Intermarket structural analysis research
Over the past several years futures traders have produced consistent trading patterns. Underlying futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro will continue to follow the current descending triangle pattern. Unless something changes, a falling wedge pattern is expected to follow.
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On February 28, 2024 it was noted that a descending triangle was forming in the Euro and it is similar to what occurred in 2020 – 2021. Based on current futures trader position calculations the Euro, at this point, is a Bitcoin leading indicator. The Euro is in a position similar to where it was on August 5, 2021. Bitcoin did not start to move lower in 2021 until the Euro dropped out of the descending triangle in mid-November 2021. Bitcoin and the Euro appear to be repeating the same process developed in late 2021.
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On January 20, 2024 it was noted that the Euro is expected to continue a long term decline going into 2024 and 2025. Engrbytrade™ futures trader positions still indicate this is the case. In addition to this a descending triangle is forming, and is similar to what occurred in 2020 – 2021.
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A review of Engrbytrade™ futures trader positions indicates the Euro is expected to continue a long term decline going into 2024 and 2025. Engrbytrade™ Euro futures trading data calculation results from July 21, 2023 are similar to the results received on April 13, 2018 and January 29, 2021, as shown in the first chart below. U.S. Dollar calculations also indicate that futures traders are still not positioned for a move in the U.S. Dollar to higher levels, as shown in the second chart.
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Engrbytrade™ weekly futures trading data calculation updates indicate the Euro is conducting a rally similar to what occurred in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and December 2009 to January 2010. Based on this update, there is an expectation the Euro will start to turn lower between December 2023 and January 2024. Additional data will be needed to identify a turning point.
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On September 24, 2023 it was noted that the average relative value of silver derivatives moved into a position of being “Extremely Undervalued”. This is also true for the Euro. The following chart is a representative average relative value of the Euro vs. U.S. Dollar. The current position of this relative value provides an expectation that the Euro will change direction and move higher over the next several months. This aligns with the Dollar’s abrupt change in direction noted on September 26, 2023.
On June 10, 2023, it was noted that the Euro was expected to move above 1.14 before starting a decline. Weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations from July 18, 2023 indicate the Euro moved within 1% of its peak and is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on December 9, 2020. A long term decline is expected to commence for the Euro as traders start moving into U.S. Dollars. During the Euro’s decline traders will also shift into U.S. Dollars as they move out of currencies that include the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.
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Bitcoin is in the process of developing a chart structure that is similar to the 1972 – 1985 Euro structure. Key turning points have been identified on the charts. As of June 16, 2023 Bitcoin is in a position similar to where the Euro was in April 1983.
On May 22, 2023 it was noted that the Euro would continue moving higher. Futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is expected to complete a structure similar to what was constructed during January 2017 to December 2017 and January 2020 to December 2020 by the end of 2023. It is currently in a position similar to where it was on October 11, 2017 and October 2, 2020. A move above 1.14 is expected prior to starting a long decline.
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Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.
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Intermarket futures trading data shows the Euro moving higher in 2023 while the U.S. Dollar declines. As the Dollar declines, Bitcoin is expected to move higher during the next 12 months. This move should be similar to what occurred during 2017 and April 2020 to April 2021.
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As of January 3, 2023 futures trading data calculations shifted and are now indicating a high probability that the Euro will continue moving higher in 2023. Expectations for this move are based on comparable calculation results from May, 19, 2020, June 13, 2017, and September 25, 2012. Other markets will be affected and additional research is needed to evaluate the impact of this change in direction.
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Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is still in the process of completing a significantly larger structure that started in 2008 and is similar to what was developed between 1995 and 2001. The completion of the current structure would result in a target range of 0.81.
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Based on current intermarket futures trading data calculations the Euro is expected to move down to 0.89 by the end of 2022 as the U.S. Dollar continues to move higher.
On May 1, 2022 it was noted that engrbytrade™ structural calculations and intermarket futures trading data indicated the Euro would reach 0.96 by November 2022. On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 the Euro hit a low of 0.9864 in the futures market. Intermarket futures trading data calculations currently indicate the Euro will continue to move lower. The Euro is in a similar position to where it was in mid-September 2008 and is expected to continue its decline going into November 2022 hitting a low between 0.82 and 0.83. Preliminary calculations indicate the Euro could eventually move down to its February 1985 low below 0.60, but additional data from the upcoming decline will be needed to confirm this.
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As noted on July 13, 2021, the Euro peak structure developed between July 27, 2020 and July 12, 2021 is similar to the Euro structure developed between March 6, 2008 and August 5, 2008. The Euro will continue to decline based on engrbytrade™ structural calculations and intermarket futures trading data indicating the Euro is expected to reach 0.96 by November 2022.
The Euro chart structure developed between July 27, 2020 and July 12, 2021 is similar to the Euro structure developed between March 6, 2008 and August 5, 2008. Intermarket Futures trading data calculations relative to the U.S. Dollar indicates a decline in the Euro is expected during the remainder of 2021 that would be similar to the decline conducted from August 5, 2008 and November 30, 2008.