Category: Dow

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Dow: 2007 Rate Cut

There has been some discussion on rate cuts of September 18, 2007 and September 18, 2024. The 10-Yr Note rate is expected to decline between October and December 2024, as noted on September 28, 2024. Timing of the Dow would align with a 10-Year Note rate decline between October and December 2024. Charts provide below give some perspective on the Dow’s  structure as it moves into October. Additional data will be needed to confirm a decline in the Dow.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – September 25, 2024

On September 21, 2024 it was noted that the  NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. It also noted that if the NAAIM index moved above the red trend line, markets would trend higher. As of September 25, 2024 the index dropped to 86.64. This indicates active money managers are reducing their equity exposure. It also indicates a higher probability of stock markets declining, as they did in October 2023 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Dow/S&P500: New 52-Week Highs

Something that should not be overlooked is the NYSE New 52-Week Highs chart. It appears that Market Makers are in the process of selling as Retail Investors continue to buy. Over the last two years this has been a consistent contrarian indicator.

“….it is not demand that causes rising stock prices but rising stock prices that cause demand.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 88

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Update

On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the  NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The index hit a key point on September 18, 2024, as shown below. If the NAAIM index moves above the red trend line, then stock markets would be expected to trend higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Dow: Long Tail Candle

After the Fed interest rate announcement on September 18, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Dow moved to a high of 41,981.97. A review of block trades during this time revealed a majority of trades were conducted by retail traders and computer algorithms. The end result was a long tail candle for the day, which typically signals a reversal.

It should also be noted that the Dow continues to follow its 16.83 degree upper trend line, as shown below. A decline going into October 2024 is still expected.

 

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Pattern Continues

On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern. If the NAAIM Index pattern continues as it did in 2022 and 2023, another rally would be expected going into the end of 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Significant Decline Update

On July 20, 2024 Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations identified a series of key Commercial Trader British Pound positions in 2023 and 2024. This indicated the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ would repeat their performance of 2008. Currently the British Pound is repeating a peak that was formed in late October and early November 2007. Based on this data, stock markets are expected to have a significant decline in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Fibonacci Expectations

On September 13, 2024 it was noted that the S&P500 candlestick on September 11, 2024 was similar to the January 24, 2022 candlestick. A review of the following 1-hour charts provided additional Fibonacci expectations that 2024 would be very similar to 2022. The Dow is currently expected to move up to the 1.68 level before moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: The Markets Are Rigged

Yes, The Markets Are Rigged

In 2008 the NYSE transitioned from Specialists to Designated Market Makers and Supplemental Liquidity Providers. It is still a merchandising operation.

Approved NYSE Supplemental Liquidity Providing (SLP-PROP) Firms
HRT Financial LLC
IMC Chicago LLC
Latour Trading, LLC
Tradebot Systems, Inc.
Virtu Americas LLC

Approved NYSE Designated Market Makers
Citadel Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Company
Virtu Americas LLC

 

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Dow/S&P500: Hindenburg Omen Index

Research into the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index revealed comparable points to the weekly 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Futures Trader Net chart. In 2018 the weekly omen index hit 3.0 on September 4th, 10th, and 17th. On September 25, 2018 Non-Commercial Futures trader positions hit a low in the 10-Yr Note, as shown on the chart below. On October 4, 2018 the Dow and S&P500 started a decline that continued to the end of December 2018.

In comparison to 2018, the index recently hit 3.00 on September 3rd and 9th. At this point 10-Yr Note Futures traders are aligned closely with the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index. If the index hits 3.0 again, there is a high probability of a decline going into the end of 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Index chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Gap Open for 32 Days

On September 5, 2024 it was noted that futures gaps were still left to fill for the Dow and S&P500. Each index still has a one gap that has been open for 32 days, which is quite unusual.  Investing.com can provide charts for Dow and S&P500 futures, if you are interested. Use a 5-minute chart with candlesticks to view the gaps.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: August to October 2023 Patterns

The latest NAAIM update indicates the Dow 8 point chart shown below is complete.  At this point the Dow and S&P500 are expected to follow their August to October 2023 patterns. This move would also line up with computer algorithms working to fill remaining futures gaps created in August 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Unfinished Business

It appears that computer algorithms are working on some unfinished business related to filling futures gaps. On August 27, 2024 it was noted that there were still two open futures gaps to fill. The S&P500 is very close to filling its first futures gap created on August 15, 2024. It has been open for 21 days.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Inverted Fibonacci Technique

A review of the Dow 1-hr chart was performed between August 21, 2024 and September 3, 2024. Results indicate Market Makers were using an inverted Fibonacci technique shown in the first chart. This provides a method of inventory accumulation for the Market Maker when needed. It also provides algorithms with data needed to move the Dow up to its 16.83 degree upper trend line.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index

A review of the August 30, 2024 NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The Dow continues to move higher and is expected to briefly touch its 16.83 degree upper trend line. This will complete the 2021 chart structure guide discussed on August 22, 2024.

