST. This decline now has the potential to reach 24,200 +/- 1%.
Gold’s Current Structure
The current gold price structure was identified based on calculations showing Commercial Futures Traders plans to move prices much higher over the next several years. Preliminary calculations indicate the structural design and acceleration rate of its price should move the value over $4000 before December 2021. Note that forecast adjustments will be made as needed to compensate for Commercial Traders actions during this move up to 2021. In addition to expectations for 2021, work is in progress to confirm a significantly higher price that is projected for 2028.
Dow vs. Aramco
Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019. This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019. A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.