Engrbytrade Posts

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S&P500: April 6 – April 13 Summary

On April 6, 2023 S&P500 calculations indicated that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This was similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021 and indicated preparations were being made for a significant decline in 2023.

On April 10, 2023 it was observed that the 1-hour futures chart developed a descending triangle. This formation appeared to be similar to what was developed between May 27, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET and June 9, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.

On April 11, 2023 S&P500 1-hour futures algorithms continued to develop a descending triangle that was initiated on March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Timeline calculations indicated the S&P500 was expected to initiate a decline out of this descending triangle by April 12, 2023 and move down to 3808 (+/- 1%) in order to complete a triple top reversal structure.

The April 12, 2023 post referred to the April 6, 2023 post noting that positioning for very large (stock) distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. As of April 11, 2023, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations indicated this activity was continuing and preparations were still underway for a significant decline in 2023.

A second April 12, 2023 post referred to the April 10, 2023 post, that noted the 1-hr S&P500 futures chart was developing a descending triangle. Timeline calculations indicated this same S&P500 1-hr futures chart was expected to drop out of its descending triangle after the NYSE close on April 12, 2023 and continue to move lower in overnight trading.

This summary concludes that the S&P500 1-hr futures chart has adapted characteristics similar to the Dow 1-hr futures chart. The S&P500 futures chart structure was initiated on March 13, 2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET. By April 12, 2023 it appeared that this same S&P500 1-hr futures chart was developing a descending triangle. On April 12, 2023 at 8:00 p.m. ET, it changed direction and started tracking upward with the Dow 1-hr futures chart. This change in direction indicates the S&P500 is expected to move up to 4236 (+/- 1%) by April 19, 2023 before moving lower.

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Dow: March 27 – April 13 Summary

On March 27, 2023, it was noted that algorithms had been developing a 1-hour chart structure that was similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

On March 29, 2023 it appeared the Dow was on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Based on its rate of speed, it was expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) (33,280 – 33,952} by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. The Dow futures price crossed the 33,616 mark on April 3, 2023, one week earlier than expected, and continued to move sideways within its 1% range.

On March 31, 2023 it was observed that the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. was similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow was expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) (33,963 – 34,649) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day). On April 12, 2023 the Dow futures moved into the lower 1% range of 34,306.

This summary concludes that the 1-hour chart is expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower.

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Dow/S&P500: April – December 1974 Update

On February 25, 2023 Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 illustrated the expectation that this year would be similar to April through December 1974. Updated estimates indicate the end result would be near 18,000 for the Dow and 2400 for the S&P500. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1974 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Decline to 3808

S&P500 1-hour futures algorithms continue to develop a descending triangle that was initiated on March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Timeline calculations indicate the S&P500 is expected to initiate a decline out of this descending triangle by April 12, 2023 and move down to 3808 (+/- 1%) in order to complete a triple top reversal structure. Preliminary calculations indicate this triple top reversal structure will setup a decline to 3364.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Positioning for Distributions

In addition to S&P500 positioning for distributions, daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between March 6, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 19, 2021 through November 11, 2021, as well as December 8, 2021 through January 6, 2021. This positioning indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Positioning for Distributions

Daily Engrbytrade™ S&P500 calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021. This positioning also indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Symmetrical Collapse Continues

The Dow briefly moved outside of its Symmetrical Collapse Structure between April 3, 2023 and April 4, 2023, as shown below. On April 4, 2023 Dow futures moved within 86 points of the lower range of the target noted on March 31, 2023. The Dow is expected to continue moving lower within this structure during 2023. On February 25, 2023 it was noted that the end result will be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow.

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Dow: 2021 Algorithms

As noted on March 29, 2023, Dow algorithms initiated a chart structure on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET to recreate a Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Since that time, machine driven algorithms include calculations for the structure developed between March 20, 2023 at 4:00 a.m. ET and March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. This is similar to what was constructed between October 6, 2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET and October 19, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Based on the March 20 – 31, 2023 structure and development rate of speed the Dow is expected to reach 34,306 (+/- 1%) by April 13, 3023 (+/- 1 trading day).

