Since June 2022 the NAAIM exposure index has been moving upward on an 18.32 degree trend line. Based on this trend it appears, at the moment, there is room for markets to move higher.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/Dow/NASDAQ: AAPL Block Trade Review
This block trade review found two AAPL trades of more than $1.6 billion occurred on December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021 before markets started their decline in 2022. Two more AAPL trades of more than $1.7 billion occurred on June 11, 2024 and June 20, 2024. It is an indication that Market Makers are expecting another decline in 2024.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/NASDAQ: NVIDIA Short Sale Trade Marker
On June 10, 2024 NVIDIA traded with a price of $195.95. This trade was treated as an anomaly and has been hidden from view by most data suppliers. What should be noted is that it was a short sale trade marker for exchange insiders. It is the inverse of what has occurred many times in the past for companies such as ADP on May 6, 2010 when a low of 17.528 crossed the tape. Since that time ADP moved to a closing price of 235.56 on July 5, 2024.
Note that charts are for research purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: AI Bubble
While the AI bubble sends a small group of tech stocks into a parabolic rise, Fred Hickey notes their valuations are similar to the Dutch tulip and South Sea mania.
Is A Meltdown In Tech Stocks Nearing As Doubts Of A.I.’s Impact Mount? | Fred Hickey
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Optimism
The following is one example of discussions that took place between December 11, 2023 and December 19, 2023 for the purpose of increasing market optimism near the top as Market Makers distributed (sold) millions of shares of stock from their company trading accounts.
Options interest is hitting a record high and Wall Street is racing to meet demand
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Makers
The Stock Market Is Rigged – Richard Ney
Between 2006 and 2008 the NYSE used the financial crisis as cover to quietly transition from a Specialist Unit system to a Designated Market Maker Unit system. Regardless of the new rules, Market Makers continue to use their merchandising operation to sell at the highs and buy at the lows.
“DMMs were conceived as a new type of market maker for a primarily electronic trading environment that had the ability, and the affirmative obligation, to contribute liquidity in a security by trading competitively for the DMM unit’s dealer account. DMMs were designed to function in a manner substantially different from the manner in which specialists had previously functioned on the Exchange.”
Federal Register Document Citation 88 FR 77625, pages: 77625-77642
NASDAQ: 5 Minute Gaps
The 5 minute chart gaps shown below also appear in the futures market 5 minute chart. Large gaps in stocks or stock indices on the stock exchanges may or may not be filled. It has been observed that large gaps in futures market index charts are filled within a relatively short period of time.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: Filling August Gap
Market Makers took the opportunity today to setup a process of filling any remaining gaps going back to August 2, 2023 and distribute significant quantities of inventory as the financial news media encourages retail investors to move into the markets. This opportunity was coordinated with the financial news media based on lower than expected Consumer Price Index numbers. A very large gap was created in the NASDAQ futures chart today when the CPI announcement occurred. Large gaps in the futures market are all filled within a relatively short period of time.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: December 2021 vs November 2023
It has been observed that structural changes in the NASDAQ 100 between November 10, 2021 and December 27, 2021 have similar characteristics to what occurred over a longer time frame in the NASDAQ 100 between July 10, 2023 and November 10, 2023. Underlying data indicates significant short selling occurred in the first half of November 2023, just as it did during the last half of December 2021. Technical indicators such as the CCI, Chalkin oscillator, and 15 day Stochastic are also in alignment between December 2021 and November 2023.
On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 and markets would move higher until November 8, 2023. As of November 10, 2023 the VIX continues to move lower with a close of 14.17. Stock markets are expected to move sideways during the week of November 13, 2023 while Congress struggles with the passage of a Government funding bill before November 17, 2023. Additional data will be needed to confirm markets move lower, just as they in in January 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/Dow/NASDAQ: Eight Point Decline Structure
The S&P500, Dow and NASDAQ are all using an eight point decline structure in their daily charts. This structure is typically found within a shorter duration, such as 1-hour futures charts, and was categorized as an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM. Based on Engrbytrade™ VIX futures trading data calculations noted on November 4, 2023 and eight point trading model structure development, this decline is expected to continue with the potential for completion in the first quarter of 2024.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ: VIX vs. NASDAQ
On November 4, 2023 it was noted that on October 31, 2023 the VIX was in a position similar to where it was on October 30, 2018 with a stock market rally expected to continue until November 8, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) before stock markets started moving lower. The following NASDAQ 100 charts provide a comparison to the position of the VIX. Based on Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations the NASDAQ is expected to move lower for the remainder of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: Pennant Forming
While Wall Street traders vacation in the Hampton’s and Federal Reserve members confirm their reservations for the August 24 – 26 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, markets continue to move higher. The following chart illustrates the formation of a pennant in the NASDAQ 100 index.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ: Change of Direction
A change of direction is near. The chart below illustrates that when the indicator moves above or below the red line, a change of direction occurs.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: 67.73% Retracement
At 2:58 p.m. today, the NASDAQ 100 hit 14,724.44 on a retracement level of 67.73%, as discussed on June 2, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Thrust
Don’t forget to keep an eye on Market Thrust for a change in market direction.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Media Announces Bull Market
When you see all media outlets proclaiming a bull market has started, it is an indication that Market Makers have sold their entire inventory and sold short. Expect a decline to begin, just as it did during the last half of May in 2008.
