On July 25, 2026 it was noted that there is a high probability of a substantial decline in rates, even if they move up slightly over the short term. At this point we are right back where we were in October 2018. Jerome Powell started his term on February 5, 2018 when the 10-Yr rate was 2.7% and the 30-Yr rate was 3.0%. By October 5, 2018 the 10-Yr closed at 3.2% and the 30-Yr hit 3.4% after moving out of its ascending triangle. By October 10, 2018 stock markets started a sharp decline going into late December 2018.
Kevin Warsh started his term as Fed Chairman on May 22, 2026. The 10-Yr was 4.5% and the 30-Yr was 5.0%. On July 31, 2026 the 30-Yr made a steady move out of its ascending triangle structure, just as it did on October 3, 2018.
Based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers, a pull back in the markets with lower rates should follow.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
