Category: Dow

History shows that a stock market collapse is expected to follow Blackstone’s next major effort to launch an IPO for Building Materials Europe BV in 2022.  It is also expected this IPO could be pulled back into 2021 in order to line up with interest rate hikes, and the Fed’s scaling back of central bank bond purchases.  The reason for a 2021 IPO is based on the following:
1. The Blackstone Group $4.133 billion IPO occurred on June 21, 2007 prior to a long market decline and collapse going into 2009.
2. Blackstone was involved in the Aramco IPO which was accelerated to start trading on December 11, 2019, just before the 2020 stock market collapse. Gary Quin (North Atlantic Acquisition Company) helped Blackstone with the Aramco IPO.

Other short term planning elements include:
1. On September 23, 2021 it was reported that Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin scaling back asset purchases as soon as November 2021 and complete the process by mid-2022.
2. Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders made an announcement to get ready for “significantly earlier” interest rate rises due to inflation pressure.
3. Goldman Sachs is expecting a huge market melt-up in the coming weeks.
4. Distributions continue, as it appears central bankers, investment bankers and investment management firms are coordinating a final move similar to what occurred between August 13, 1929 and September 3, 1929.
5. Engrbytrade™ daily Dow calculations indicate a shift has occurred that would support a move similar to that of March 4, 2021 to April 12, 2021. This move would allow the Dow to hit 38,000 in a very short period of time and align with the original Engrbytrade™ perspective.

Update note:
It looks like Blackstone found a way to leverage $1.2 billion before markets reach their peak.
https://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL4N2RG3H0?il=0

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On June 5, 2020 a long-term process was started to distribute large quantities of stock from hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms and Market Maker trading accounts to retail investors, pension funds, etc. Within the Dow 30 group, every stock has had significant distributions, as described by Richard Ney, during periods when prices moved sharply higher.  As the economy continues to collapse, many of the large block sellers on Wall Street will be out of the market and retail investors will watch the value of their investment accounts dwindle while stock markets decline.  The main stream media will be used to bolster confidence in the markets while pension funds are forced to sell when prices drop and they cannot meet their obligations. This process is no different than what occurred prior to previous market declines, such as 1929, and 2008.

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In the October 1, 2021 post, it was noted that the last day of an initial decline was expected on October 13, 2021 (+1/- 1 trading day).  Today stock exchange algorithms made an adjustment to the decline timeline where the Dow is now expected to reach a low of 31107.59 (+/- 1%) by October 12, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).

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The Dow continues to track with the September 23, 2008 to September 30, 2008 structure. An initial decline is expected from October 4, 2021 through October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day). This decline has the potential to move the Dow down to 30521 (+/- 1%).

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Structural and intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to have similar results between the July 15, 2008 to September 22, 2008 Dow structure and the June 18, 2021 to September 28, 2021 Dow structure.  This, along with strategic positioning of major currencies discussed in the September 25, 2021 post indicates a significant decline in the Dow is expected during the next 13 trading days (+/- 1 trading day).   This decline will have a negative impact on various financial instruments and commodities.

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On September 27, 2021 the Dow entered its 1% target range (with a high of 35061.12) as noted on September 20, 2021.  There is a 60% chance the Dow will reach 35,359 by October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).

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The gap between the Dow September 17, 2021 close and September 18, 2021 open was filled today.  This confirms a move upward is expected to continue into October 2021, as noted on September 20, 2021.

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With the sharp decline today, updates to short term algorithm calculations indicate a move up to 35,359 (+/-1%) by October 13, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).

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Yesterday’s 292 point decline provided an update to short term algorithm calculations that included an extended duration with a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 by October 6, 2021.

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Monitoring of short term algorithm calculations indicates a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 in the futures market by Sept 20, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). Essentially a repeat of the structure developed between August 19, 2021 and August 25, 2021.

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Based on futures trading data calculations, exchange insiders are developing two distinct scenarios for a decline.

1. A Dow structure similar to the October – December decline in 2018.
2. A Dow structure similar to the August – October decline in 2008.

As of today, there is a 52% chance the upcoming decline will be similar to the August – October 2008 crash.  What is very clear is that the U.S. Dollar will be an important part of this decline. A significant shift from global currencies and stocks into the U.S. Dollar will take place.

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Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate plans are progressing for the Dow to peak after September 16, 2021 and start a decline during the last quarter of 2021.  This move is expected to be similar to October –December 2018 with the US Dollar moving higher during this period.  Upon completion of this decline, the Dow is expected to move on to higher levels following the engrbytrade perspective.

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The Dow’s 15 minute futures chart structure between August 23, 2021 and August 27, 2021 appears to be giving Wall Street what they want.  The right-angled and descending broadening formation will provide a pathway for the Dow to move higher.

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A warning from Fed President Robert Kaplan indicates a peak in the Dow could come much sooner than expected.  Underlying futures trading data calculations indicate positions in the US Dollar are now in alignment with calculations from August 11, 2008 when the Dow hit its peak prior to moving lower.

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Based on a start date and time of July 26, 2021 at 4:15 a.m. the Dow appears to be forming an ascending triangle within a 15 minute futures chart.  This structure would support a move to higher levels in August 2021.

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On July 28, 2021 the Federal Reserve issued a policy directive to complete a 1993 to 2021 Dow structure.  The Dow is expected to move to 38,000 (+/- 1%) in August 2021.  Following this move, the Federal Reserve should make a decision to raise margin rates during their Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 26-28, 2021. Retail traders will be fully invested as institutional traders complete their liquidation of equities.  A significant decline is planned for the last quarter of 2021.

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Dow Futures Trading data and structural research related to the July 4, 2021 post continues to indicate a trend of moving to higher levels that align with the Dow.  This is expected to occur between July and September 2021 while the NASDAQ and SP500 trend higher.

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Structural research indicates the Federal Reserve started developing a stock market model in 1913 that ultimately drove prices higher going into September 1929 before collapsing the markets.  Comparing data structures covering the last 28 years this same model has taken shape on a scale that is 100 times larger than the 1913 to 1929 model.  As of July 2, 2021 a closing price of 34,786 in the current model would be within 1% of a relative position of 344.7 in the Dow structure on July 25, 1929.  Assuming the Federal Reserve continues to support this model, the Dow would be expected to reach 38,120 (+/- 1%) by September 2021 before collapsing.  Research also indicates key areas of Dow Futures Trading data show a trend shift that would support a scenario for a final move to higher levels between July and September 2021.

 

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Today, shortly after 8:00 a.m. (EST) when an announcement of a deal with the Senate infrastructure group was made, Dow algorithms were modified from a structural decline similar to that of March 2020 to a retracement structure found between November 27, 2007 and December 10, 2007.  A decline is expected with a move down in the futures market to 31,712 (+/- 1%) by August 4, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).

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Data structures developed as of today indicate the Dow is expected to decline to 30,538 (+/- 1%) by July 15, 2021. These same structures are also following a path that is similar to 2008. Based on existing structures and current timeline, there is a 90% chance stock markets will collapse in October 2021.

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The Dow moved up to within 1% of 33,818 as noted this morning at 4:44 a.m. (EST).  A move to a significantly lower level is expected to start by Wednesday, June 23, 2021.  Structural data will be reviewed prior to this move.

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On June 19, 2021 it was noted that based on algorithm adjustments the Dow would move down to 32,756 (+/- 1%) by Monday, June 21, 2021.  On June 20 at 11:00 p.m. the Dow hit a low of 32,903 and was within the applicable 1% range.  A retracement upward to 33,818 (+/- 1%)  is expected by Thursday, June 24, 2021 before starting a move to significantly lower levels.

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