The Dow 15-minute futures chart gap created on December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. EST still needs to be filled, as noted on December 29, 2022.
Dow: Short ETF Gaps
Note that there are some Dow short ETF products that contain a gap created between January 13, 2023 at 8:00 p.m and January 17, 2023 at 4:15 a.m. The potential exist for the Dow to move up to 34,300 to fill these gaps before moving lower.
Economy/Gold/Silver: Cause and Effect
Inflation: The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind – Hidden Secrets of Money Ep 4
Three economic rescue packages were signed between 1970 and 1971. What followed was a run up in silver prices until the first quarter of 1974. Three economic rescue packages were signed between 2020 and 2022. Based on history, the result will be another run up in gold and silver prices.
Cause:
Economy/Gold/Silver: Impact of Congressional Spending
Effect:
Silver prices could touch a 9-year high in 2023 — with a bigger upside than gold
Gold price backs off on rising dollar, but set for fifth weekly rise
Economy: Facing a Recession
Stock market faces collision of bullish and bearish forces, says Tom McClellan
When taxes, as a percentage of GDP, are greater than 18% a recession follows.
Nasdaq: Similar Retracement Structures
On January 19, 2023 it was observed that trading patterns in the Dow were similar within specific time frames from April 2022 and January 2023. A review of Nasdaq trades on January 20, 2023 revealed a retracement structure over the last three trading days is similar to five trading days between March 29, 2022 and April 4, 2022. The peak on March 29, 2022 occurred prior to the start of its decline going into April 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Algorithms Recalculating
Note that algorithms are recalculating the sequence of events needed to fill the gap created by the Dow and S&P500 this morning. This also includes other derivative products linked to the Dow and S&P500. When this gap is filled, the decline is expected to continue.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Double Bottom Formation
It was observed from additional data that intraday trading patterns have been similar within time frames illustrated in the chart below. Based on this, structural calculations indicate a move down to 28,733 in the futures market is possible with the development of a double bottom reversal formation before moving higher.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy/Gold/Silver: Impact of Congressional Spending
The $2 trillion Cares Act was signed on March 27, 2020. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed on March 11, 2021. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was signed on August 16, 2022. Signing three economic rescue bills within three years to provide $4.7 trillion in funding is extreme.
The last time two economic rescue bills were passed was when the $152 billion Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was signed on February 13, 2008, followed by the $831 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that went into effect on February 17, 2009. On February 17, 2009 gold futures closed at $967.50 and moved up to a high in the futures market of $1923.70 on August 5, 2011. Silver futures closed at $14.03 on February 17, 2009 and moved up to a high in the futures market of $49.56 on April 28, 2011.
A similar series of events took place between 1975 and 1977. In 1975 the $23 billion Tax Reduction Act was signed on March 29, 1975. This was followed by the Economic Stimulus Appropriations Act of 1977 that was signed on May 13, 1977. Following the approval of these two bills, gold futures hit a closing high of $909.9 on January 22, 1980 and silver futures closed at $41.50 on January 21, 1980.
The source of funding many of these bills goes back to August 15, 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window and stopped the international convertibility of U.S. Dollars to gold. On August 15, 1970 the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 was passed to stabilize prices, rents, wages, salaries, interest rates, dividends, etc. as part of a price control program. On July 12, 1971 Nixon signed the $2.25 billion Emergency Employment Act of 1971. After closing the gold window on August 15, 1971, Nixon expanded the size of the next stimulus bill by signing the $15 billion Revenue Act of 1971 on December 10, 1971. Gold futures then went from $44 on December 10, 1971 to $179.80 on April 3, 1974. Silver futures went from $1.43 on December 10, 1971 to $6.29 on February 26, 1974.
The impact of approving very large rescue plans through consecutive stimulus bills has historically been followed by significantly higher gold and silver prices within 9 to 11 calendar quarters of the last bill being approved. In this case it would be the $739 billion Inflation Reduction Act signed on August 16, 2022. Based on this timeline the next peak in gold and silver is expected to occur between November 2024 and May 2025.
US Dollar/Gold/Silver: Declining Dollar
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to continue moving lower. Similar daily calculation results noting a decline occurred on November 15, 2022. Weekly futures trading data calculations also indicate the Dollar will continue to move lower in 2023. In addition to this the effect of a declining Dollar will cause gold and silver to continue moving higher. Current intermarket futures trading data structural calculation results for gold and silver are similar to that of January 27, 2009.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: 94 Year Timeline
One hundred eighty eight years ago the S&P500 gained 32% between January 1835 and September 1835 before losing 72% of its value between October 1835 and July 1842. Ninety four years ago the S&P500 gained 29% between January 1929 and September 1929 before losing 86% of its value between September 1929 and June 1932. Both declines were followed by very long economic depressions.
Based on a 94 year timeline preliminary estimates indicate the S&P500 should gain 30% between January 2023 and September 2023 before starting a long decline and losing between 80% – 90% of its value. Additional data will be needed during 2023 to validate this thesis.
Just like 1837-1842 and 1929-1932, the next crash will be caused by congressional spending, recent government regulations, economic policies, presidential executive orders, and the misallocation of capital where everyone involved believes they can control the future.
