As of November 13, 2024 points 1, 2, and 3 indicate markets are expected to move higher. The NAAIM Index aligns with expectations of a year-end rally, as noted on November 13, 2024.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple Block Trades
Behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns. One series of large Apple block trades appeared between March and May of 2024 at the bottom of a falling wedge. Another series of trades appeared recently in an ascending triangle between late September and November 2024. Based on their trading patterns in large cap stocks, such as Apple, markets are on track for a move upward going into the end of 2024.
Note that scanning for block trades should be available on most trading platforms.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 6, 2024
As of November 6, 2024 NAAIM Index point 3 on the following chart aligns with October 19, 2022 and October 18, 2023. This supports the expectation of a year-end rally, as noted on November 6, 2024.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Year-End Rally
On October 27, 2024 it was noted that a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. This year-end rally would complete the 4th quarter peak discussed on October 20, 2024 before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA
On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak was expected before stock markets moved lower. To support this, Exchange Insiders setup Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA in the Dow.
History shows Intel’s inclusion in the Dow on November 1, 1999 provided Market Makers with an ability to move other stocks lower in 2000, while Intel moved higher. Declining stocks included Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Nike, and Proctor & Gamble. Market Makers were able to convince investors to stay in the market during 2000 as the Dow moved sideways. Overall, this process is a merchandising operation. Market Makers will need to move other stock prices lower in 2025 in order to buy additional inventory for the future.
The 40.9 degree angle shown below on NVIDIA’s chart is the same as Intel’s angle during 1999 – 2000. Do not conclude that NVIDIA will move significantly higher. Market Makers will only move NVIDIA as needed in order to lower other stock prices.
“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/NASDAQ: NVIDIA Ascending Triangle
On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. Development of the NVIDIA ascending triangle shown below indicated a planned effort was underway based on placement of Market Maker’s large block trades. Their trading patterns supported an effective method of accumulation and distribution of inventory. At this point history shows a 70% chance of movement to the upside. This pattern is similar to Apple’s chart between July – October 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and illustrates observations of trade patterns. It is not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Open Futures Gaps are Rarely Abandoned
On September 9, 2024 a Dow chart identified three gaps that needed to be filled. The S&P500 had two gaps. As of today, the large Dow and S&P500 gaps created on August 8, 2024 have not been filled. This is extremely unusual, particularly in the futures market where open futures gaps are rarely abandoned. This would indicate plans are being made to return to these levels in order to fill the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following table provides a list of Dow Futures gaps since August 8, 2024.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: 4th Quarter Peak
The Buffett Indicator is a ratio of the total United States Stock market to GDP. As of August 31, 2024 the Market Valuation to GDP was 209%, and is in the +2.2 standard deviation range. Similar events have occurred in the past where this indicator was near or above the +2 standard deviation level. This includes 1961, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2021. Each peak occurred during the 4th quarter. Once again, the Buffett Indicator is above the +2 standard deviation level. A 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets start moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 16, 2024
As of October 16, 2024 points 3, 4, and 5 on the NAAIM Index shown below are aligned within the October time frame. Markets are expected to move lower during the last half of October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500: Hindenburg Omen September 2024
The weekly Hindenburg Omen September 2024 index shows a reading of 3.0 on September 3, 2024 and September 10, 2024. A review of previous double peaks shows the following declines. Be prepared.
- January 16, 2018, January 22, 2018 – February 2018 decline
- September 4, 2018, September 17, 2018 – October – December 2018 decline
- January 27, 2020, February 18, 2020 – February – March 2020 decline
- September 3, 2024, September 10, 2024 – October – December decline?
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 9, 2024
On September 26, 2024 it was noted that active money managers were reducing their equity exposure. As of October 9, 2024, it appears they are reluctant to take on additional risk. With an October 9th NAAIM Index reading of 90.26 and Fear & Greed Index reading of 72, there is a low probability of equity managers accumulating a significant amount of risk assets. On October 19, 2022 and November 15, 2023 equity managers did have some room to the upside to accumulate additional risk assets. At this point it will not take much to move the Fear & Greed Index into its Extreme Greed category. To take advantage of this situation, Market Makers may raise equity prices quickly to distribute stock and sell short.
Fear & Greed Index readings relative to the following chart.
