Intermarket structural analysis research
It appears the 2024 NVDA chart structure from June to August 2024 is similar to that of June to August of 2001. The 14.92 degree trend line indicates a decline is expected going into September and October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 20, 2024 an exponential shift occurred when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This short position move was much larger than what occurred in 2007. After the July 2007 record of net short positions, stock markets started moving lower in October 2007.
On July 30, 2024 Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net long positions on July 23, 2024. This was well above the July 2007 record that occurred prior to the Dow and S&P500 peak in October2007.
In the chart below Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders repeated a 105 day performance of what occurred between May 29, 2018 and September 11, 2018. After Swiss Franc traders changed direction in September 2018, stock markets started a decline in October 2018. This lasted until late December 2018.
It appears various currency futures traders are positioning for a stock market peak in late September or early October 2024. This would be followed by a substantial decline going into 2025.
On July 20, 2024 it was noted that an exponential shift occurred when Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. That record level was broken last week by Commercial and Non-Commercial Futures Traders (Net Long-Short shown below).
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
An exponential shift occurred this week when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This is much larger than what occurred in 2007. It indicates Futures Traders are expecting a repeat performance of 2008 with a significant decline in 2025. As noted on July 19, 2024, a turn upward from the 8.92 degree trend line would lead to a peak in September – October 2024.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 17, 2024 Market Makers pushed prices higher using their standard practice of distributing stock at the close. It appears they are moving lower using a broadening formation in order to fill one gap created in the extended hours on July 8, 2024 at 4:10 AM. This will provide an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving higher. This is only one example of a coordinated effort using a multitude of trades each day.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 12, 2020 it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. In Extended Hours trading this morning a sharp rise in Intel occurred as Market Makers pushed prices higher. Their accumulation of inventory between April 30th and July 10th was coordinated with the current rise in markets.
This is only educational material. Not financial advice.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Veteran Wall Street Trader Reveals Strategies Used At Stock Exchanges
Richie Naso points out that algorithms and Market Makers control the market.
This is only for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
Between October 2022 and June 2023 very large Intel block trades crossed the tape approximately every other month. This was followed by a steady move up into the end of 2023 before falling in 2024. Over the last two and one-half months it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. Typically this would be an accumulation process by Market Makers. But, with the Warren Buffet stock market indicator hitting an all-time high, as it did at the beginning of 2000, it is not clear what Market Maker’s intend to do.
Note that this information is for research purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since June 2022 the NAAIM exposure index has been moving upward on an 18.32 degree trend line. Based on this trend it appears, at the moment, there is room for markets to move higher.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
This block trade review found two AAPL trades of more than $1.6 billion occurred on December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021 before markets started their decline in 2022. Two more AAPL trades of more than $1.7 billion occurred on June 11, 2024 and June 20, 2024. It is an indication that Market Makers are expecting another decline in 2024.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On June 10, 2024 NVIDIA traded with a price of $195.95. This trade was treated as an anomaly and has been hidden from view by most data suppliers. What should be noted is that it was a short sale trade marker for exchange insiders. It is the inverse of what has occurred many times in the past for companies such as ADP on May 6, 2010 when a low of 17.528 crossed the tape. Since that time ADP moved to a closing price of 235.56 on July 5, 2024.
Note that charts are for research purposes only and not a recommendation.
While the AI bubble sends a small group of tech stocks into a parabolic rise, Fred Hickey notes their valuations are similar to the Dutch tulip and South Sea mania.
Is A Meltdown In Tech Stocks Nearing As Doubts Of A.I.’s Impact Mount? | Fred Hickey
The following is one example of discussions that took place between December 11, 2023 and December 19, 2023 for the purpose of increasing market optimism near the top as Market Makers distributed (sold) millions of shares of stock from their company trading accounts.
Options interest is hitting a record high and Wall Street is racing to meet demand
The Stock Market Is Rigged – Richard Ney
Between 2006 and 2008 the NYSE used the financial crisis as cover to quietly transition from a Specialist Unit system to a Designated Market Maker Unit system. Regardless of the new rules, Market Makers continue to use their merchandising operation to sell at the highs and buy at the lows.
“DMMs were conceived as a new type of market maker for a primarily electronic trading environment that had the ability, and the affirmative obligation, to contribute liquidity in a security by trading competitively for the DMM unit’s dealer account. DMMs were designed to function in a manner substantially different from the manner in which specialists had previously functioned on the Exchange.”
Federal Register Document Citation 88 FR 77625, pages: 77625-77642
The 5 minute chart gaps shown below also appear in the futures market 5 minute chart. Large gaps in stocks or stock indices on the stock exchanges may or may not be filled. It has been observed that large gaps in futures market index charts are filled within a relatively short period of time.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Market Makers took the opportunity today to setup a process of filling any remaining gaps going back to August 2, 2023 and distribute significant quantities of inventory as the financial news media encourages retail investors to move into the markets. This opportunity was coordinated with the financial news media based on lower than expected Consumer Price Index numbers. A very large gap was created in the NASDAQ futures chart today when the CPI announcement occurred. Large gaps in the futures market are all filled within a relatively short period of time.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It has been observed that structural changes in the NASDAQ 100 between November 10, 2021 and December 27, 2021 have similar characteristics to what occurred over a longer time frame in the NASDAQ 100 between July 10, 2023 and November 10, 2023. Underlying data indicates significant short selling occurred in the first half of November 2023, just as it did during the last half of December 2021. Technical indicators such as the CCI, Chalkin oscillator, and 15 day Stochastic are also in alignment between December 2021 and November 2023.
On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 and markets would move higher until November 8, 2023. As of November 10, 2023 the VIX continues to move lower with a close of 14.17. Stock markets are expected to move sideways during the week of November 13, 2023 while Congress struggles with the passage of a Government funding bill before November 17, 2023. Additional data will be needed to confirm markets move lower, just as they in in January 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The S&P500, Dow and NASDAQ are all using an eight point decline structure in their daily charts. This structure is typically found within a shorter duration, such as 1-hour futures charts, and was categorized as an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM. Based on Engrbytrade™ VIX futures trading data calculations noted on November 4, 2023 and eight point trading model structure development, this decline is expected to continue with the potential for completion in the first quarter of 2024.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 with a stock market rally expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets started moving lower. The following NASDAQ 100 charts provide a comparison to the position of the VIX. Based on Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations the NASDAQ is expected to move lower for the remainder of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
While Wall Street traders vacation in the Hampton’s and Federal Reserve members confirm their reservations for the August 24 – 26 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, markets continue to move higher. The following chart illustrates the formation of a pennant in the NASDAQ 100 index.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A change of direction is near. The chart below illustrates that when the indicator moves above or below the red line, a change of direction occurs.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
At 2:58 p.m. today, the NASDAQ 100 hit 14,724.44 on a retracement level of 67.73%, as discussed on June 2, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on Market Thrust for a change in market direction.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
When you see all media outlets proclaiming a bull market has started, it is an indication that Market Makers have sold their entire inventory and sold short. Expect a decline to begin, just as it did during the last half of May in 2008.
Headlines from June 9, 2023
Reuters
Behold Wall Street’s new bull market, maybe
Wall Street Journal
Enters New Bull Market as Big Tech Lifts Indexes
AP News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
CNN
It’s official. We’re in a bull market
ABC News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
As of June 7, 2023 the NASDAQ 100 structure is tracking with the NASDAQ 100 May 19, 2008 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement structure shown below. Using this model provides the expectation of another move above the 61.8% level before making a move to lower levels. Looking back to news events on May 19, 2008, there are some similarities in the standard reasons they use to describe market moves.
Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5 19 2008
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
