The current broadening top formation in the Dow is developing an ominous structural feature. Based on this structure, a rapid move to the upside going into mid-January could present significant downside risk. If the Fed follows through with their $500 billion liquidity intervention in an attempt to avoid another December 2018 decline, the result could lead to an extremely unstable Dow structure in the first quarter of 2020.
Broadening Top Formation
The Dow’s resistance to a decline is reflected in its Broadening Top formation that started in 2018. This price structure typically appears prior to a substantial decline. Over the recent past examples include 1999, and 2007.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Gold: Long Term
Gold price structure data from 2018-2019 and futures trading data from 2013-2019 indicates international financiers plan to move the price of gold upward using an average rate of 20% per year until 2028. Price structure data received over the next two years is expected to reinforce this outlook.
Gold in 2020
Gold trading data from mid-October through mid-November revised the engrbytrade gold model™ calculation to show a rate of change along the current structural timeline that would place gold on the $1570 (+/-1%) mark by January 3, 2020. Based on the current structure and rate of acceleration, gold is expected to reach $1770 by August 2020.
November-December Decline
The decline discussed in Dow vs Aramco on Nov. 3, 2019 is still expected based on a move up from October 24, 2019 that was extended three days by Market Makers. Friday’s move up in the Dow to 28,000 provided Exchange Insiders with an opportunity to sell to the public as media outlets manipulated retail investor expectations with optimistic news. A decline is still expected to start by November 19, 2019 +/- 1 trading day and continue until December 24, 2019 when the NYSE closes at 1 p.m. EST. This decline now has the potential to reach 24,200 +/- 1%.
Gold’s Current Structure
The current gold price structure was identified based on calculations showing Commercial Futures Traders plans to move prices much higher over the next several years. Preliminary calculations indicate the structural design and acceleration rate of its price should move the value over $4000 before December 2021. Note that forecast adjustments will be made as needed to compensate for Commercial Traders actions during this move up to 2021. In addition to expectations for 2021, work is in progress to confirm a significantly higher price that is projected for 2028.
Dow vs. Aramco
Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019. This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019. A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.
Dow: Aramco IPO
Prior to any significant decline in the stock market, Aramco is expected to complete an initial public offering by December 11, 2019.
Saudi Aramco shares to start trading in December
Dow: Futures Gap Filled
The October 1, 2019 gap down at 10:00 a.m. (EST) in the Dow 30 Futures was filled today (October 15, 2019) with the Dow 30 Futures moving above 26,986.5 at 10:29 a.m. (EST). This structure clears the way for a decline over the next 18 days. Based on this confirmation, final structural calculations indicate the NYSE Dow 30 index is expected to decline to a level of 24,091.99 (+/-1%) by November 8, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2019 Gold
The engrbytrade gold model™ shows a move upward is expected to start next week. Calculations indicate that gold will hit $1716 (+/-1.5%) by December 31, 2019.
Dow: Tuesday Turning Point
A majority of the gap down identified on 10/6/19 was filled today. A down day is expected on Monday followed by an up day on Tuesday to fill the remainder of the gap. Tuesday’s peak will initiate the start of a decline going into November.
Dow: October Turning Point
Time is short for Market Makers. The latest calculations indicate a turning point in the Dow by Monday, October 14, 2019 (+/- 1 day). Preliminary calculations show the Dow is expected to decline to 24,527 (+/-1%) by November 6, 2019, and then move upward for ten days before the next turn to continue the decline.
(Disclaimer)
Dow: Algorithm Adjustment
A gap down occurred in the Dow futures between 26,986.5 and 26,956 on October 1, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Dow Index algorithm is expected to move the Dow up and fill this gap by November 11, 2019. Final computer model adjustments show the Dow dropping to 22,300 (+/- 1.5%) before December 31, 2019.
Dow: Structure Planned
Today’s move in the Dow’s structure indicates a significant move to the downside is planned. If the Dow moves up to 26,900 (+/-0.5%) by October 11, 2019 (+/-1 trading day), a high probability exits for the Dow to decline to 23,045 (+/-1%) before December 31, 2019.
Dow: 90 Years Later
Dow: 8 Trading Days
As of the close on October 1, 2019, the Dow is expected to move higher over the next 8 (+/-1) trading days before turning down. There is a very high probability (80% chance) that the Dow will hit a low of 25,928 (+/-1%) before November 5, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). There is also a 60% chance that the Dow will hit 24,951 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019.
(Disclaimer)
Dow: Decline and Volatility
Based on current futures trading data calculations, a significant amount of potential energy exists in the financial system to support a sharp decline in the Dow before the end of 2019. This decline could start as early as September 30, 2019 and move the Dow down to levels last seen during the week of December 17, 2018. A sharp rally is also expected to follow this decline with a recovery of at least 60%, followed by another decline. The volatility Index will move to extremely high levels during this time.
Gold: Update
Following up with the “Gold vs Liquidity” entry on 9/22/19, the final CME October 2019 Gold Futures price today was 1495.90. This close was well within the 1% range noted on 9/22/19. Watch the price move higher going into December 2019.
Gold’s Next Move
The September 25, 2019 final CME Gold Futures settlement price was 1512.90. This was within 1% of 1498 (1483.02-1512.98) projected on September 22, 2019. Preliminary data from an update of the gold computer model indicates a near-term peak of 1675 (+/-1%) is expected on December 11, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day).
Gold vs Liquidity
Following a truncated peak in the Dow, futures trading data and gold model structures currently indicate metals prices are expected to move higher this year. Calculations now show gold moving to 1498 (+/-1%) by September 26, 2019 (+/-1 trading day) before moving higher. Preliminary calculations show a gold price in the range of 1675 by December 20, 2019 as the Fed continues to add liquidity. This move will occur in an environment where currencies, such as the Australian Dollar and British Pound are in decline, and copper exhibits a structure that presents the beginning of a long term move to significantly higher levels.
Dow: Structure Peak
A daily high of 27,272.17 occurred at 11:39 a.m. on September 19, 2019. This was within 0.5% of the projected closing high of 27,386.27 and one trading day earlier than expected, as noted on September 17, 2019. This peak is expected to be the starting point for a long term decline.
Dow: Peak Calculation
The Dow is currently within 2.2% of the 27,738.40 calculated on August 31, 2019. Daily trades indicate Market Makers are being held to a strict timeline with a projected closing high of 27,386.27 (+/- 0.5%) on Friday, September 20, 2019 or Monday, September 23, 2019. Upon reaching this target, Market Makers are expected to start the engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model™ shown above. Preliminary calculations indicate a low of 19,000 (+/-2%) will occur after moving down from point 8 on the chart. A time frame of several months has been planned for this decline.
Gold: Decline Set
Futures trading data confirms that Commercial Futures Traders are in the final steps of setting up a structure that is expected to take the price of gold down to 1260 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019. When this move is complete, gold is then expected to move higher in 2020.
Gold: Structure Update
A shallow decline to the 1475-1480 range going into October or November followed by a move above 1557 in December or January will confirm Commercial Traders are accelerating their timeline for a rapid rise in the metals. Prices could move exponentially higher as early as the last half of 2021.
Dow: Tracking the Dow
The Dow is on track day-for-day toward 27,738.40 (+/- 1.0%) with a peak by September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this peak, the Dow is still expected to start a long term decline with the first short leg down to 24,870 (+/-1.0%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). If there are any changes to this scenario prior to September 24, 2019, they will be posted.