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Dow: Fast Track

Starting on March 24, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. ET Dow futures have been on a fast track to recreate the Dow 1-hour futures chart developed between May 20, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET and May 30, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. The Dow is currently in a similar position to where it was on May 25, 2022. Based on the current rate of speed, it is expected to reach 33,616 (+/- 1%) by April 10, 2023 before moving lower. This move would keep the Dow on the edge of the 2020 – 2023 Dow Symmetrical Collapse model boundary. Data will continue to be monitored for any changes.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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US Dollar: Trend Higher

Engrbytrade™ daily calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. This turn follows a similar three month pattern setup when calculations from December 23, 2021 and March 21, 2022 indicated a move up was expected. On December 27, 2022 the first signal was received. Three months later on March 28, 2023 the second signal was received. This move upward aligns with an expectation of a decline in the stock markets during 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: October 2022 vs March 2023

Since March 15, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET it appears that machine driven algorithms have been developing a 1-hour chart structure that is similar to, but not an exact replica of, the 1-hour chart structure between October 13, 2022 at 09:15 a.m. ET and October 21, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Although the current 1-hour chart trajectory is similar to October 2022, volatility in March 2023 is significantly higher. In the past It has also been observed that machine driven algorithms start developing a chart structure from a previous period, but may shift to using a chart structure from a different time period as prices move higher. Speed of travel and volatility will be monitored for updates if needed.

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Interest Rates: U.S. 10-Yr Note Yield Decline

On November 6, 2022 it was noted that weekly futures trading data calculations indicated the 10-Year note yield was peaking and in a structural position similar to where it was on November 6, 2018. The 10-Year note has slowly declined from 4.218 on November 7, 2022 to 3.373 on March 24, 2023. As of March 24, 2023 the 10Y-Yr note is in a similar position to where it was on November 16, 2018. Current weekly futures trading data calculations indicate the 10-Yr note yield is expected to conduct a decline similar to what occurred between November 2018 and September 2019. The 2022 to 2023 chart shown below provides a trend line of 18.25 degrees below the x-axis and overlays Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 2017. This indicates a steady decline below 1.5% is expected by the end of 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/Silver: Dow vs Silver 2008 – 2023

It should be noted that the collapse in 2023 is expected to be significantly worse than 2008. Bear Stearns failed in March of 2008, Indy Mac failed in July 2008 with the majority of institutions failing in September 2008. In March 2023 alone, several institutions have already failed, received a bailout, or are in the process of merging. This is an ominous sign of things to come. Few remember that during the last half of 2008 when the financial system was collapsing, institutions and traders were selling precious metals to cover their losses. The charts below show a comparison between 2008 and 2023 for the Dow and Silver.

2008

Bear Stearns – March 16, 2008
Fanny Mae – September 6, 2008
Freddy Mac – September 6, 2008
Merrill Lynch & Co. – September 14, 2008
Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008
AIG – September 16, 2008

 2023

Silvergate Capital – March 8, 2023 – shut down
Silicon Valley Bank – March 10, 2023 – bankrupt
Signature Bank – March 10, 2023 – failed
First Republic – March 17, 2023 – bailout rescue package
Credit Suisse – March 19, 2023 – Merger with UBS

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Timeline Reset

Dow 1-hour futures structural calculations indicate a very brief decline to 31,695 appears to be in progress prior to moving higher. This move resets the timeline and rate of acceleration discussed on March 21, 2023. Futures structural calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to reach 35,651 by April 18, 2023.  Engrbytrade™ daily calculations also continue to indicate the Dow will move higher based on results from March 17, 2023. The March 17th daily results are similar to previous results from December 1, 2021, December 20, 2021, and March 8, 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Rate of Rise Accelerating

Preliminary futures structural data calculations on March 20, 2023 noted a 28 day (+/- 1 trading day) rally was expected to move the Dow up to April 27, 2023. Today’s structural calculation update provides additional information showing the Dow’s rate of rise is accelerating. If this rate of rise continues at its current rate, the Dow is expected to reach 34,600 (+/- 1%) by April 6, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day) and then fall.

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