Engrbytrade Posts - Intermarket structural analysis research

September 8, 2023 10:50 am

S&P500: Decline In 2024

A review of daily Engrbytrade™ S&P500 trading calculations between May 27, 2021 and September 1, 2021 indicated strategic trade positioning occurred during this time frame in preparation for a decline in 2022. This is based on extreme Engrbytrade™ readings from very subtle movements in price during the trading days of May 27, 2021, June 25, 2021, August 4, 2021, August 13, 2021, August 24, 2021, and August 31, 2021.

Similar strategic trade positioning activity appeared between May 9, 2023 and July 31, 2023 where extreme readings were noted on May 9, 2023, May 31, 2023, June 23, 2023, July 19, 2023, July 21, 2023, and July 31, 2023. Based on May – July 2023 readings, the remainder of 2023 is expected to remain volatile followed by a decline in 2024.

Stock chart courtesy of com.

September 6, 2023 9:22 am

Dow: Mini Dow Futures Update

On July 31, 2023, it was noted that Engrbytrade™ Dow daily derivative related calculations from CBOT Mini Dow futures trading data indicated a topping process was in progress. As of September 5, 2023 two out of three Mini Dow futures signals have been received. It was also observed that an indication of repetitive computer program selling appeared within a four day window of each Mini Dow futures signal. Computer program selling is not an unusual activity, but being so close to each Mini Dow signal should be noted. The following charts show a comparison between the February 2023 to September 2023 structure and the August 2021 and January 2022 structure.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

September 4, 2023 2:34 pm

Bitcoin: British Pound Leading Indicator

As noted on September 3, 2023, futures trading data indicates the British Pound is currently in a similar position to where it was in July 2014. A decline in the British Pound would be expected to coincide with a rise in the U.S. Dollar and a decline in Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s move to lower levels would align with the Bitcoin / Euro Model.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

September 3, 2023 9:50 am

US Dollar: British Pound Leading Indicator

As of August 29, 2023 futures traders accumulated an extremely large number of positions in the British Pound that are similar to what they accumulated in July 2014. Using this data as a leading indicator the end result of this accumulation is an expectation of a sharp decline in the British Pound, along with a corresponding sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar in 2023 and 2024. Using the 2014 U.S. Dollar structure, a move up to 150 over the next 12 months would be in line with related Fibonacci calculations. This will have a significant deflationary impact on major currencies and commodities in 2023 and 2024.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 29, 2023 1:58 pm

Dow: Repeat of 2019 – 2020

The 2023 structure illustrated below indicates Market Makers are trying to repeat the performance of 2019 – 2020. If the current Dow structure continues to follow the 2019 – 2020 pattern and moves above its 161.80% level there is a high probability of a sharp decline.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 27, 2023 12:10 pm

S&P500: E-Mini 500 Futures Signal

On May 30, 2023, weekly Engrbytrade™ calculations indicated E-Mini S&P 500 futures trader positions were in an extreme position similar to where they were on September 11, 2007. This has been monitored closely over the last month to see if a structure developed that is similar to what appeared during the last quarter of 2007. The charts below provide a comparison between 2023 and 2007. Additional data will be needed to see if Market Makers and futures traders follow through with another 2007 structure.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 26, 2023 3:31 pm

Interest Rates: 10-Yr Note August 2023

On July 7, 2023, data from the 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders Net (Long – Short) chart reflected underlying trading data where the 10-Yr Note peaked on September 25, 2018 as well as indicating another peak was expected very soon in 2023. Based on timeline percentages shown in the 2018 and 2023 10Yr-Note charts below, it appears the 10-Yr Note peaked on August 22, 2023. Additional work will be needed to see what the impact will be on equity markets.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 25, 2023 3:41 am

