The ICE BofA high yield option adjusted spread index has been moving in a pattern similar to that of late 2024 and early 2025. When the index dropped below 2.65 a decline in the stock markets followed. This was also the case in 2007. The latest readings starting on January 22, 2026 indicates a stock market pullback is expected this year.
January 24, 2007 = 2.63
April 26, 2007 = 2.63
November 8, 2024 = 2.63
January 17, 2025 = 2.64
January 22, 2026 = 2.64
June 17, 2026 = 2.63
August 27, 2026 = 2.63
References:
1. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
