Category: Nasdaq

As of November 21, 2024 the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread Index was 2.61. This is very close to where it was on January 24, 2007 when the index hit 2.630. Using this index reading for some insight to a path forward, a comparison was made between 2007 and 2024. This comparison provides similarities shown in the following S&P500 charts. The 2022 to 2024 chart structure is a smaller replica of what was developed between 2001 and 2007. Based on the ICE BofA Index readings and 2007 S&P500 chart, a brief upcoming decline should be expected before a market rally begins. After the short sharp decline on February 27, 2007, tech stocks started to rally until the end of 2007. It appears there is still room for markets to move higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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As of November 20, 2024 point 3 on the NAAIM index shown below was 98 days from the low on August 14, 2024. This is similar to what occurred between points 4 and 1 hitting September 28, 2022 and January 11, 2023. This duration provided a total of 105 days. There is still room to move upward going into December 2024.

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It appears Market Makers are in the process of accumulating big tech using various chart patterns. On November 16, 2024 it was noted that two extremely large Apple block trades crossed the tape in October and November 2024. Microsoft had two extremely large blocks cross the tape on August 30, 2024 and November 18, 2024 using a symmetrical triangle. NVIDIA also had two extremely large blocks crossing the tape on September 27, 2024 and November 18, 2024 using an ascending triangle. These trading patterns are consistent with an expected rise in the markets.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On November 11, 2024 it was noted that “behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns.” Two extremely large Apple block trades crossed the tape recently on October 30, 2024 and November 15, 2024. This occurred near the end of an ascending triangle. It is also similar to what occurred on April 11, 2024 and April 19, 2024 within a falling wedge.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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As of November 13, 2024 points 1, 2, and 3 indicate markets are expected to move higher. The NAAIM Index  aligns with expectations of a year-end rally, as noted on November 13, 2024.

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Behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns. One series of large Apple block trades appeared between March and May of 2024 at the bottom of a falling wedge. Another series of trades appeared recently in an ascending triangle between late September and November 2024. Based on their trading patterns in large cap stocks, such as Apple, markets are on track for a move upward going into the end of 2024.
Note that scanning for block trades should be available on most trading platforms.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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As of November 6, 2024 NAAIM Index point 3 on the following chart aligns with October 19, 2022 and October 18, 2023. This supports the expectation of a year-end rally, as noted on November 6, 2024.

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On October 27, 2024 it was noted that a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. This year-end rally would complete the 4^th quarter peak discussed on October 20, 2024 before moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4^th quarter peak was expected before stock markets moved lower. To support this, Exchange Insiders setup Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA in the Dow.

History shows Intel’s inclusion in the Dow on November 1, 1999 provided Market Makers with an ability to move other stocks lower in 2000, while Intel moved higher. Declining stocks included Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Nike, and Proctor & Gamble. Market Makers were able to convince investors to stay in the market during 2000 as the Dow moved sideways. Overall, this process is a merchandising operation. Market Makers will need to move other stock prices lower in 2025 in order to buy additional inventory for the future.

The 40.9 degree angle shown below on NVIDIA’s chart is the same as Intel’s angle during 1999 – 2000. Do not conclude that NVIDIA will move significantly higher. Market Makers will only move NVIDIA as needed in order to lower other stock prices.

“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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The Buffett Indicator is a ratio of the total United States Stock market to GDP. As of August 31, 2024 the Market Valuation to GDP was 209%, and is in the +2.2 standard deviation range. Similar events have occurred in the past where this indicator was near or above the +2 standard deviation level. This includes 1961, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2021. Each peak occurred during the 4^th quarter. Once again, the Buffett Indicator is above the +2 standard deviation level. A 4^th quarter peak is expected before stock markets start moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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As of October 16, 2024 points 3, 4, and 5 on the NAAIM Index shown below are aligned within the October time frame. Markets are expected to move lower during the last half of October.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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On September 26, 2024 it was noted that active money managers were reducing their equity exposure. As of October 9, 2024, it appears they are reluctant to take on additional risk. With an October 9th NAAIM Index reading of 90.26 and Fear & Greed Index reading of 72, there is a low probability of equity managers accumulating a significant amount of risk assets. On October 19, 2022 and November 15, 2023 equity managers did have some room to the upside to accumulate additional risk assets. At this point it will not take much to move the Fear & Greed Index into its Extreme Greed category. To take advantage of this situation, Market Makers may raise equity prices quickly to distribute stock and sell short.

