On March 10, 2025 it was reported that hedge funds were unwinding risk just as they did in the early days of COVID. On March 11, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 17. During the trading day the index hit a low of 13. On March 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 68.80. The following NAAIM chart is an update of an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points. This chart illustrates how Fear & Greed Index lows are following a trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move sideways for at least one week. This could last as long as 30 days before moving higher.
In addition to this, the CNN “Safe Haven Demand” chart shown below provides some perspective on the long term performance expectations between stocks and bonds. The last low point was on August 5, 2024.