Bitcoin: Dollar Strength

Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation and is expected to move higher, just as it did in 2022. This will drive the value of various products lower, including Bitcoin. On July 6, 2023, it was noted that international bankers, BlackRock, et al., want to drive asset prices lower in order to buy them for pennies on the Dollar. Bitcoin is currently in the final phase of a long term decline that is expected to be a repeat of the Euro’s decline between 1983 and 1985, before moving significantly higher, as shown in the latest Bitcoin model update.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 24, 2023 4:44 pm

S&P500: Extremely Large Block Trades

Between August 18, 2023 and August 21, 2023 extremely large block trades were observed crossing the tape for a select group of mega cap stocks in the S&P500. Typically, this action by itself would not be considered for comment, but it was very similar to what occurred between March 15, 2023 and March 16, 2023. Positioning of these trades indicates Market Makers are still expecting to move prices higher.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 19, 2023 3:30 pm

Dow: Actual Fibonacci Percentages

On July 27, 2023 it was noted that a brief pullback would be expected before moving higher. On August 12, 2023 change in direction calculations continued to support a move higher. The Dow charts below have been updated to reflect their actual Fibonacci percentages for 2023 and 1987. At this point there is a 7.726% difference in the Fibonacci peak of August 2023 and June 1987.

Between August 7, 2023 and August 17, 2023, numerous large block trades were observed in pre-market trading sessions. Over the last year, this type of trading activity is typically been seen at the market close. It was also taking place during a period of time when the CBOE Put/Call Ratio was moving higher, as shown in the chart below. A move higher is still expected. Note that this expectation could change quickly, just as it did during the last week of August 1987 and first week of September 1929.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 12, 2023 11:17 am

Dow: Change in Direction

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations discussed on August 6, 2023 were supported with a secondary confirmation in the daily Engrbytrade™ Dow “Change in Direction” calculation on August 8, 2023. A similar change in direction calculation result was received on October 6, 2021.

In addition to this, an observation was made during a review of intraday trading data that Market Makers appeared to be accumulating stock of large cap tech stocks between August 8, 2023 and August 11, 2023, as prices moved sideways during the week.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 6, 2023 5:51 amSeptember 5, 2023 1:31 pm

Dow: Price Action

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show price action relative to volume data on August 4, 2023 is similar to what was developed on December 1, 2021, March 3, 2022 and November 2, 2022. A move upward is expected to continue in August.

Observation: During July 2023 a steady stream of billion dollar trades crossed the tape. Hedge funds and institutions appear to be chasing tech stocks.

Traders Are Risking It All on Bets That Market Boom Will Last

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 3, 2023 5:03 amAugust 3, 2023 5:27 am

Dow: Tracking June 1987

The Dow continues to move along its 127.20% Fibonacci level shown in the chart below. A brief pullback is still expected to track with the Dow’s pullback in late June 1987 before moving higher.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

August 2, 2023 9:27 amAugust 19, 2023 2:45 pm

NASDAQ 100: Pennant Forming

While Wall Street traders vacation in the Hampton’s and Federal Reserve members confirm their reservations for the August 24 – 26 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, markets continue to move higher. The following chart illustrates the formation of a pennant in the NASDAQ 100 index.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 31, 2023 9:38 am

Dow: Mini Dow Futures Signal

Engrbytrade™ Dow daily derivative related calculations from CBOT Mini Dow futures trading data indicate a topping process is in progress. This same process occurred between October 26, 2021 and January 7, 2022 when three separate signals were provided during this time frame as shown in the 2021 – 2022 chart below. Calculations show this process is repeating with two out of three signals occurring on June 13, 2023 and July 25, 2023. A third signal is expected to occur in August 2023, but additional data will be needed to confirm this. If this does occur in August, it would align with expectations noted on July 27, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 27, 2023 4:54 pm

Dow: 127.20%

With the Dow breaching its 127.20% Fibonacci level, a brief pullback is expected before moving higher. A pullback similar to this started on June 23, 1987, as shown in the chart below.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 24, 2023 10:21 am

