On July 19, 2025, it was noted that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering their target rate was very low. The following charts illustrate 2007 and 2025 structural angles are similar. They also show when the first Fed rate cut occurred on September 18, 2007. As of September 13, 2025 the CMEFedwatch site indicates there is a 93.4% chance of the Fed lowering its target rate range to 4.00 – 4.25. Rates should continue to move lower in 2025 and 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
