As noted on December 3, 2021 the Dow moved above 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart today closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show the Dow is expected to move higher.
Dow: March 2022
When the Senate approved a Continuing Resolution it deferred the start of a market decline noted on November 30, 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. This approval action aligns with the 1929 peak structure and would place a Dow peak near 38,000 by March 2022. Pending any further action by Congress or the Fed, a significant decline would follow the March peak. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations will track the progress of this move.
Dow: Closing Gaps
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed the Dow is expected to move higher as noted on November 27, 2021. This move up is expected to reach 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart for the purpose of closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. It has also been observed that very large block trading (>1M) is limited.
Dow: 2018 4th Quarter
In addition to the non-existent accumulation of very large block trades on Monday, November 29, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicate a 2018 4th quarter decline is expected to start between December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021.
Dow: Limited Accumulation
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a retracement to 35782 in the futures market is expected prior to moving lower. This retracement structure would be similar to what occurred between September 21, 2021 and September 27, 2021. It appears that a limited number of very large blocks were accumulated during the sharp decline on November 26, 2021.
Dow: 83% Update
On November 1, 2021 the Dow: 83% post noted that the Dow would start a decline on November 8, 2021. Congress passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on November 6, 2021. This was followed by the Dow peaking on Monday November 8, 2021 with a new all-time high while a significant number of very large block trades occurred between November 8, 2021 and November 9, 2021. Prior to this move, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations shifted to indicate the Dow will continue developing a declining structure. The chart shown below provides an update to the rising wedge discussed on November 1, 2021. As of Friday, November 19, 2021 the Dow landed on the 83% mark and is expected to continue moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1929 vs 2021 Peak
The Dow hit an all-time high of 36565.73 on November 8, 2021. Prior to reaching this peak, calculations indicate the Dow repeated a unique set of daily structures similar to what occurred between July 29, 1929 and the peak on September 3, 1929. Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the Dow will continue to develop a declining structure similar to what occurred between September 11, 1929 and October 4, 1929. The current decline is expected to continue into mid-December 2021.
Dow: Debt Limit
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and large block trade patterns continue to indicate a decline is expected to occur. Additional data shows this decline will follow Treasury debt limit concerns going into mid-December.
Dow: Mid-November Decline
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a brief mid-November decline will take place before moving higher. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between May 10, 2021 and May 19, 2021.
Dow: Calculation Update
Based on Congress passing the $1 trillion infrastructure bill and upcoming $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better Plan”, structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 38,610 (+/- 2.5%) before moving lower.
Dow: $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill
On November 5, 2021 the House passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. This last minute approval provides Wall Street with the means to complete a 1929 peak. Calculations will be revised as needed to incorporate this change.
Disclaimer
Dow: Transports Leading Indicator
On November 2, 2021 the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index hit an all-time high of 18,246.51 with a significant number of large blocks trading during the day. Tuesday’s candlestick formation is typical for a market that is peaking.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 83%
Over the last three years, one key trait of the Dow (and S&P500) that stands out has been the rising wedge format with a consistent drop point on the 83% (+/-1%) mark, as shown below. The Dow is expected to peak by November 4, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) followed by a sharp decline starting the week of November 8, 2021.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Dow: Turning Down
Daily calculations indicate the Dow is completing its move through the rising wedge discussed on October 25, 2021 and initiating a process to start a decline. This decline is expected to move the Dow back down to 33,613 (+/-1%) using a structure similar to what was developed between June 1, 2021 and June 18, 2021.
Dow: 1989 Nikkei 225
On December 29, 1989 the Nikkei 225 hit a peak of 38,957. Thirteen years later it was below 8,000. It should be noted that the Nikkei 225 parabolic move from 1960 to 1989 looks similar to the Dow parabolic move from 1990 to 2021.
