Intermarket structural analysis research
The NAAIM Exposure Index below the trend line on April 2, 2025 is in an extreme position similar to where it was on October 25, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.
A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The NAAIM Exposure Index is moving in a direction where a brief pull back in markets could occur. This data also indicates markets are still expected to move higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.
Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.
Step 3. Fear: March 4, 2025 through March 8, 2025
March 4, 2024, CNBC discussed the potential impact tariffs will have on Apple.
March 8, 2025, Forbes Article– Apple Stock To Fall 30%?
Step 4. Sell: March 10, 2025
Market Makers accelerate the decline with a 4.8% drop during the day.
Step 5. Extreme Fear: March 11, 2025
The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 13.
Step 6. Buy: March 18, 2025
Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.
Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.
1. Alignment of the 2018 and 2025 US 10-Yr Note vs 2025 Dow index.
2. Indications of capital moving to Swiss Francs.
3. The expectation of crude oil moving lower.
4. Market Maker accumulation of TLT.
5. The growing number of Dow stocks collapsing since 2020.
6. Engrbytrade markers pointing to a decline going into the end of 2026
7. As of November 9, 2024 the Buffett Indicator (Market Valuation to GDP) was 209%.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On March 10, 2025 it was reported that hedge funds were unwinding risk just as they did in the early days of COVID. On March 11, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 17. During the trading day the index hit a low of 13. On March 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 68.80. The following NAAIM chart is an update of an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points. This chart illustrates how Fear & Greed Index lows are following a trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move sideways for at least one week. This could last as long as 30 days before moving higher.
In addition to this, the CNN “Safe Haven Demand” chart shown below provides some perspective on the long term performance expectations between stocks and bonds. The last low point was on August 5, 2024.
On March 4, 2025 the CNN Fear & Greed Index closed with a reading of 22. During the trading day the index hit a low of 14. On March 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index hit 74.96. The following chart provides an overlay of the Fear & Greed Index marker low points on top of the NAAIM Exposure Index. This chart illustrates how three out of five Fear & Greed Index lows are in alignment on the same NAAIM trend line. Based on this trend line the Dow and S&P500 would be expected to move higher for the next four months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers
On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started moving higher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.
Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.
The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.
The CNN Fear and Greed Indicator uses seven technical indicators to provide a reading between 0 – 100. Since August 2022 readings at the close have been moving between a low of 14 and high of 85. When the reading briefly drops between 20 and 35, markets would be expected to trend higher. When readings drop below 20, there is a high probability that markets will move higher. There have been four readings below 20 between 2022 and 2025. They are noted in the following chart. If there is a sharp sell off over the next few weeks with a Fear and Greed reading below 20 at the close, then markets would be expected to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
There are major signals from 2011 that are repeating today.
They include:
1. A significant accumulation of TLT,
2. Extreme futures trader positions in the Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, 10-Yr Note, and
3. The completion of a gold cycle.
In addition to the above signals a silent collapse of Dow stocks is in progress.
