Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow/S&P500: 1966 – 1973

Market Makers have successfully managed to develop Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 that are similar to chart structures between 1966 and 1973. The end result is also expected to be similar to 1974. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1973 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023. Preliminary estimates indicate the end result would be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow and below 2000 for the S&P500.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Descending Triangle

The chart below is a representation of the current Dow futures chart structure with a descending triangle pattern that typically precedes a decline. If this structure continues to develop, a move up to its upper trend line is possible before dropping through the lower horizontal line and continuing with a decline described on February 22, 2023.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 2008 vs 2023 Structures

In the charts below it has been observed that structures between November 1, 2022 and February 22, 2023 appear to be similar to what was developed between July 11, 2008 and September 5, 2008. Although, this comparison alone does not confirm a decline is expected, it does provide a framework to conduct structural calculations showing an upcoming decline to 25,777. This would be a 22.2% decline.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold/Silver: Long Term Value vs Dollar

A description of what would occur over the long term with gold and silver was provided on January 15, 2023. The following charts were developed to provide nominal values with some perspective on that discussion. There are times, such as October-November 2008 and September 2022, when metal values diverge away from the U.S. Dollar’s relative value resulting in an undervalued situation for metals. As noted on January 15, 2023, the next peak in gold and silver is expected to occur between November 2024 and May 2025. During that time, an overvalued situation for the metals should occur.

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Dow: Dow Transport Review

The Dow Jones Transportation Average charts shown below provide some insight into significant trading activities prior to a decline. In the last quarter of 2021, when a large long tail candlestick appeared on November 2, 2021, it was observed that a significant number of very large block trades were crossing the tape around that period of time. This trading activity is also similar to what occurred as a steady stream of very large blocks appeared during late January 2023 and early February 2023 when a long tail candlestick appeared on February 2, 2023. In the past, smaller versions of long tail candlesticks appeared on May 19, 2008 and September 19, 2008 prior to a sharp decline in late 2008.

Based on the Dow Transport Average index timelines discussed above, S&P500 and NASDAQ descending triangles noted on February 9, 2023, very large block trades crossing the tape during periods when long tail candlesticks appear, plus “technical issues” for trades on over 200 stocks during the morning session on January 24, 2023, it appears that Market Makers are setting up a decline that could last well into 2023.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Move To 4297

The S&P500 is still on track to move above 4228 and fill its August 19-21 futures gap. On a relative scale, calculations indicate algorithms developed the January 19, 2023 to February 7, 2023 1-hour futures chart structure (with adjustments as needed) based on characteristics from the July 14, 2022 to August 10, 2022 1-hour futures chart. Using these similarities, calculations indicate a move up to 4297 (+/- 1%) is expected before making a significant move to lower levels.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Nasdaq: Key Words

As the Dow and S&P500 approach their structural peaks, the Nasdaq is also included in this group and is expected to fill a gap created in the 1-hour futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022 with a move above 13,247. Algorithms programmed with key words may trigger a sharp move upward and provide the means to fill gaps in the S&P500 and Nasdaq during, or after, Jerome Powell’s speech at 12:40 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 7, 2023. This would align with a move of 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days) after January 30, 2023 noted on February 1, 2023.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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VIX: 2007 – 2008 Structure

On November 15, 2022, daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirmed the VIX would move below 22 to a lower trend line illustrated on November 11, 2022. This move was completed in late November as the Dow and S&P500 continued to move higher while Market Makers distributed their inventory. Since that time, the VIX has moved below 18 and is expected to decline below 16.44 based on a 1-hour futures gap created on September 7, 2021 that will need to be filled. The structural design of the January 2022 to February 2023 chart shown below is very similar to that of the chart structure created between September 2007 and May 2008. The details needed to create the current 2022 to 2023 chart based on a 2007 to 2088 chart structure indicates a significant amount of planning went into this effort. Additional data will be needed to confirm the probability of a repeat performance of 2008 in 2023.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Continue Moving Higher

The response from stock markets concerning an interest rate increase of 0.25% indicates algorithms are expected to continue moving the S&P500 higher to close a 5-minute futures chart gap created on August 21, 2022. A move up above 4229 in the futures market within 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days), starting on January 30, 2023, is still expected.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Algorithms Filling Gaps

Between January 19, 2023 and January 27, 2023 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate algorithms have been positioning the Dow to set up a brief move upward prior to starting a decline. The January 19 – 27, 2023 calculations are similar to results received between December 8, 2021 to December 17, 2021 and August 4, 2022 to August 9, 2022. Prior to conducting a decline in the Dow, algorithms are expected to move the Dow higher and fill a gap that was created in the 5-minute Dow futures chart on December 14, 2022. This would move the Dow above 34,617 in the futures market before a decline would start.

Algorithms are also expected to move the S&P500 above 4229 in the futures market to fill a gap created in the 5-minute futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022.

This move up is calculated to take 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days). A move down is still expected in accordance the January 25, 2023 post.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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