Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow will briefly decline below 30,000 before moving higher. This drop will be similar to the structures that were developed between September 20, 2021 to October 1, 2021, and February 24, 2022 to March 8, 2022. One purpose of this decline will be to fill various gaps in the futures market that were created since June 20, 2022. Upon completion of this decline, the move upward is expected to continue.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow is currently in the process of completing an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure as shown in the chart above. In the past this structure has typically been seen as a recurring event within futures market intraday structures. One example would be the S&P500 one hour chart between March 29, 2022 and April 25, 2022. Based on the structure shown below, a sharp decline in the Dow to 25,377 is expected upon completing the move between point 7 and point 8.
Dow: 1974 Model
Based on the Dow update on June 18, 2022, a 1974 model has been added to the engrbytrade™ Dow Model series.
Dow: Update July 11, 1974
Additional data with revised calculations related to the 1974 Dow structure noted on June 17, 2022 indicate that June 17, 2022 equals July 11, 1974. A move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) is still expected prior to moving lower. This would place a significant decline going into October 2022.
Dow: February 13, 1974
In order to complete a significant coordinated decline during the last half of this year, Market Makers are switching to the 1974 Dow structure today where June 17, 2022 equals February 13, 1974. Updated structural calculations show the Dow is expected to move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) prior to moving lower.
Dow: Market Rally
Current engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are in line with Peter Eliades’ latest projections.
Dow: Technical Indicators
For technical indicator traders, be aware that several indicators such as the CCI, RSI, Stochastic %K, William’s % R, TRIX, and Chaikin are in a very similar position to where they were on February 26, 2020.
Dow: Options Expiration
Preliminary engrbytrade™ timeline calculations indicate the Dow is expected to start moving higher by June 16, 2022, just prior to options expiration. This move up will also be dependent on very large block trade activity prior to June 17, 2022.
Dow: Significant collapse
The Dow’s move down to a low of 31,387.84 on June 10, 2022 places it in a position for an immediate drop below 31,250 to fill a gap that was created in overnight futures trading on May 22, 2022. Based on updated structural calculations and a lack of very large block trading, the Dow is expected to quickly move back up to 32,584 (+/-1%) in the futures market. An absence of big block trades and volatility will continue as the Dow initiates a setup for a significant collapse. This move has the potential of reaching a low of 23,262 (+/- 2%).
Dow: Pullback to 32,000
The Dow is on track with the June 3, 2022 post noting that a pullback to 32,000 is in order before moving higher. A move to 36,262 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Dow: 36,262 (+/- 1%)
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations, very large block trade trends, and structural calculation updates indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 36,262 (+/- 1%) in the futures market before moving lower. A brief pullback to 32,000 is still in order prior to moving higher. Dire warnings from companies such JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have led investors to quickly sell and provide Market Makers/Exchange Insiders with the inventory (stock) needed to move markets higher over the very short term. Look for this narrative to move from dire warnings to a positive outlook as the Dow moves closer to 36,262. Market Makers/Exchange Insiders will then start selling to investors in preparation for another decline.
Dow: October 29, 2021
The Dow has moved quickly to the point where it currently aligns with October 29, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show a peak of 34, 580 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Dow: Brief Decline
Note that a brief declined is expected. This will be similar to the October 8, 2021 through October 13, 2021 decline. Upon completing this move the Dow will continue to move higher as noted May 24, 2022.
Dow: October 1, 2021
Over the last two weeks, very large block trades have been crossing the tape. This is very similar to large block trading between March 7, 2022 and March 10, 2022 prior to the Dow moving higher. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and structural data confirms the Dow 15 minute chart has started to repeat a structure similar to that of October 1, 2021 to November 8, 2021 with an expected peak of 34,580 (+/- 1%).
Dow: January 22, 2008
The March 29, 2022 to May 20, 2022 daily Dow futures chart structure is very similar to the December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008 structure. In the Dow 2 hour futures chart between April 21, 2022 and May 20, 2022 a decline developed that was similar to the engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model(TM) shown below. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show a move upward is expected with a retracement from 31,261 to 33,010 (+/-2%). To put 2022 into perspective, the decline from April 21, 2022 to May 20, 2022 is 2.22 times larger than the decline from December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Dow: Market Makers Repositioning
Daily calculations indicate Market Makers are in the process of repositioning and reallocating their inventory (stock) in preparation for a move higher, just as they did between September 30, 2021 and October 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to move up prior to the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14-15, 2022.
Dow: Retracement to 33,675
On May 12, 2022 the Dow hit a low of 31,228.22, within the 31,000 +/-2% range of 30,380 to 31620 as noted on May 4, 2022. A retracement move back up to 33,675 (+/-2%) is expected before moving lower.
Dow: Move to 31,000
It appears Market Makers have decided to complete the move to 31,000 (+/- 2%) as noted on May 4, 2022.
Dow: Institutional Selling
After four trading days of serious big block selling by large institutions, a move up to 34,731 (+/-1%) is expected before the next decline starts. This is similar to what occurred between March 8, 2022 and March 29, 2022.
Dow: Similar Results
Today, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations provided similar results to that of September 21, 2021, October 11, 2021, January 20, 2022 and March 8, 2022. A move higher levels is expected.
Dow: Retail Traders
Early morning market reports will influence retail traders to move out of the markets as Market Makers accumulate additional inventory (stock). Accumulation patterns since April 25, 2022 have not changed. Research indicates today’s move is expected to be similar to March 17, 2008 before the Dow started moving higher.
Dow: Change to 36,263
Final May 4, 2022 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed a change in direction with an expected move up to 36,263 (+/- 1%) before continuing down to 31,000. This move should be similar to what occurred between March 11, 2008 and May 2, 2008.
Dow: Futures peak
Looking to repeat a 15-min. chart structure futures traders used between Jan 4th-5th 2022. Current peak on May 4th 2022 drop overnight – peak again May 5th 2022 followed by a decline.
Dow: Expected Decline
On April 27, 2022 it was noted that the Dow would decline to 31,000 (+/- 2%) [30,380 to 31620]. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are still in line with this expected decline.
Dow: 31,000
Structural calculations indicate a decline in the Dow is expected to continue during April and May 2022 with a move down to 31,000 (+/-2%).