As noted on October 21, 2022 the Dow moved within a primary target range of 32,210 (+/- 1 %) on October 27, 2022. It also hit a secondary target range of 33,043 (+/-1%) with a high of 33,000 in the futures on October 28, 2022. A brief move up to 33,686 in the Dow futures 15-minute chart is expected to close the gap created on August 21, 2022. This move would be similar to the Dow 15-minute futures structure developed between December 30, 2021 and January 5, 2022 before a meaningful decline starts.
Dow: Six Day Rally
Over the last six trading days Dow futures have finished with a positive close. Similar six day positive close rallies occurred between December 21, 2021 to December 29, 2021, and May 23, 2022 to May 30, 2022. During all three rallies, it was observed that a significant number of very large blocks were traded. Preliminary estimates indicate that over the next 16 to 17 trading days the Dow will drop back down to 26,400 following the lower trend line shown above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: September Gap Filled
The gap created in the Dow futures chart on September 13, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. has been filled.
Dow: October Peak
Based on historical data, Market Maker trading activity, structural calculations and rate of speed, there is a high probability the Dow will peak on Thursday, October 27, 2022 (+/-1 trading day) before starting a sharp decline in November 2022.
Dow: September 2022
As of October 24, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ Dow and structural calculations indicate Market Makers have been accelerating their actions to position for a sharp decline, just as they did between September 1, 2022 and September 12, 2022. It is expected that the move upward will be deferred.
Dow: September – October 2021
Structural calculations indicate algorithms are in the process of repeating the late September to early October 2021 chart structure as shown in the charts below. Daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirm this development with updates that include a primary target of 32,210 (+/- 1%) and secondary target of 33,043 (+/- 1%). This rally will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to distribute very large blocks of stock as markets move higher.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: October Trendlines
Engrbytrade structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving up to 31,577 (+/-1%) in the futures market before starting a decline. Trend lines on the chart shown above are based on 30-minute futures chart structures and calculation reviews from October-November 2021 and March 2022. Note that large intraday swings should continue.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Distribution Pattern
As the Dow continues to move higher, trading should be monitored for an increase in very large block trades during the remaining trading days of October and first week of November. Depending on the trade size and distribution pattern from Market Maker activities, it could be followed by a significant decline that would be similar in size to the decline of 2022. Accumulation and distribution patterns by Specialists (currently known as Designated Market Makers) are discussed in Richard Ney’s books shown in the Engrbytrade reference section.
Dow: March 18, 2022
The Dow continues to develop a 15-minute futures chart structure similar to that of March 1, 2022 to March 18, 2022. Based on the October 4, 2022 to October 18, 2022 15-minute chart structure the Dow is expected to reach 31,577 (+/-1%) in the futures market before starting a decline.
Dow: Overnight Adjustments
Structural calculations indicate overnight adjustments have been made in futures market computer trading algorithms resulting in a change where the Dow is expected to reach a high of 31,577 (+/- 1%) before declining. Note that volatility will continue to increase during the last quarter of 2022 with frequent adjustments.
Dow: October 2008 vs 2022
The Dow continues to follow its 2008 template, as shown in the daily charts below. Based on daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and structural development, a move up to 31,044 (+/-1%) in the futures market by November 4, 2022 is expected before moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
October 2 – 14, 2008 October 4 – 14, 2022
Dow: October 24, 2022
The Dow continues to develop a 15-minute futures chart structure similar to that of March 1, 2022 to March 16, 2022. Based on the October 4, 2022 to October 14, 2022 15-minute chart structure rate of acceleration, the Dow is expected to reach 31,470 (+/-1%) by October 24, 2022 before starting a decline.
Dow: Incomplete Decline
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the decline is incomplete. On October 13, 2022 the Dow completed a 2.8% move up on volume of less than 500 million. Based on retail investor sentiment this move appears to be similar to what occurred on October 13, 2008.
Dow: 15-Minute Chart Volatility
On October 10, 2022, it was noted that the Dow was following its March 1, 2022 to March 8, 2022 15-minute futures chart. The Dow continues to develop a 15-minute futures chart similar to that of March 1, 2022 to March 14, 2022. Volatility is expected to increase over the next two to three trading days before moving higher while institutions and retail investors take extreme defensive positions.
Dow: October 11, 2021
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations on October 11, 2022 indicate the Dow is in a similar position to where it was on October 11, 2021. Market makers continue to accumulate very large blocks of stock.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 15-Minute Chart
The October 4, 2022 to October 10, 2022 15-minute futures chart appears to be a repeat of the March 1, 2022 to March 8, 2022 15-minute futures chart. A move higher is still expected.
Dow: Stock Distribution
Market Makers need a sharp rally to distribute very large quantities of stock they accumulated during September. When this distribution is complete, a significant decline is expected to start.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/SP500: October – November 2021
Based on a detailed review of Daily engrbytrade™ calculations, candlestick structures, accumulation patterns, etc. preliminary data indicates the Dow and S&P500 structures to be developed in October – November 2022 are expected to be similar and have a relatively larger scale than what was developed during October – November 2021.
Dow: June 15, 2008
On September 30, 2022, it was noted that “Commercial Futures Traders are positioned for the Dow to move back above 36,000 during the first quarter of 2023″. As of today, that expectation has not changed. Based on similarities of the 2007-2008 and 2021-2022 Dow structures illustrated below, a review shows a close of 10,962.54 on July 15, 2008 was followed by a higher close of 11,782.35 on August 11, 2008 before starting a significant decline going through September to November 2008. Market data calculations will need to be monitored closely over the coming weeks to see if Market Makers or bankers change priorities and start a decline earlier than expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
2021 – 2022
2007 – 2008
Dow: 20 Years Later
The two charts shown below illustrate how structures repeat over different time frames and scales. The current decline is nearing completion, just as it did 20 years ago in September 2022. Note that angles for the trend lines in both charts are identical and drop 25.03 degrees from the X axis. This supports the Engrbytrade hypothesis that market movements are based on structures created prior to, and implemented during, the course of predetermined time frames.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Undervalued
Weekly futures trading data calculations have shifted and indicate the Dow is significantly undervalued relative to the U.S. Dollar. Capital continues to move out of Europe pushing the U.S. Dollar higher. This flow of capital has created a distortion in relative values of various products, such as the Dow Jones Index. At this point calculations show the Dow will not have a sharp decline in 2022 as expected. Commercial Futures Traders are positioned for the Dow to move back above 36,000 during the first quarter of 2023.
The chart below provides key points where the Dow has been undervalued relative to the U.S. Dollar.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: June – August 2022
Preliminary data indicates the Dow repeats a June – August 2022 structure filling any remaining gaps. End-of-month data is still needed to confirm this.
Dow: Move Up Continues
Since September 23, 2022 the Dow has developed a Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation in the 15-minute chart. A move to higher levels is expected to continue.
Economy/Dow: Retail Trading
Key words from the media push pessimism in retail trading for Market Makers to acquire additional inventory.
A move up in the Dow is still expected.
Dow: September 2004
To provide an illustration for a move up that is expected to occur between the last week of September 2022 and first week of October 2022, the following charts show a comparison between 2004 and 2022. The December 2003 to September 2004 Dow structure is not an exact replica, but is similar to the December 2021 to September 2022 Dow structure. Following this move up a decline will depend on Market Makers and bankers going into the end of the 2022 fiscal year. As data becomes available, adjustments may be needed.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
