Intermarket structural analysis research
On April 28, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated the Euro would continue to follow a descending triangle pattern. Current Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is changing direction for a move upward. This is reflected within the context of a descending broadening wedge shown below. The Euro is expected to move up to the 120 range as the US Dollar moves lower.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On January 20, 2024 it was noted that futures traders were still not positioned for the U.S. Dollar to move to higher levels. Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations currently indicate British Pound commercial traders are in the process of positioning for the U.S. Dollar to start moving higher in 2024. Arrows in the charts below show specific points where Commercial Traders have taken significant short positions in the British Pound over the last thirteen years in preparation for a rise in the U.S. Dollar.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A review of Engrbytrade™ futures trader positions indicates the Euro is expected to continue a long term decline going into 2024 and 2025. Engrbytrade™ Euro futures trading data calculation results from July 21, 2023 are similar to the results received on April 13, 2018 and January 29, 2021, as shown in the first chart below. U.S. Dollar calculations also indicate that futures traders are still not positioned for a move in the U.S. Dollar to higher levels, as shown in the second chart.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate futures traders have moved into a position above a long term trend line that runs through June 2020. A brief move upward is expected followed by a decline to the Dollar’s lower trend line in 2024.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily engrbytrade™ Gold to U.S. Dollar calculations on December 6, 2023 gave an indirect signal that aligned with a stock market peak that is similar to what occurred on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021. The declines noted below show what occurred after receiving the indirect Gold to U.S. Dollar signals on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021.
This observation also aligns with S&P500 traders positioning for a decline, as noted on November 20, 2023.
Dow:
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -35.27%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -16.125%
NDX
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -22.92%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -32.33%
S&P500
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -31.71%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -21.76%
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 24, 2023 engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations show the U.S. Dollar is expected to start moving higher. Similar historical signals occurred on July 28, 2021, January 20, 2022, and July 13, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Weekly engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations over the last two weeks indicates there has been an abrupt change in futures trader positions of U.S Dollars that is similar to what occurred in November 2010. The following charts provide some perspective on what is expected over the next several months. This change also aligns with future expectations of silver moving higher, as noted on September 24, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of August 29, 2023 futures traders accumulated an extremely large number of positions in the British Pound that are similar to what they accumulated in July 2014. Using this data as a leading indicator the end result of this accumulation is an expectation of a sharp decline in the British Pound, along with a corresponding sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar in 2023 and 2024. Using the 2014 U.S. Dollar structure, a move up to 150 over the next 12 months would be in line with related Fibonacci calculations. This will have a significant deflationary impact on major currencies and commodities in 2023 and 2024.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation. As of 06:56 AM EST the US Dollar held a 68% bullish rating over the last three days. It is not reflected in news reports indicating traders are planning to continue selling the Dollar. This ongoing accumulation period is expected to provide a move higher, just as it did in 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It was recently noted that the velocity of money and money supply have not been this low since 1932 when Great Depression unemployment was 23%, GDP growth was -13% and the annual inflation rate was -11% along with 1700 banks failing. The current situation appears to be much different according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing an unemployment rate of 3.7%, inflation rate of 5.3% as of May 2023, along with three bank failures in the first half of 2023, including First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank.
A review of Federal Funds Effective Rate hikes since 2009 shows the current economic situation will change dramatically over the next three years based on the +4.86% change in the Fed Funds rate since March 2022. The Velocity of M2 Money Stock is expected to continue its decline, as it did between Q3 2006 and Q3 2009. This will include a prolonged decline in the Dow, S&P500 and NASDAQ along with a recession at best between 2023 and 2026.
January 1999 (4.63%) to July 2000 (6.54%) = +1.91%
June 2004(1.03%) to August 2006 (5.25%) = +4.22 %
December 2015 (0.24%) to April 2019 (2.42) = +2.18%
March 2022 (0.20) to May 2023 (5.06) = +4.86%
References:
Velocity of Money: Definition, Formula, and Examples
Money Supply Growth Falls to Depression-Era Levels for Second Month in April
Timeline of the Great Depression
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review; M2 and Monetary Policy September /October 1989, Robert L Hetzel, page 15.
Bank Failures in Brief – 2023
The Future of Money
Eswar Prasad, WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, June 2023
Go to the 32:30 mark:
“You can have programmability. Units of Central Bank Digital Currency with expiry dates. You could have, as I argue in my book a potentially better than some people might see, or a darker world where a Government decides that units of Central Bank money can be used to purchase some things, but not other things that are deemed less desirable….”