References:
Panic of 1837
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
JACKSONIAN MONETARY POLICY, SPECIE FLOWS, AND THE PANIC OF 1837
http://www.nber.org/papers/w7528.pdf
Crisis of 1839
https://www.nber.org/papers/h0133
Sovereign Debt and Repudiation: The Emerging-Market Debt Crisis in the U.S. States, 1839-1843
https://www.nber.org/papers/w10753
History of Money and Banking in the United States: The Colonial Era to World War II
https://mises.org/library/history-money-and-banking-united-states-colonial-era-world-war-ii
The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression
https://www.nber.org/papers/w2639
The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach
https://www.nber.org/papers/w4814
Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences
https://www.nber.org/papers/w1772
Dow/S&P500: Euro Shift
As noted on January 8, 2023 calculations indicate the Euro is expected to move higher over the next 12 months. This Euro shift is also expected to affect the Dow and S&P500 with both moving higher over the next 12 months. It would fill the Dow gap noted on January 3, 2023 and both S&P500 gaps noted on January 4, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: Euro Shift
The shift in Euro futures trading data noted on January 8, 2023 will also have a long term effect on the price of Crude Oil. Current data indicates crude oil is expected to continue moving higher over the next 12 months.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Bitcoin: 12 Month Move
Intermarket futures trading data shows the Euro moving higher in 2023 while the U.S. Dollar declines. As the Dollar declines, Bitcoin is expected to move higher during the next 12 months. This move should be similar to what occurred during 2017 and April 2020 to April 2021.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Euro: Moving Higher in 2023
As of January 3, 2023 futures trading data calculations shifted and are now indicating a high probability that the Euro will continue moving higher in 2023. Expectations for this move are based on comparable calculation results from May, 19, 2020, June 13, 2017, and September 25, 2012. Other markets will be affected and additional research is needed to evaluate the impact of this change in direction.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Citadel Profits
Citadel Securities Opens Up After Record $7 Billion Windfall
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/citadel-securities-opens-up-after-record-7-billion-windfall
Crude Oil: On Track With 2008
The deflationary decline in Crude Oil is in progress, as noted on December 21, 2022. The current January 2023 Brent price structure aligns with its mid-August 2008 structure in the charts shown below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Gaps to Fill
In addition to a gap in the Dow 15-minute futures chart below 34,604 that was created on December 14, 2022, the S&P500 1-hour futures chart contains one gap below 4228 that was created on August 19, 2022 and one gap below 4071.25 created on December 14, 2022. It is expected that both of these gaps will be filled prior to markets moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1-Hour Ascending Triangle
On December 19, 2022 at 11:00 p.m. (EST), the Dow started a 1-Hour Ascending Triangle. A breakout from this triangle would take the Dow above 34,604 to fill a Dow 15-minute futures chart gap noted on December 29, 2022.
Dow: 1929 Model
On December 29, 2022 it was noted that the Dow is expected to move above 34,604 based on a gap in the Dow 15-minute futures chart. The potential does exist for the Dow to move up to 38,000 and align with the 1929 Dow Model, based on extreme moves in the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio.
Dow: December 14, 2022 Futures Gap
On December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. EST, a gap was created in the Dow 15-minute futures chart as the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the Fed Funds rate 0.50% to a target range between 4.25% and 4.5%. The current CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio chart structure, shown below, indicates the Dow will move above 34,604 to fill this gap.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dollar/Gold/Silver: Predetermined Course
On October 9, 2022, it was noted that the US Dollar had an upper trend line angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis and was similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. The chart below shows the US Dollar hit a high of 114.75 on September 28, 2022 with an upper trend line angle of 24.19°. This indicates a predetermined course was developed after 2008 using an upper trend line angle of 25.225° (+/-1.035°). Current intermarket futures trading data calculations show the US Dollar is expected to move higher, repeating a move upward similar to what occurred during the first half of 2001. As the US Dollar moves toward the upper trend line, a decline in value is expected for the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Copper, Euro, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Platinum.
During the Dollar’s initial rise in 2001, the Dow moved up into mid-February 2001 and then had a sharp decline going into the end of March 2001. Preliminary data indicates the Dow is expected to conduct a move similar to this during the first quarter of 2023.
Long term intermarket futures trading data calculations also indicate gold and silver are expected to develop a predetermined inverse chart structure of the US Dollar that is similar to the time frame between January 2001 and March 2008, as shown in the charts below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Rising Eight Point Structure
In addition to repeating structures noted on December 24, 2022, the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between November 10, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. and December 13, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. is in an ascending broadening wedge pattern similar to the NASDAQ 100 index that was developed between February 11, 2020 at 10:00 a.m. and February 19, 2020 at 7:00 p.m. Both structural chart patterns are similar to the engrbytrade rising Eight Point Trading ModelTM shown below. Since this structure is relatively rare, additional data will be needed to ensure the 2022/2023 decline continues.
Significant futures trader’s position spreading discussed on December 18, 2022 occurred five times since June 2007, as shown in the table below. Three out of four accumulation dates were followed by a decline in the market.
Since 2017, extreme peaks in the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio discussed on December 23, 2022 have had a very high correlation with market lows and were followed by a move upward.
Until the ascending broadening wedge, and futures trader’s positions can be confirmed with additional data, the assumption at this point is a move upward based on the Put/Call Ratio correlation.
Dow/S&P500: Repeating Structures
Preliminary research shows Dow and S&P 500 algorithms have been in the process of repeating their basic 1-hour futures chart structures developed between May 30, 2022 and June 17, 2022. Real time data indicates underlying derivative algorithms are moving products in a choreographed effort to develop the May – June 2022 base chart structures. This means Market Makers are expected to follow through with a decline prior to moving the markets higher. Additional work will be needed to determine the level of decline anticipated.
Dow: CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio
On December 21, the Put to Call ratio hit a record close of 2.03, as shown in the chart below. This was followed by a change in daily engrbytrade™ calculations on December 22, 2022 indicating the Dow is now in a structural position similar to where it was on July 5, 2022. The potential exists for a move up into February before turning lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P 500: David Tepper Perspective
Billionaire investor David Tepper: I’m ‘leaning short’ on stock market