On September 11, 2026 the CME FedWatch showed a probability of 86.3% for a rate hike. After the Fed meeting on September 15th -16th they announced a change in the target range to 3.75 – 4.00. US10Yr rates rose quickly from 5.01% on September 15, 2026 to 5.29% on September 30, 2026. The US30Yr rate moved from 5.37% to 5.63%.
In the interim, Market Makers continue their accumulation of interest rate derivatives, such as TLT. This accumulation has been underway for three years, and is much longer and larger than previous periods, such as 2018. They are also accumulating US7-10Yr derivatives such as IEF. In both cases volume is more important than price. Market Makers and insiders are preparing for rates to collapse.
As always, volume, not price, is the principal guarantor of the markets direction.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 129
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