Point 1 – October 19, 2022 = 37
Point 2 – November 15, 2023 = 67
Point 3 – October 19, 2024 = 72
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – September 25, 2024
On September 21, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. It also noted that if the NAAIM index moved above the red trend line, markets would trend higher. As of September 25, 2024 the index dropped to 86.64. This indicates active money managers are reducing their equity exposure. It also indicates a higher probability of stock markets declining, as they did in October 2023 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500: New 52-Week Highs
Something that should not be overlooked is the NYSE New 52-Week Highs chart. It appears that Market Makers are in the process of selling as Retail Investors continue to buy. Over the last two years this has been a consistent contrarian indicator.
“….it is not demand that causes rising stock prices but rising stock prices that cause demand.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Update
On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The index hit a key point on September 18, 2024, as shown below. If the NAAIM index moves above the red trend line, then stock markets would be expected to trend higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Pattern Continues
On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern. If the NAAIM Index pattern continues as it did in 2022 and 2023, another rally would be expected going into the end of 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Significant Decline Update
On July 20, 2024 Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations identified a series of key Commercial Trader British Pound positions in 2023 and 2024. This indicated the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ would repeat their performance of 2008. Currently the British Pound is repeating a peak that was formed in late October and early November 2007. Based on this data, stock markets are expected to have a significant decline in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Fibonacci Expectations
On September 13, 2024 it was noted that the S&P500 candlestick on September 11, 2024 was similar to the January 24, 2022 candlestick. A review of the following 1-hour charts provided additional Fibonacci expectations that 2024 would be very similar to 2022. The Dow is currently expected to move up to the 1.68 level before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Candlestick Characteristics
Engrbytrade™ Daily Trade Pattern Structure Calculations show the candlestick on September 11, 2024 has similar candlestick characteristics as the one on January 24, 2022. A brief move to the upside is expected for computers and Market Makers to distribute their inventory to retail investors.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Utilities Industry Group
Between July 31st and August 1st 2024 the S&P500 Utilities Sector Bullish Percent Index moved up to 96.67. There was a brief decline during the beginning of August. Then it moved up to 96.67 again between August 14, 2024 and September 3, 2024.
Previously, the Utilities Sector Bullish Index moved up to 96.55 during August and September 2022. This was followed by a sharp decline in the Utilities Industry Group Index
The current bullish reading of 96.67 indicates the Utilities Industry Group Index is overvalued.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: The Markets Are Rigged
Yes, The Markets Are Rigged
In 2008 the NYSE transitioned from Specialists to Designated Market Makers and Supplemental Liquidity Providers. It is still a merchandising operation.
Approved NYSE Supplemental Liquidity Providing (SLP-PROP) Firms
HRT Financial LLC
IMC Chicago LLC
Latour Trading, LLC
Tradebot Systems, Inc.
Virtu Americas LLC
Approved NYSE Designated Market Makers
Citadel Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Company
Virtu Americas LLC
Dow/S&P500: Hindenburg Omen Index
Research into the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index revealed comparable points to the weekly 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Futures Trader Net chart. In 2018 the weekly omen index hit 3.0 on September 4th, 10th, and 17th. On September 25, 2018 Non-Commercial Futures trader positions hit a low in the 10-Yr Note, as shown on the chart below. On October 4, 2018 the Dow and S&P500 started a decline that continued to the end of December 2018.
In comparison to 2018, the index recently hit 3.00 on September 3rd and 9th. At this point 10-Yr Note Futures traders are aligned closely with the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index. If the index hits 3.0 again, there is a high probability of a decline going into the end of 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Index chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Gap Open for 32 Days
On September 5, 2024 it was noted that futures gaps were still left to fill for the Dow and S&P500. Each index still has a one gap that has been open for 32 days, which is quite unusual. Investing.com can provide charts for Dow and S&P500 futures, if you are interested. Use a 5-minute chart with candlesticks to view the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Patterns Emerge
On September 3, 2024 a net reportable positions of S&P500 clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers chart was developed. A review of relatively small variances provided a high correlation of key turning points where patterns emerge. Based on this data five out of six dates above the red line were starting points for an ascending broadening wedge. The most recent move was an ascending broadening wedge formed between December 5, 2023 and September 3, 2024. This is similar to what occurred between June 1, 2021 and February 11, 2022.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
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Dow/S&P500: August to October 2023 Patterns
The latest NAAIM update indicates the Dow 8 point chart shown below is complete. At this point the Dow and S&P500 are expected to follow their August to October 2023 patterns. This move would also line up with computer algorithms working to fill remaining futures gaps created in August 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Unfinished Business
It appears that computer algorithms are working on some unfinished business related to filling futures gaps. On August 27, 2024 it was noted that there were still two open futures gaps to fill. The S&P500 is very close to filling its first futures gap created on August 15, 2024. It has been open for 21 days.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