Market Maker big block distributions after August 5, 2024 have been relatively light and are focused on a few big tech stocks and ETFs such as the SPY. This indicates Market Makers are planning to accumulate additional inventory during the next decline.

Overall, there are very few sector bullish percentage indices that are overvalued. Examples include the S&P Health Care Sector and S&P Real Estate Sector.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Test the 1929 Model

It appears that September 2024 will provide an opportunity to test the 1929 model. On September 3, 1929 the Dow hit its peak. The rest was history. Today the Dow is in a very similar position as it nears the 461.80% level shown below. Any number of events could precipitate a decline. Central bankers and Market Makers will be the determining factor.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: 1987 Trend Line Update

On August 24, 2024 it was noted that contact with the IBM 1987 upper trend line was expected in late August or early September. On August 28, 2024 IBM hit its 1987 37.18 degree trend line shown below. IBM is expected to continue following its 1987 chart structure.  When IBM hit its peak on August 21, 1987 it started a decline that ended on October 19, 1987. If a large number of stocks collapse in October, markets will close just as they did in 1987 and brokers will not respond.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: August Futures Gaps to Fill

Market Makers continue to proceed to the 16.83 degree upper trend line discussed on August 26, 2024, At this point there are still two open futures gaps.  On August 8, 2024 and August 15, 2024 gaps were created in the Dow and S&P500 futures 5- minute charts. The majority of gaps created in these futures have a high probability of filling within a 5 day window. A sampling of 22 gaps in the Dow futures 5-minute chart between January 17, 2024 and August 4, 2024 were identified. Out of this sample 15 filled in less than 5 days. Five filled between 5 and 15 days, and 2 filled after 15 days. The Dow gaps noted above have been open 19 days and 12 days, respectively. Based on historical data, this indicates both gaps should fill before the September options expiration date.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 16.83 Degree Upper Trend Line

On August 22, 2024 a brief sharp decline was expected before moving higher. Market Makers used the brief drop on August 22nd to accumulate additional inventory. This was observed in products such as the SPY. It appears Market Makers have decided to continue moving toward the 16.83 degree upper trend line.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: IBM 1987 Trend Line

On April 27, 2024 it was noted that structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM chart were similar to that of 1986 – 1987. On August 1, 2024 a review indicated IBM was still on track to reach its 37.18 degree upper trend line. The following charts show contact in late August or early September would be expected for the IBM 1987 trend line.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Very brief pullback

On August 5, 2024 the Dow and S&P500 hit their lows of 38499.27 and 5119.26, respectively. Market Makers used this decline as an opportunity to accumulate additional stock (inventory). Based on the accelerated move from August 5, 2024 to August 16, 2024 a pullback is expected over the next several trading days, before moving higher. Trading patterns during the week of August 19, 2024 are also expected to be similar to the following.

  • October 5, 2022 to October 13, 2022
  • October 17, 2023 to October 27, 2023

In addition to this, sentiment calculations show a very brief pullback is expected before moving higher.

Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/Interest Rates: Mid-August 2007

On May 4, 2024 it was noted that Futures Traders were still waiting for a decline in rates and that it would be generated by the bond market, not the Fed. Since then, the 10Yr Note rate has dropped from 4.52 to 3.88 without a Fed rate cut. Futures trading data continues to confirm the 10Y Note rate is expected to decline. The mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note rate structure positioning is in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500.

Stock charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Repeat of 2020

A brief pullback in the market is expected to be similar to what occurred between October 5, 202 to October 12, 2022 or October 18, 2023 to October 27, 2023. This could also turn into something much larger. On August 14, 2024 the WHO declared mpox as a public health emergency of international concern. If this situation continues to grow it could turn into a repeat of 2020.

Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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