Intermarket structural analysis research
Weekly Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate a situation exists where futures traders are creating a 30-Yr yield descending triangle that is similar to the 2018 10-yr yield descending triangle shown below. A brief move upward in the 10-Yr and 30-Yr yield is expected. This will be followed by a decline during the remainder of 2023 as stock markets move lower.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 6, 2022 it was noted that weekly futures trading data calculations indicated the 10-Year note yield was peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018. The 10-Year note has slowly declined from 4.218 on November 7, 2022 to 3.373 on March 24, 2023. As of March 24, 2023 the 10Y-Yr note is in a similar position to where it was on November 16, 2018. Current weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Yr note yield is expected to conduct a decline similar to what occurred between November 2018 and September 2019. The 2022 to 2023 chart shown below provides a trend line of 18.25 degrees below the x-axis and overlays Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 2017. This indicates a steady decline below 1.5% is expected by the end of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intensifying War, Enormous Upside for Gold – Charles Nenner
Weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield is peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A review of the current non-logarithmic US 10-Yr Note interest rate structure shown below indicates it is similar to the 1987 non-logarithmic 10-Yr Note structure developed between January 1987 and October 1987.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on engrbytrade™ 10Yr Note interest rate futures market structural calculations, a significant stock market decline is expected in the coming days. This decline could be as swift as the 1987 crash.
Starting on March 1, 2022 the one hour 10-Yr Note interest rate structure started to repeat its one hour structure that started on October 6, 2019 and hit a peak of 1.968 on November 7, 2019. It is expected that the current structure will continue to follow the general trend of the 2019 structure and reach a peak of 2.547 before trending lower.
Futures market structural calculations indicate a decline of the 10-Yr Note interest rate is expected in March 2022. This move will be similar to what occurred in October 2018 and reach 1.78. Then a final move upward will take this interest rate to 2.06 before making a significant decline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
10-Yr Note and 30-Yr Note intermarket futures trading data calculations show a significant decline in the stock market is expected to start as soon as the 10-Yr note drops below its lower trend line in the chart shown above. This move in the bond market will start just as it did on November 16, 2018 and January 15, 2020.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to indicate interest rates are expected to move lower in 2022, regardless of Federal Reserve member forecasts. Projections indicate the 10-Yr note rate dropping below its 2020 low of 0.75%.
Additional futures trading data revised 10Yr note interest rate structural calculations. This update indicates the 10Yr note interest rate is currently positioned to repeat a decline that is similar to what occurred between November 9, 2018 and September 3, 2019. A move to zero is expected by the third quarter of 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Futures trading data calculation results have moved outside of a statistical range that has not been seen since March 22, 2005. By December 31, 2021 the 10yr note rate is expected to hit 0.4% as the 30 year bond interest rate drops below 1.0%.
On October 9, 2021 Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders made an announcement to get ready for “significantly earlier” interest rate rises due to inflation pressure. The timing of this announcement is similar to that of September 26, 1929 when the Bank of England raised its discount rate from 5.5 to 6.5% just prior to the 1929 stock market crash.