Based on the above signals a significant event is coming in the weeks ahead and would be expected to shake the financial system. It may not have an immediate impact on stock markets, but the flight to safety will be obvious. Interest rates will decline. A short quick decline in the stock market could occur, but affected stocks will drop dramatically as the year progresses. This also means the U.S. Dollar will start a long term trend to move higher over the next several years. Gold will immediately hit a peak and then start a long term decline as the Dollar moves higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following charts indicate Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders are near the end of a short selling cycle. Based on Commercial Trader positions, countries repatriating gold, tariffs, etc., banks, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and global corporations expect stock market and currency volatility in 2025 and 2026. They will move to Swiss Francs, among other stable assets, for safety just as they did in 2019 and 2020.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Currency chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 23, 2024 British Pound Non-Commercial Futures Trader positions hit a record level. This British Pound connection has an intermarket relationship with U.S. stock markets. On July 17, 2007 British Pound Non-Commercial Trader positions peaked, as shown below. This was followed by a decline in the British Pound and U.S. stock markets in 2008. The British Pound just moved into a position that is similar to where it was in March 2008. Futures trader positions indicate a significant amount of capital is moving in preparation for a major stock market decline in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
During the first seven trading days of February 2025 there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of six and seven figure block trades within the Dow. This includes AXP, BA, CAT, GS, HD, HON, MCD, MMM, SHW, TRV, and UNH. This decrease in volume can also be observed in the following chart as the S&P500 moves through a rising wedge. Either someone cut off a funding source(s) or Market Makers are waiting for something.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A previous post on February 3, 2025 noted that a global financial crisis is on the way. A closer look at Dow stocks on an arithmetic scale shows that it can be interesting to watch companies such as Walmart going parabolic. Walmart may stall, as it did in 2000 and move sideways for several years. But after Walmart hit its peak in 2000, the “tech bubble” popped and brought about losses that are still discussed today. There are numerous headlines about reducing the debt, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos selling stock, jobs, inflation, etc., etc. What is important are the positions that Market Makers are taking to setup for a decline. Since they run a “merchandising operation”, sales to pension funds, hedge funds, and large institutions would be in order at this point. In January 2025 there was a significant increase in the number of extremely large blocks of stock crossing the tape. As this occurred, active investment managers increased their exposure between the end of January and beginning of February.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On December 19, 2024 it was noted that over the last several years Market Makers have been working on a parabolic structure for IBM. The following IBM charts include Engrbytrade™ markers within the structures. Connecting markers between 2010 and 2025 shows a projected low in the $60 to $70 range by mid- 2026. This aligns with the following S&P500 chart showing a projected low in 2026. A similar collapse occurred with Intel between April 2021 and February 2025. Markers still indicate Intel could drop below $10.
The following charts are also an indication that a global financial crisis is on the way. In 1987, Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued the “Stock Market Crash of 1987” essay. They included the following point. “….a new product from US investment firms, known as “portfolio insurance,” had become very popular. It included extensive use of options and derivatives and accelerated the crash’s pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling.”
Today the growth of derivatives continues toward estimated values as high as $2.3 quadrillion. New speculative products such as Zero-Day options, Bitcoin ETFs, etc. are just a repeat of what led up to the 1987 crash.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on extremely large block trades crossing the tape over the last four weeks, it appears capital has been moving out of stocks. This aligns with what occurred in August 2022 and August 2023 when active managers were reducing their risk exposure. In order for a sustainable rally to continue the index would first need to drop below the lower trend line with a reading of 60 or below. This would provide Market Makers with an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving prices higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers
Devalued Dollar Will Crash the DOW – Martin Armstrong
Trump might try to lower the value of the US dollar to help offset the trade deficit. Lowering the value of the Dollar will cause oil, gold, etc., to rise. The stock market could also collapse by 40% to 50%.
The Dow and S&P500 chart structures between October 7, 2024 and January 23, 2025 are similar to the Dow and S&P500 chart structures between July 29, 1929 and October 11, 1929. Current conditions noted on January 21, 2025 showed a repeat of the October and November 2023 chart structure with the potential of moving higher in 2025. This could change quickly depending on what the Fed does with interest rates on January 29, 2025. It is a wait and see situation with the Fed.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Today the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a reading of 41 at the market close. The range of CNN index readings between December 19, 2024 and January 21, 2025 are similar to what occurred between October 5, 2023 and November 3, 2023. This sequence of index readings prompted a review of extremely large block trades in the Dow during each time frame. Based on the results of a Dow 30 big block review, it appears we are seeing a repeat of October and November 2023 where the markets are expected to move higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Apple has declined 11.2% since December 26, 2024. As Apple continues to decline, the press will provide various excuses to retail investors. The press will never mention anything about Market Makers selling (distributing) big blocks of stock to institutions. Reviewing the 2024 – 2025 chart below, a continuous move upward would have been expected using an ascending triangle. There was some 2024 year-end big block selling. But, since then extremely large (7 figure) block trading activity started to increase as the stock dropped below its ascending triangle.