Silver: Declining Trend

Since 2014 Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations have shown British Pound Commercial Futures Trader expectations oscillating to the point where they eventually impact the price of silver. The peak of each oscillation in these contracts (shown with dark arrows) occurred on July 1, 2014, August 16, 2016, March 14, 2017, April 17, 2018, August 6, 2019, March 2, 2021 and most recently on July 18, 2023. After each Commercial Futures Trader oscillation peak, silver ultimately moved in the direction of a declining trend. The peak of silver’s relative value against the Pound, as measured by Engrbytrade™ Non-Commercial Trader’s expectation calculations, are shown with red arrows.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 23, 2023 5:36 amJuly 23, 2023 5:37 am

Crude Oil: Under Accumulation

Engrbytrade™ intramarket energy derivative futures trading data calculations indicate crude oil is under accumulation. Calculations also show crude oil is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on March 31, 2020. Additional data will be needed from a move similar to what occurred between April 2020 and November 2020 in order to calculate a longer term peak.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 22, 2023 6:32 am

Euro: Long term decline

On June 10, 2023, it was noted that the Euro was expected to move above 1.14 before starting a decline. Weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations from July 18, 2023 indicate the Euro moved within 1% of its peak and is currently in a structural position similar to where it was on December 9, 2020. A long term decline is expected to commence for the Euro as traders start moving into U.S. Dollars. During the Euro’s decline traders will also shift into U.S. Dollars as they move out of currencies that include the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 19, 2023 3:54 pm

Dow: October 2024 Low

As the Dow chart structure shown below continues to develop, long term Engrbytrade™ trade markers point to a low in October 2024. Whether by design, or a result of built-in programming, this 1997 – 2023 Dow structure appears to provide an indication of where this chart will ultimately end. Prior to moving lower the Dow is expected to hit 37,744 (+/-1%) by October 5, 2023 (+/-1 trading day).

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 18, 2023 10:43 am

Dow: Upper Trend Line Breakout

On July 13, 2023 it was noted that Market Makers would need to decide on a course of action within the current ascending triangle. Today, it appears they have made a decision to move higher and follow a path that is similar to what occurred in 1929, 1973, and 2020. Based on their move above the upper trend line the Dow is expected to hit 37,744 (+/-1%) by October 5, 2023 (+/-1 trading day) before a significant collapse occurs.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 17, 2023 7:01 am

US Dollar: 2023 Accumulation Continues

Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation. As of 06:56 AM EST the US Dollar held a 68% bullish rating over the last three days. It is not reflected in news reports indicating traders are planning to continue selling the Dollar. This ongoing accumulation period is expected to provide a move higher, just as it did in 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 13, 2023 12:17 pm

Dow: Infinite Liquidity

If the Dow closes above its upper trend line shown in the chart below, it provides Market Makers with an opportunity to draw in retail investors, hedge funds, pension funds, etc. using “infinite liquidity”. At this point, it is up to the Market Makers to decide what their course of action will be. History has shown the Dow would be expected to move higher for an average of 56 trading days before hitting a peak and then falling dramatically. The following dates and related trading days illustrate this.

Ascending Triangle Breakout History
June 28 – September 3, 1929 (54 trading days)
November 3, 1972 – January 11, 1973 (44 trading days)
November 1, 2019 – February 12, 2020 (69 trading days)
Average number of breakout trading days before a decline starts = 56
56 trading days covers July 13, 2023 to October 2, 2023 (200% Fibonacci rise = 37,744)

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 12, 2023 1:30 pmJuly 12, 2023 1:34 pm

Dow: Ascending Triangle 2019 vs 2023

There is a 20% chance the Dow will continue to move higher if it breaks out of the ascending triangle shown below. If this occurs it will end badly, just as it did in 2019 -2020.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

July 11, 2023 2:17 pm

Dow: Big Block Trade Chart Structures

Reviewing the Dow big block trade structures discussed on July 11, 2023 at 6:21 AM, it appears that the following 2021 and 2023 1-hour chart structures are similar. This implies Market Makers and/or embedded computer algorithms use a strategic method to distribute very large blocks of stock.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.