Fear & Greed Index readings relative to the following chart.
Point 1 – October 19, 2022 = 37
Point 2 – November 15, 2023 = 67
Point 3 – October 19, 2024 = 72

On September 21, 2024 it was noted that the  NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. It also noted that if the NAAIM index moved above the red trend line, markets would trend higher. As of September 25, 2024 the index dropped to 86.64. This indicates active money managers are reducing their equity exposure. It also indicates a higher probability of stock markets declining, as they did in October 2023 before moving higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the  NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The index hit a key point on September 18, 2024, as shown below. If the NAAIM index moves above the red trend line, then stock markets would be expected to trend higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

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On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern. If the NAAIM Index pattern continues as it did in 2022 and 2023, another rally would be expected going into the end of 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On July 20, 2024 Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations identified a series of key Commercial Trader British Pound positions in 2023 and 2024. This indicated the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ would repeat their performance of 2008. Currently the British Pound is repeating a peak that was formed in late October and early November 2007. Based on this data, stock markets are expected to have a significant decline in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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It appears the 2024 NVDA chart structure from June to August 2024 is similar to that of June to August of 2001. The 14.92 degree trend line indicates a decline is expected going into September and October.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On July 20, 2024 an exponential shift occurred when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This short position move was much larger than what occurred in 2007. After the July 2007 record of net short positions, stock markets started moving lower in October 2007.

On July 30, 2024 Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net long positions on July 23, 2024. This was well above the July 2007 record that occurred prior to the Dow and S&P500 peak in October2007.

In the chart below Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders repeated a 105 day performance of what occurred between May 29, 2018 and September 11, 2018.  After Swiss Franc traders changed direction in September 2018, stock markets started a decline in October 2018. This lasted until late December 2018.

It appears various currency futures traders are positioning for a stock market peak in late September or early October 2024. This would be followed by a substantial decline going into 2025.

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On July 20, 2024 it was noted that an exponential shift occurred when Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. That record level was broken last week by Commercial and Non-Commercial Futures Traders (Net Long-Short shown below).

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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An exponential shift occurred this week when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This is much larger than what occurred in 2007. It indicates Futures Traders are expecting a repeat performance of 2008 with a significant decline in 2025. As noted on July 19, 2024, a turn upward from the 8.92 degree trend line would lead to a peak in September – October 2024.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On July 17, 2024 Market Makers pushed prices higher using their standard practice of distributing stock at the close. It appears they are moving lower using a broadening formation in order to fill one gap created in the extended hours on July 8, 2024 at 4:10 AM. This will provide an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving higher. This is only one example of a coordinated effort using a multitude of trades each day.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On July 12, 2020 it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. In Extended Hours trading this morning a sharp rise in Intel occurred as Market Makers pushed prices higher. Their accumulation of inventory between April 30^th and July 10^th was coordinated with the current rise in markets.
This is only educational material. Not financial advice.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Veteran Wall Street Trader Reveals Strategies Used At Stock Exchanges
Richie Naso points out that algorithms and Market Makers control the market.

This is only for educational purposes. Not financial advice.

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Between October 2022 and June 2023 very large Intel block trades crossed the tape approximately every other month. This was followed by a steady move up into the end of 2023 before falling in 2024. Over the last two and one-half months it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace.  Typically this would be an accumulation process by Market Makers. But, with the Warren Buffet stock market indicator hitting an all-time high, as it did at the beginning of 2000, it is not clear what Market Maker’s intend to do.

Note that this information is for research purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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