Intermarket structural analysis research
On September 5, 2024 it was noted that futures gaps were still left to fill for the Dow and S&P500. Each index still has a one gap that has been open for 32 days, which is quite unusual. Investing.com can provide charts for Dow and S&P500 futures, if you are interested. Use a 5-minute chart with candlesticks to view the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 3, 2024 a net reportable positions of S&P500 clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers chart was developed. A review of relatively small variances provided a high correlation of key turning points where patterns emerge. Based on this data five out of six dates above the red line were starting points for an ascending broadening wedge. The most recent move was an ascending broadening wedge formed between December 5, 2023 and September 3, 2024. This is similar to what occurred between June 1, 2021 and February 11, 2022.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
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The latest NAAIM update indicates the Dow 8 point chart shown below is complete. At this point the Dow and S&P500 are expected to follow their August to October 2023 patterns. This move would also line up with computer algorithms working to fill remaining futures gaps created in August 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears that computer algorithms are working on some unfinished business related to filling futures gaps. On August 27, 2024 it was noted that there were still two open futures gaps to fill. The S&P500 is very close to filling its first futures gap created on August 15, 2024. It has been open for 21 days.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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A review of the August 30, 2024 NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The Dow continues to move higher and is expected to briefly touch its 16.83 degree upper trend line. This will complete the 2021 chart structure guide discussed on August 22, 2024.
Market Maker big block distributions after August 5, 2024 have been relatively light and are focused on a few big tech stocks and ETFs such as the SPY. This indicates Market Makers are planning to accumulate additional inventory during the next decline.
Overall, there are very few sector bullish percentage indices that are overvalued. Examples include the S&P Health Care Sector and S&P Real Estate Sector.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears the 2024 NVDA chart structure from June to August 2024 is similar to that of June to August of 2001. The 14.92 degree trend line indicates a decline is expected going into September and October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On August 24, 2024 it was noted that contact with the IBM 1987 upper trend line was expected in late August or early September. On August 28, 2024 IBM hit its 1987 37.18 degree trend line shown below. IBM is expected to continue following its 1987 chart structure. When IBM hit its peak on August 21, 1987 it started a decline that ended on October 19, 1987. If a large number of stocks collapse in October, markets will close just as they did in 1987 and brokers will not respond.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Market Makers continue to proceed to the 16.83 degree upper trend line discussed on August 26, 2024, At this point there are still two open futures gaps. On August 8, 2024 and August 15, 2024 gaps were created in the Dow and S&P500 futures 5- minute charts. The majority of gaps created in these futures have a high probability of filling within a 5 day window. A sampling of 22 gaps in the Dow futures 5-minute chart between January 17, 2024 and August 4, 2024 were identified. Out of this sample 15 filled in less than 5 days. Five filled between 5 and 15 days, and 2 filled after 15 days. The Dow gaps noted above have been open 19 days and 12 days, respectively. Based on historical data, this indicates both gaps should fill before the September options expiration date.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On April 27, 2024 it was noted that structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM chart were similar to that of 1986 – 1987. On August 1, 2024 a review indicated IBM was still on track to reach its 37.18 degree upper trend line. The following charts show contact in late August or early September would be expected for the IBM 1987 trend line.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 5, 2024 the Dow and S&P500 hit their lows of 38499.27 and 5119.26, respectively. Market Makers used this decline as an opportunity to accumulate additional stock (inventory). Based on the accelerated move from August 5, 2024 to August 16, 2024 a pullback is expected over the next several trading days, before moving higher. Trading patterns during the week of August 19, 2024 are also expected to be similar to the following.
In addition to this, sentiment calculations show a very brief pullback is expected before moving higher.
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On May 4, 2024 it was noted that Futures Traders were still waiting for a decline in rates and that it would be generated by the bond market, not the Fed. Since then, the 10Yr Note rate has dropped from 4.52 to 3.88 without a Fed rate cut. Futures trading data continues to confirm the 10Y Note rate is expected to decline. The mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note rate structure positioning is in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500.