Headlines from June 9, 2023
Reuters
Behold Wall Street’s new bull market, maybe
Wall Street Journal
Enters New Bull Market as Big Tech Lifts Indexes
AP News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
CNN
It’s official. We’re in a bull market
ABC News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
NASDAQ 100: May 19, 2008 vs June 7, 2023
As of June 7, 2023 the NASDAQ 100 structure is tracking with the NASDAQ 100 May 19, 2008 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement structure shown below. Using this model provides the expectation of another move above the 61.8% level before making a move to lower levels. Looking back to news events on May 19, 2008, there are some similarities in the standard reasons they use to describe market moves.
Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5 19 2008
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: 67.73% Retracement
On June 2, 2023 it was noted that the NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 67.73% retracement pattern. In addition to this the NASDAQ 100 is also completing a 67.73% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between January 11, 1973 and October 29, 1973.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: 67.73% Retracement
On May 30, 2023 it was noted that the NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987. In addition to this the following charts from 2008 and 2023 provide some perspective on this move. Fibonacci is a guide. Detail calculations show the NASDAQ 100 conducted a 67.73% retracement from March 17, 2008 to June 5, 2008 before it started to decline. Today, a 67.73% move up from October 13, 2022 would provide a peak of 14,724.44 before a decline starts.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/NASDAQ100: $1 Trillion Companies
With NVIDIA being the latest to hit the $1 trillion valuation mark, it should be noted that there are companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (Facebook) and Tesla that have faced declines after reaching their $1 trillion valuation point. The following history provides some perspective on this.
August 2, 2018 – Apple is now a $1 trillion company
August 2, 2018 – $50.216
January 3, 2019 – $34.67
Declined 30.95%
September 4, 2018 – Amazon becomes second trillion-dollar Company in U.S.
September 4, 2018 – $101.97
December 24, 2018 – $67.19
Declined 34.10%
April 25, 2019 – Microsoft is now a $1 trillion company
April 25, 2019 – $126.18
June 3, 2019 – $117.51
Declined 6.87%
January 16, 2020 – Google parent Alphabet is now a $1 trillion company
January 16, 2020 – $72.50
March 23, 2020 – $52.70
Declined 27.31%
June 28, 2021 – Facebook (Meta) has become a $1 trillion company
June 28, 2021 – $355.64
November 3, 2022 – $88.91
Declined 75%
October 26, 2021 – Tesla is now worth more than $1 trillion
October 26, 2021 – $339.47
January 6, 2022 – $113.06
Declined 66.6%
Dow/NASDAQ100: 61.8% Retracement
The November 22, 2021 to May 30, 2023 NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ/Dow/SP500: Artificial Intelligence bubble
Dot Com Bubble Wall Street Documentary
December 2, 2018
Today you can substitute “Dot Com bubble” with “Artificial Intelligence bubble”.
NASDAQ/Dow: 2023 vs 1930
The development of parabolic structures is progressing. An Engrbytrade™ model representation of parabolic structures provides a comparison between the 1913 – 1933 Dow structure and 1993 – 2023 Dow structure. This parabolic structure also crosses over to the NASDAQ Composite, as shown below. A sharp decline in the NASDAQ is expected in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/NASDAQ: Dow Gap Below 34,617 Filled
Around 8:30 a.m. EST today the 5-minute Dow futures chart gap below 34,617, that was created at 2:00 p.m. on December 14, 2022, has been filled. The need to fill this gap was noted on January 28, 2023. One gap in the NASDAQ remains, as described on February 7, 2023.
S&P500/NASDAQ: Descending Triangle
Note that the S&P500 and NASDAQ 15-minute charts are in the process of forming a descending triangle. A decline is expected.