On August 4, 2026 it was noted that the 30-Yr was a in position similar to that of October 2018. In 2018 the 30-Yr moved out of its ascending triangle during the first week of October. This year the 30-Yr rate moved out of its ascending triangle in late July.
As of September 11, 2026 the CME FedWatch shows a probability of a rate hike is 86.3%. If that occurs, borrowing costs, mortgage loans, and consumer credit rates will move higher as well.
Based on the steady accumulation of TLT by insiders and Market Makers it appears they are still expecting a pull back in the markets followed by lower interest rates.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