Stock charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A brief pullback in the market is expected to be similar to what occurred between October 5, 202 to October 12, 2022 or October 18, 2023 to October 27, 2023. This could also turn into something much larger. On August 14, 2024 the WHO declared mpox as a public health emergency of international concern. If this situation continues to grow it could turn into a repeat of 2020.
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The Market Maker accumulation process was in full swing on August 5, 2024. For example, it appears they accumulated at least 5 times the number of shares in the SPY that they normally would on an average day. This inventory will be redistributed as the markets move higher. In the background, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hit 18 with an intraday low of 16. In comparison this index closed with a low of 17 on October 11, 2022. The Dow is still on track with the 2021 eight point chart shown below.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 20, 2024 an exponential shift occurred when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This short position move was much larger than what occurred in 2007. After the July 2007 record of net short positions, stock markets started moving lower in October 2007.
On July 30, 2024 Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net long positions on July 23, 2024. This was well above the July 2007 record that occurred prior to the Dow and S&P500 peak in October2007.
In the chart below Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders repeated a 105 day performance of what occurred between May 29, 2018 and September 11, 2018. After Swiss Franc traders changed direction in September 2018, stock markets started a decline in October 2018. This lasted until late December 2018.
It appears various currency futures traders are positioning for a stock market peak in late September or early October 2024. This would be followed by a substantial decline going into 2025.
On July 25, 2024 it was noted that bond traders were preparing for a stock market decline. It also appeared the Federal Reserve was following an interest rate path similar to 2007. The charts below indicate the current 10-Yr Note rate is still on a July 2007 trajectory. The August 2, 2024 10-Yr Note rate decline aligns with the decline on July 26, 2007. This places the current Dow and S&P500 in a position that is similar to where they were late July 2007.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On April 27, 2024 it was noted that IBM structural calculation results of 2017 – 2024 were similar to 1986 – 1987. It appears IBM is still tracking 1987 and could reach the 37.18 degree upper trend line in August 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 20, 2024 it was noted that an exponential shift occurred when Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. That record level was broken last week by Commercial and Non-Commercial Futures Traders (Net Long-Short shown below).
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Market Makers and algorithms are consistent with their trading patterns. This can be illustrated in the following charts. An angle of 25.94 degrees provides clarity to their plans for this year with an October 2024 peak that is expected to follow the basic pattern of 2007. Extremely large block trades indicate Market Makers are also accumulating interest rate derivatives. This includes products such as TLT in preparation for a steady decline of interest rates going into 2025.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
An exponential shift occurred this week when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This is much larger than what occurred in 2007. It indicates Futures Traders are expecting a repeat performance of 2008 with a significant decline in 2025. As noted on July 19, 2024, a turn upward from the 8.92 degree trend line would lead to a peak in September – October 2024.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 17, 2024 Market Makers pushed prices higher using their standard practice of distributing stock at the close. It appears they are moving lower using a broadening formation in order to fill one gap created in the extended hours on July 8, 2024 at 4:10 AM. This will provide an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving higher. This is only one example of a coordinated effort using a multitude of trades each day.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 12, 2020 it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. In Extended Hours trading this morning a sharp rise in Intel occurred as Market Makers pushed prices higher. Their accumulation of inventory between April 30th and July 10th was coordinated with the current rise in markets.
This is only educational material. Not financial advice.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Veteran Wall Street Trader Reveals Strategies Used At Stock Exchanges
Richie Naso points out that algorithms and Market Makers control the market.
This is only for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
Between October 2022 and June 2023 very large Intel block trades crossed the tape approximately every other month. This was followed by a steady move up into the end of 2023 before falling in 2024. Over the last two and one-half months it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. Typically this would be an accumulation process by Market Makers. But, with the Warren Buffet stock market indicator hitting an all-time high, as it did at the beginning of 2000, it is not clear what Market Maker’s intend to do.
Note that this information is for research purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since June 2022 the NAAIM exposure index has been moving upward on an 18.32 degree trend line. Based on this trend it appears, at the moment, there is room for markets to move higher.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
This block trade review found two AAPL trades of more than $1.6 billion occurred on December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021 before markets started their decline in 2022. Two more AAPL trades of more than $1.7 billion occurred on June 11, 2024 and June 20, 2024. It is an indication that Market Makers are expecting another decline in 2024.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
