Category: Dow

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple 2025 vs 2008

Up until July 2025 Market Makers have been following Apple’s January 2006 to March 2008 chart structure. In addition to this an Engrbytrade™ eight point trading model structure has formed. It is similar to what occurred between May and August of 2008 and was discussed on May 8, 2025.

Technical indicators and big block activity still point to a decline. This includes readings from the NAAIM Index, CNN Fear and Greed Index and CNN Put to Call Options indicator.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: TLT and Intel accumulation

On February 24, 2024, research found the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF (TLT) appeared to be under accumulation. Extremely large block trades have crossed the tape since October 2023. This level of trading indicates Market Makers are involved.
In addition to this it appears Intel has been under accumulation since August 2024. Market Makers took the opportunity to drop Intel 26% on August 2, 2024 due to a big miss on earnings. Following this decline, extremely large block trades started crossing the tape. This accumulation process is still underway.
In both cases similar accumulation events occurred in 2010 and 2011 before prices started moving higher.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89 

“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which [Market Makers formerly known as] specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – June 25 2025

On June 25, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 81.41. This pattern appears to be a repeat performance of June 10, 2020. Movements of the index from May 7, 2025 to June 25, 2025 are similar to what occurred between April 29, 2020 and June 10, 2020. This indicates investment managers are using similar risk management techniques that were applied in 2020. If this is a repeat of 2020, there may be some near term volatility. Based on investment manager positions markets are expected to move higher going into the end of August 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – June 18 2025

The NAAIM Exposure Index reading has moved up to 94.09. This is similar to what occurred on April 17, 2019. On that date the index hit a reading of 93.37 after recovering from a sharp market decline in December 2018. This reading was followed by a 6.12% decline in the S&P500 during May 2019.

In addition to the current NAAIM reading it was noted on June 19, 2025 that the CNN Fear & Greed reading was in a position similar to where it was on December 15, 2022. The Fear & Greed reading in December 2022 was followed by a 5.87% decline in the S&P500.

Based on both readings, a brief decline of approximately 6% in the S&P500 would be expected before moving higher. Volatility should continue to increase over the next 2 to 3 months before breaking out and moving higher.

Note that NAAIM Index readings on April 17, 2019 and June 18, 2025 were recorded during options expiration week.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – June 4 2025

On May 15, 2025 it was noted that markets were still expected to move higher. As markets moved higher investment managers would adjust their exposure, as needed. On June 4, 2025, investment managers adjusted their exposure in a way that is similar to what occurred on June 10, 2020. This aligns with the S&P500 index, which has a 78.6% retracement formation that is similar to June 2020. The possibility of an increase in volatility is expected over the short term before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Big Block Trading

The following should provide some perspective on big block trading during the decline in 2025. A 27 day period was selected during the decline in March – April 2025 and September – October 2023. Apple block trades with over 5 million shares were used as a sample base. Results showed the total number of Apple shares traded in March – April 2025 was 49% larger than September – October 2023. Since Market Makers operate a merchandising system, they will have an incentive to distribute this, and other shares accumulated, at much higher prices in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 14 2025

On May 1, 2025 it was noted that a move higher was expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. The upcoming 2025 pattern should be similar to 2019.  NAAIM Exposure Index charts shown below indicate investment managers have recently reacted in a manner similar to 2019. This move by itself is not an indication that markets will move higher or lower. But, when asset exposure moves  to extremes it is an indication that markets are oversold or overbought.

Markets are still expected to move higher. Confirmation is needed from Indicators, such as the weekly NYSE Hindenburg Omen index. As markets move higher, investment managers will adjust their exposure.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Silent Collapse List

On January 15, 2025 a list of 6 companies were identified for the Engrbytrade™ Silent Collapse List. Since that time the list has grown to 12 companies. These are companies that have not materially participated in the stock market rally over the last few years. Or, like Apple, they are in the process of breaking down. A review of 2007 was conducted for a comparison to 2025. Between 2002 and 2007 there were 10 companies that did not participate or were breaking down. Some companies have since been removed from the Dow, such as Alcoa and Citigroup. The Dow is still expected to move higher, as noted on May 9, 2025 based on sentiment and other technical indicators. But, this lack of participation with stocks breaking down is a risk that needs to be monitored closely.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – May 7 2025

To provide some context for the current NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.06, a comparison was done between the NAAIM 2019 and 2025 charts.  After the S&P500 declined in December 2018, the NAAIM Index moved up to 83.39 on February 6, 2019. After the recent S&P500 decline in April 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 81.06 on March 7, 2025. There were numerous reasons for market declines in 2018 and 2025. But, the reaction from investment managers was the same. Based on similar S&P500 chart structures and investment manager reactions, it appears markets should move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple’s 2025 Decline

Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 30 2025

The NAAIM Index hit a reading of 59.92 on April 30, 2025. This is very close to the reading of 59.43 on January 2, 2019.  Note that patterns in the Dow during 2024-2025 and 2018-2019 are similar.  These structures were developed over a period of time when tariffs were being applied. A move higher is expected for the Dow and S&P500 in 2025. They should follow the 2019 pattern. The charts below illustrate this comparison.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: S&P500 Monthly Chart

The Engrbytrade™ 1929 Dow Model has been updated based on positioning of the S&P500 monthly chart. The S&P500 monthly chart for April 2025 has a bullish long tail candlestick pattern. This is similar to what was recorded in March 1929. This aligns with other bullish indicators discussed in April 2025. Extremely large block trades have also continued to cross the tape. A move up into September and October is expected.

 

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Dow: Optimism Will Prevail

Market Makers, formerly known as Specialists, and bankers leave nothing to chance. Structures repeat based on the needs of Exchange Insiders. Tariffs in 2025 were the perfect motive to repeat previous structures from 2018 and 1928-1929. In both cases a rally followed ultimately leading to a significant market collapse. It looks like 2025–2026 will be no exception. Optimism will prevail as markets move higher.

“One can trade on the knowledge that the Exchange operates according to the principle “the best way to control history is to shape it yourself.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 258

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Waiting for October

During February, March and April 2025 Market Makers (and Bankers) pulled the markets back by using tariffs as an excuse. It appears Exchange Insiders are waiting for October, after the end of the fiscal year, before starting a significant decline. That is when the Washington D.C. corporation is expected to pay its creditors. Unfortunately, this corporation has trillions in debt and unfunded liabilities. They do not have the assets to pay their creditors and will do what ever is needed to to avoid it, including a market collapse. Time will tell. In the interim, a steady move up into August and September is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dollar: 2017 vs 2025 Dow

On April 12, 2025 it was noted that as the U.S. Dollar declines gold and silver prices will move higher, just as they did between 2006 and 2008. In addition to this Engrbytrade™ trade markers identified in the following 2015 Dollar chart structure are similar to what was identified in the 2023 chart structure. This indicates the Dollar is expected to continue moving lower through 2025 and into 2026. A decline in the Dollar will affect the stock market. When the Dollar declined in 2017, 25 out of 30 Dow stocks moved higher that year. The Dollar’s expected move to lower levels also aligns with several independent stock market indicators.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: NAAIM Index – April 16, 2025

On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Exposure Index data courtesy of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Johnson & Johnson

Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Dow Stocks

Very large seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for a select group of Dow stocks since April 1, 2025. Apple, Cisco, and Microsoft are a few examples. This type of action would typically be made by Market Makers in order to accumulate inventory in preparation for a move higher. While this is happening there are indications from S&P Sector readings that the current market decline is nearing an end. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

“To know your adversary, you must know his customs; to understand the influence that specialists [Market Makers] exercise over the market you must be able to identify the practices they employ to rig stock prices.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 85

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 2020 Fibonacci

On March 16, 2025 a preliminary conclusion was made that a decline was expected in the coming weeks. Last week financial news media outlets, in coordination with stock exchanges, have provided a dire picture of global tariff policies that will force a review of corporate stock values. Hedge funds are liquidating assets and have been hit with Lehman-style margin calls. The most recent chart structure similar to what was developed in 2024 and 2025 is the 2019 to 2020 Dow chart. Based on the 2020 Fibonacci structure shown below the Dow should move down to 28,000.

On March 29, 2025 it was noted that between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape. All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appeared this was part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. On March 31, 2025, pension funds conducted the largest buy session on record. Market makers would have supplied a majority of the stock they accumulated in March.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Accumulation Process

On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple Market Maker

After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.

Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.

Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.

Step 3. Fear: March 4, 2025 through March 8, 2025
March 4, 2024, CNBC discussed the potential impact tariffs will have on Apple.

Step 4. Sell: March 10, 2025

Market Makers accelerate the decline with a 4.8% drop during the day.

Step 5. Extreme Fear: March 11, 2025

The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 13.

Step 6. Buy: March 18, 2025

Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of  $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.

Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: 1973 vs 2025 Dow Index

On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.

1. Alignment of the 2018 and 2025 US 10-Yr Note vs 2025 Dow index.

2. Indications of capital moving to Swiss Francs.

3. The expectation of crude oil moving lower.

4. Market Maker accumulation of TLT.

5. The growing number of Dow stocks collapsing since 2020.

6. Engrbytrade markers pointing to a decline going into the end of 2026

7. As of November 9, 2024 the Buffett Indicator (Market Valuation to GDP) was 209%.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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