On June 28, 2023 daily calculations indicated the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. When the Dollar moves higher bitcoin will move lower, as shown in the chart below. During this move the Engrbytrade™ bitcoin model indicates bitcoin will move below 10,000. This will allow major banks to accumulate bitcoin and use it as a bank reserve for future central bank requirements. Upon completion of the banks accumulation of bitcoin at lower levels, bitcoin is then expected to move well above its November 2021 high in the coming years, just as the Euro moved from 0.56 in February 1985 to 1.40 in September 1992.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On March 29, 2023 it was noted that daily calculations indicated the US Dollar was expected to turn and trend higher. Since that date, daily Engrbytrade™ Dollar calculations continue to indicate a strong accumulation of dollars. Arrows provided in the Dollar charts shown below identify specific accumulation points. It appears an accumulation process was initiated during the 2nd quarter of 2023, and is similar to what occurred during the 2nd quarter of 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations show the S&P500 is expected to see its long term upward trend continue into 2023.
A detailed review was conducted with S&P500 futures trading data to identify specific time frames when a change of direction occurred based on its relative value to the US Dollar. The result of this review revealed a consistent large scale pattern since 2006 where several points were identified as a validation of upward movement. There were only two points (1/30/07 and 4/3/21) that occurred several months before the S&P500 started to move lower. Since the low in October 2022, upward movement was once again validated on 4/4/23.
Within this 2006 to 2023 time frame of large scale pattern validation points are numerous periods of volatility, such as short term declines noted below. Prospective declines should be monitored with the appropriate data and calculations. The average decline within the follow group is 16.14%. Expectations for a decline in the coming weeks still exist, as noted on June 20, 2023.
15% decline between April 26, 2010 and July 2, 2010
16% decline between July 25, 2011 and August 8, 2011
10% decline between August 18, 2015 and August 25, 2015
11% decline between December 30, 2015 and February 11, 2016
9% decline between January 29, 2018 and February 8, 2018
19% decline between October 3, 2018 and December 24, 2018
33% decline between February 19, 2020 and March 23, 2020 (Outlier)
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Engrbytrade™ daily calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. This turn follows a similar three month pattern setup when calculations from December 23, 2021 and March 21, 2022 indicated a move up was expected. On December 27, 2022 the first signal was received. Three months later on March 28, 2023 the second signal was received. This move upward aligns with an expectation of a decline in the stock markets during 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to continue moving lower. Similar daily calculation results noting a decline occurred on November 15, 2022. Weekly futures trading data calculations also indicate the Dollar will continue to move lower in 2023. In addition to this the effect of a declining Dollar will cause gold and silver to continue moving higher. Current intermarket futures trading data structural calculation results for gold and silver are similar to that of January 27, 2009.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 9, 2022, it was noted that the US Dollar had an upper trend line angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis and was similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. The chart below shows the US Dollar hit a high of 114.75 on September 28, 2022 with an upper trend line angle of 24.19°. This indicates a predetermined course was developed after 2008 using an upper trend line angle of 25.225° (+/-1.035°). Current intermarket futures trading data calculations show the US Dollar is expected to move higher, repeating a move upward similar to what occurred during the first half of 2001. As the US Dollar moves toward the upper trend line, a decline in value is expected for the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Copper, Euro, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Platinum.
During the Dollar’s initial rise in 2001, the Dow moved up into mid-February 2001 and then had a sharp decline going into the end of March 2001. Preliminary data indicates the Dow is expected to conduct a move similar to this during the first quarter of 2023.
Long term intermarket futures trading data calculations also indicate gold and silver are expected to develop a predetermined inverse chart structure of the US Dollar that is similar to the time frame between January 2001 and March 2008, as shown in the charts below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The chart below shows the US Dollar currently has a trend line that is similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. Each upper trend line has an angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis. When the US Dollar reaches this upper trend line a change in direction is expected to occur in other major currencies, interest rates, gold, silver, stock markets, etc. just as they did in 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022 as currencies such as the Euro, and British Pound move lower. The result will be a move by the U.S. Dollar toward its upper trendline shown in the chart below. This is a repeat performance of what occurred going into 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 21, 2022 it was noted that U.S. Dollar intermarket futures trading data calculations indicated currency traders were expected to move from currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar into the U.S. Dollar. The pace of this move has accelerated with declines in the Swiss Franc, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations and structural calculations the U.S. Dollar is expected to move up to 110.80 by November 2022.
U.S. Dollar intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate currency traders are expected to move from the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar into the U.S. Dollar in a way that is similar to what occurred between December 4, 2018 and December 24, 2018. Since the Dow and S&P500 are expected to move lower this month, steady selling of very large blocks of stock will drive interest rates lower.
With daily engrbytrade™ gold calculations indicating a sharp decline is coming, this will be a result of the U.S. Dollar moving higher. The U.S. Dollar move will also cause intermarket products such as crude oil, 10-Yr Note rate, 30-Yr Note rate, bitcoin, silver, euro, and British Pound to decline, as they did in August 2018.
Based on Daily engrbytrade™ Gold calculations, intermarket futures trading data for gold, and Dollar futures trading data, the Dollar is expected to continue moving higher during the first quarter of 2022.
As noted on August 1, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicated a rise in the US Dollar during the remainder of 2021. This rise is expected to continue going into the end of 2021.