Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate silver is in a structural position similar to where it was on March 1, 2022.
Silver: Decline Signal
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations show silver will make another turn lower. This turning point is similar to what occurred after April 11, 2022 and June 6, 2022. Structural calculations still show silver will continue moving lower to 10.65 (+/- 1.5%).
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: Decline Continues
As of September 1, 2022, calculations show silver will continue moving lower to 10.65 (+/- 1.5%). This decline is expected to be similar to what occurred between September and October 2008. Before March 2023, the Silver Two Year Timeline will take effect and a move to significantly higher levels is expected due to trillions of Dollars that have been injected into the economy.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Silver: Tracking 2008
Engrbytrade daily and weekly calculations show the August 2022 decline in silver is still tracking with August 2008. As noted on July 20, 2022, a decline to 10.65 (+/- 1.5%) between November 1, 2022 and December 19, 2022, is still planned. Futures trading data shows that when this decline is complete, a long term move upward will start.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: Decline Continues
Futures trading data and engrbytrade structural calculations indicate silver will continue to move lower based on the original thesis noted on July 6, 2022. At this point silver is expected to ultimately reach 10.65 (+/- 1.5%) between November 1, 2022 and December 19, 2022. This is the same range that silver moved into during mid-September 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver/Gold: Hedge Funds and Billionaires
Hedge funds and billionaires are buying precious metals as prices decline during the last half of 2022.
Go to the 4:00 minute mark
Banks Go Long Precious Metals in Preview of Price Booms | Round Table
Silver: 2008 Decline
The upcoming July 2022 to October 2022 silver futures chart structure is expected to be similar to the July 2008 to October 2008 structure with a move below $13 as stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022. Upon completing this decline, a long term move upward should occur based on $3.9 trillion of combined stimulus from the 2020 CARES Act and 2021 American Rescue Plan that will eventually make its way through the financial system and move into gold and silver as a hedge against a declining Dollar. The upcoming move after 2022 should be similar to what occurred after $999 billion from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2008 made its way through the financial system during 2009 and 2010.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: 2022 Market Collapse
A change in daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate silver will start moving lower and drop below $13.00 by October as the economy and stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022.
Silver: June 2012
Weekly futures trading data, daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations and structural data indicate silver will move up to 25.17 before moving lower. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between June 28, 2012 and October 1, 2012.
Silver: Decline Is Expected
Daily engrbytrade™ calculation results indicate a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This data is similar to results appearing on March 17, 2022 and March 24, 2022 and it aligns with silver moving below its lower trend line, as noted on May 12, 2022.
Silver: Two Year Timeline
Regardless of political affiliation, each response to an economic slowdown results in the development and passage of a bill that will provide funds needed to assist the economy. As the size and scope of each bill continues to grow over time one side effect after two years from the passage of this type of bill is a price increase in silver. The following list is an example of what happens approximately two years after a major economic stimulus, recovery, growth, or rescue plan is passed and signed into law.
- On December 10, 1971 Richard Nixon signed the $15 billion Revenue Act of 1971. Two years later silver started a move upward from $3.05 on December 13, 1973 to $6.49 on February 27, 1974.
- On May 13, 1977 Jimmy Carter signed the $20.1 billion Economic Stimulus Appropriations Act of 1977. Two years later, silver started a move on May 11, 1979 from $8.35 to a high of $42.29 on January 24, 1980.
- On June 7, 2001 George W. Bush signed the $1.3 trillion Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001. Two years later, silver started a move on June 11, 2003 from $4.48 to a high of $8.45 on April 2, 2004.
- On February 13, 2008 George W. Bush signed the $152 billion Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Two years later, silver started a move on February 8, 2010 from $15 to $30.68 on January 3, 2011.
- On February 17, 2009 Barack Obama signed the $831 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Two years later silver started a move on January 25, 2011 from $26.86 to a high of $49.80 on April 25, 2011.
- On March 11, 2021 Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. It is expected that starting two years later (March 2023) silver will initiate another significant move to higher levels.
Silver: Lower Trendline
Silver has broken its lower trend line as shown in the chart below. This is similar to what occurred in August 2008. The current decline is expected to continue until November 2022.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: 2008 vs 2022
Intermarket futures trading data calculations confirm that a decline in silver is near. The 2022 chart below shows silver is in a descending triangle with a similar rate of decline to that of 2008.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: Falling Wedge
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As silver continues to move through a falling wedge, as shown above, it is still expected to reach 27.79 in order to close a gap in the 30 minute futures chart that was created on June 16, 2021 before moving lower.
Silver: Gap 27.79
Daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations continue to indicate a move upward. In addition to the move to 27.05 as noted on March 15, 2022, updates indicate silver is also expected to move to 27.79 in order to close a gap in the 30 minute futures chart that was created on June 16, 2021 before moving lower.
Silver: 27.05 Gap
Daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations indicate a move back up to 27.05 in order to close a gap in the 5 minute futures chart that was created in overnight trading on March 9, 2022. This move is expected to be complete prior to silver’s decline to significantly lower levels this year as the Dow collapses.
Silver: Filling Gaps
Prior to moving lower, silver has one gap left to fill that was created on June 16, 2021. This will require a move up to 27.79 prior to moving lower.
Silver: Rising Wedge
During the day of March 4, 2022 the 5 minute chart developed a rising wedge. Since this structure was completed prior to the end of the trading day, a decline is expected to start and fill several gaps on the way down to 23.53. A move to 19.18 is still expected.
Silver: Decline Starting
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on intermarket futures trading data and structural calculations, silver is starting a decline that is expected to be similar to the decline between June 14, 2018 and September 11, 2018. Preliminary calculations show a drop to 19.18 is expected.
Silver: Silver vs. U.S. Dollar
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate silver is in a position with the U.S. Dollar that is similar to where it was in September 2008 and is quickly approaching the point of initiating a decline to 18.81 (+/- 5%) before moving higher. After completing this decline, both silver and palladium are expected to move significantly higher over the next two years as stock markets collapse in 2022 and 2023. Gold is lagging behind, but its position could change quickly based on 2008 characteristics that are developing.
Silver: Structural Changes
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Futures trading data calculations indicate the silver structure shown above has taken on characteristics of the January 2011 to April 2013 silver structure. Silver is still positioned for a decline as it moves through the descending triangle shown above. Based on structural calculation changes silver is expected to move down to $18.81 (+/- 5%) before the end of 2021.
Silver: October Decline
In the August 28, 2021 post it was noted that calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. As of October 1, 2021, current structural calculations indicate silver is in a similar position to where it was on August 8, 2008. Based on 2008 vs 2021 structural data, silver is expected to move down to $16.00 (+/- 5%) by October 18, 2021.
Silver: Two Part Move
Intermarket trading data calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. The first part is expected to move silver down to 19.28 before the end of 2021. Following the decline in 2021, a second move down to 16.35 is expected to start during the first quarter of 2022. It should be noted that over the long term, calculations have shown silver is expected to produce a similar parabolic structure as the move between November 2001 and April 2011. The current long term structure started in September 2018.
Silver: Downward Trend
A downward trend remains intact for silver as the U.S. Dollar continues to move up while the British Pound moves lower this year. Silver is expected to reach 21.00 by the end of November 2021.
Silver: Deflationary Forces
Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate a decline in silver. With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar. It also aligns with a peak in the price of silver against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Silver post on May 16, 2021. A repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 is expected where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of silver much lower over the next three years.