On December 27, 2023 it was noted that Market Makers were expected to push the Dow Jones Index to 38,120, which is 100 times the close on September 3, 1929.
Today the NYSE Dow hit a high of 38,109.20 and the CBOT Mini Dow Jones Industrial – $5 March 24 contract hit a high of $38,209.00. The average between the two is 38,159.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Index Bullish Sentiment is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on August 11-19, 2022, December 1-2, 2022, and July 26, 2023, as shown in the 2nd chart below. Overall, there is a high probability of a decline in 2024 that is similar to what occurred between November 2021 and October 2022 based on daily Dow calculation results from November 17, 2021 and December 15, 2023. This aligns with the expected decline in the 10-Yr Note interest rate in 2024.
Recent changes in the Dow chart structure have prompted a review of the Engrbytrade™ 1974 Model in comparison to what was developed between March 23, 2022 and January 23, 2024. Initial observations indicate a decline could extend into 2025.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