Dow: October Rising Wedge
As noted on October 20, 2021, large block distributions have been observed each day. This is very similar to what occurred between June 21, 2021 and August 16, 2021. This trend upward is expected to be complete by October 28, 2021.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Daily Calculation Changes
History shows that a stock market collapse is expected to follow Blackstone’s next major effort to launch an IPO for Building Materials Europe BV in 2022. It is also expected this IPO could be pulled back into 2021 in order to line up with interest rate hikes, and the Fed’s scaling back of central bank bond purchases. The reason for a 2021 IPO is based on the following:
1. The Blackstone Group $4.133 billion IPO occurred on June 21, 2007 prior to a long market decline and collapse going into 2009.
2. Blackstone was involved in the Aramco IPO which was accelerated to start trading on December 11, 2019, just before the 2020 stock market collapse. Gary Quin (North Atlantic Acquisition Company) helped Blackstone with the Aramco IPO.
Other short term planning elements include:
1. On September 23, 2021 it was reported that Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin scaling back asset purchases as soon as November 2021 and complete the process by mid-2022.
2. Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders made an announcement to get ready for “significantly earlier” interest rate rises due to inflation pressure.
3. Goldman Sachs is expecting a huge market melt-up in the coming weeks.
4. Distributions continue, as it appears central bankers, investment bankers and investment management firms are coordinating a final move similar to what occurred between August 13, 1929 and September 3, 1929.
5. Engrbytrade™ daily Dow calculations indicate a shift has occurred that would support a move similar to that of March 4, 2021 to April 12, 2021. This move would allow the Dow to hit 38,000 in a very short period of time and align with the original Engrbytrade™ perspective.
Update note:
It looks like Blackstone found a way to leverage $1.2 billion before markets reach their peak.
https://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL4N2RG3H0?il=0
Dow: Distributions Continue
On June 5, 2020 a long-term process was started to distribute large quantities of stock from hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms and Market Maker trading accounts to retail investors, pension funds, etc. Within the Dow 30 group, every stock has had significant distributions, as described by Richard Ney, during periods when prices moved sharply higher. As the economy continues to collapse, many of the large block sellers on Wall Street will be out of the market and retail investors will watch the value of their investment accounts dwindle while stock markets decline. The main stream media will be used to bolster confidence in the markets while pension funds are forced to sell when prices drop and they cannot meet their obligations. This process is no different than what occurred prior to previous market declines, such as 1929, and 2008.
Dow: October Decline
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Dow continues to track with the October 2007 to December 2007 structure. Short term debt ceiling agreements will result in an October decline going into November 2, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) where the Dow is expected to reach a low of 31121.15 (+/- 1%).
Dow: December 2007
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
The current Dow structure is a repeat of October 2007 to December 2007. The next move by market makers will be a reflection of December 27, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Dow: Algorithm Adjustment
In the October 1, 2021 post, it was noted that the last day of an initial decline was expected on October 13, 2021 (+1/- 1 trading day). Today stock exchange algorithms made an adjustment to the decline timeline where the Dow is now expected to reach a low of 31107.59 (+/- 1%) by October 12, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: Initial Decline
The Dow continues to track with the September 23, 2008 to September 30, 2008 structure. An initial decline is expected from October 4, 2021 through October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day). This decline has the potential to move the Dow down to 30521 (+/- 1%).
Dow: 2008 vs 2021
Structural and intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to have similar results between the July 15, 2008 to September 22, 2008 Dow structure and the June 18, 2021 to September 28, 2021 Dow structure. This, along with strategic positioning of major currencies discussed in the September 25, 2021 post indicates a significant decline in the Dow is expected during the next 13 trading days (+/- 1 trading day). This decline will have a negative impact on various financial instruments and commodities.
Dow: Entered Target Range
On September 27, 2021 the Dow entered its 1% target range (with a high of 35061.12) as noted on September 20, 2021. There is a 60% chance the Dow will reach 35,359 by October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: Daily Gap Filled
The gap between the Dow September 17, 2021 close and September 18, 2021 open was filled today. This confirms a move upward is expected to continue into October 2021, as noted on September 20, 2021.
All that is need now is for the Fed to stop buy bonds and the Bank of England to start raising interest rates.