Intermarket structural analysis research
Additional structural and intermarket futures trading data calculations show Crude Oil (WTI) is still in the process of repeating 2008 and is expected to move to 159.76 (+/- 1%).
March 2, 2022 OPEC meeting ends after just 10 minutes, plans to stay course on oil production
26th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes
Daily engrbytrade™ structural and Crude Oil calculations indicate this move up is similar to 2008 and still expected to reach 149.98 (+/- 1 %).
Aramco has a history of implementing very large transactions prior to major market moves. In March 2008 Aramco sold their stake in Ashmore. Two months later the stock market peaked and started to fall for the remainder of 2008. On December 11, 2019, Aramco shares started trading with its initial public offering. Two months later the stock market peaked and collapsed in February and March of 2020. On February 13, 2022 Saudi Arabia transferred Aramco shares worth $80 billion to the state’s sovereign wealth fund. Following this trend would mean that a stock market peak in mid-April 2022 would be expected prior to a significant decline in 2022.
March 18, 2008
Aramco sells Petron stake to Ashmore for $550 mln
December 6, 2019
Saudi Aramco shares to start trading December 11: Tadawul exchange
February 13, 2022
Saudi Arabia transfers Aramco shares worth $80 bln to state fund
The pullback in crude oil noted on February 15, 2022 hit 89.06 in overnight trading on February 18, 2022 and moved up to 111.47 in last night’s trading session. Structural calculations indicate a parabolic move up to 149.98 (+/- 1 %) is expected prior to a sharp decline.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude oil continues to develop a broadening structure (shown above) similar to what was developed between September 14, 2009 and January 3, 2011. Structural calculations indicate a pullback down to 85.42 is expected prior to moving up to 110.63 (+/- 2%)
Revised intermarket WTI futures trading data calculations show an upcoming move similar to what occurred between December 20, 2010 and April 4, 2011. If the proposed second Aramco listing is issued, a stock market decline can be expected.
Feb 7, 2022
Now is ‘perfect time’ for a second Saudi Aramco public listing, former executive says
A stock market decline started in February 2020 following the initial trading of Aramco shares in mid-December 2019.
December 11, 2019
Saudi Aramco shares surge 10% as historic IPO begins trading
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Changes within Crude Oil intermarket futures trading data indicate WTI is being manipulated to develop a broadening structure (shown above). This is similar to what was developed between September 14, 2009 and January 3, 2011. If WTI moves above the upper trend line, then a price of $134 would be expected before moving lower.
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate crude oil has hit its peak and is in a similar position to where it was on October 11, 2018. A long term decline has been initiated.
Initial calculations indicated crude oil was expected to move significantly higher in 2022. Additional research indicates crude oil is now in the process of building a parabolic structure that is similar to the January 18, 2007 to July 11, 2008 structure. At this point the current structure is in a similar position to where it was on February 15, 2008. The rate of acceleration is expected to increase and reach 101.79 by February 2022 before seeing a brief pullback.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Over the last two trading days daily engrbytrade™ WTI Crude Oil calculations and underlying structural calculations show several changes indicating crude oil is expected to move significantly higher in 2022. Initial calculations show crude oil reaching a level of 112.91 before moving lower. The expanding wedge structure shown in the chart above, along with underlying futures trading data calculations are very similar to what appeared in June 2010.
Intermarket futures trading data confirms crude oil has started a long-term decline based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. This decline is expected to be similar in nature to previous declines that include August 28, 2013 to February 11, 2016 (2 years 5 months 14 days: 897 days) and October 3, 2018 to April 20, 2020 (1 year 6 months 17 days: 565 days). The end result will be a return to the 1986 and 1998 base level of 10.80 after a period of decline that can take as long as 2 years.
Long term preliminary intermarket futures trading data indicates crude oil is completing a topping process based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. A volatile decline is expected to last as long as 2 years before reaching a level below 20.00 by 2023. Additional data will be needed during the remainder of 2021 to clarify this expected outcome.
In addition to the Dow’s expected decline in October 2021, Crude Oil (WTI) is in the process of completing the replication of its February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure based on futures trading data calculations, as noted on August 7, 2021. On October 8, 2021, Crude Oil (WTI) moved into the 78.17 (+/- 2%) range with a close of $79.35. A significant decline in crude oil is expected to start next week and last until late December 2021 with a move down to the $35.00 level as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
On August 7, 2021 it was noted that Crude oil (WTI) appeared to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. An abrupt change within in the intermarket futures structural data this week indicates a sharp decline is expected during the next two months.
Crude oil (WTI) appears to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. Based on futures trading data calculations the position of Crude Oil on Friday, August 6, 2021 would be a nominal equivalent to Crude Oil on August 13, 2018. This structure indicates a peak of 78.17 (+/- 2%) is expected by October 1, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). A sharp decline in Crude Oil is also expected during the last quarter of 2021.
It was apparent yesterday that Designated Market Makers are expecting Crude Oil to move higher.
Current structure calculations and preliminary measurements indicate Crude Oil (WTI) is expected to continue moving higher during the next quarter. A preliminary timeline shows WTI peaking in late September 2021 with a price target of 95.39 before moving significantly lower in 2022 – 2023.
Preliminary futures trading data structural calculations indicate an algorithm is moving Crude Oil (WTI) within a structure that is similar to what was developed in 2018. At this point current pricing is in the same relative position as it was in May 2018. If this trend continues, crude will align with a sharp decline expected between October 2021 and December 2021. Additional data will be needed over the coming weeks to confirm this.
Calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay in a range that will support a move upward in crude oil during the next nine months.