The current Apple chart structure and ascending triangle is a repeat of 2012, as shown in the second chart. Since Apple is 14th in the Dow’s weight ranking list, a decline should not have a dramatic impact on the index. With a mid-ranking weight Dow stock, a slow but steady decline, and the media continuously saying markets will move higher, retail investors are expected to end up with a loss.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On December 28, 2024 it was noted that the last quarter of 2024 was expected to be a market peak period. This was based on the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio hitting 203.69%. In addition to this the Dow continues to move higher while a silent collapse is in progress. The 2020 – 2025 list of stocks shown below have had significant declines from their highs as early as 2020. This is very similar to what occurred when the Dow moved sideways as stocks started a silent collapse between 2000 and 2001. By 2004 fourteen stocks in the Dow 30 had experienced a significant decline. This process started again in 2020 and will continue through 2025. Note that the 2020 – 2025 chart structure will not be similar to that of 2000 – 2004, but Market Maker techniques for a silent collapse will be.
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the specialists (Market Makers) who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
The Silent Collapse Lists
2020 – 2025
BA – 2020 – 2025
DIS – 2021 – 2025
MMM – 2021 – 2025
INTC – 2021 – 2025
NKE – 2021 – 2025
VZ – 2021 – 2025
2000 – 2004
AAPL – 2000
AMZN – 2000
AXP – 2000 -2001
BA – 2001- 2003
CSCO – 2000 – 2001
DIS – 2000 – 2002
HD – 2000 – 2003
HON – 1999 – 2002
INTC – 2000 – 2002
JPM – 2000 – 2002
MCD – 2000 – 2003
MRK – 2001 – 2004
MSFT – 2000
PG – 2000
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 23, 2024 a record level of Non-Commercial Futures Traders Net (Long-Short) positions was recorded for the British Pound. This is well above the previous record set on July 17, 2007. After the July 2007 futures positions peak there was a delay of approximately three and one half months before the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ started a decline. The 10-Yr Note yield was also in decline during this time. With a significantly larger number of futures trader positions recorded on July 23, 2024, a longer delay for a decline in the stock markets is anticipated. It has been five and one half months since the peak on July 23, 2024. The 10-Yr Note yield is currently in decline, as it was in 2007. A decline in the stock markets is still expected as capital from around the world continues to move into U.S. Dollars.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock and currency charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Preliminary analysis of the S&P500 chart shows three Engrbytrade™ marker sets indicating an end point in March 2026. This end point currently provides a price range between 1250 and 1500. The development of this method is based on research of repeatability from previous sets found over decades. A set of markers, or identifiable low points, within the S&P500 chart structure should align to reach a future end point. This evaluation is also done on an arithmetic chart scale, not a logarithmic scale. It provides an end point within a general time frame and price range. A minimum of two marker sets are needed in order to conduct this type of analysis. One example is shown in the second S&P500 chart covering the 1966 to 1975 time frame. Markers should also align with the expectation of an upcoming market decline. This includes topics such as:
Marker locations may be added based on future events and price changes. At this point it is not clear if these chart structures are intentionally designed and executed as part of a plan. This work is focused on major indices, not stocks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Up to December 11, 2024 investment managers were moving in a direction of being fully invested. Since that time the S&P500 moved down from 6084.19 to 5881.63 on December 31, 2024. The NAAIM index has moved back to a trend line where investment managers are expected to position for a brief rally followed by a decline. A move below the lower trend line would indicate another move upward is expected. Next week should provide additional insight into the direction stock markets.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The Long View: How to Spot a Market Bubble
Jeremy Grantham discusses tips for investors and how the rise of AI compares with previous market bubble bursts.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.