Federal Reserve Chair Powell discusses key issues in monetary policy and the economy — 5/19/23
S&P500: Broadening Top
On May 15, 2023 it was observed that a descending triangle was forming in the S&P500 1-hour chart. Since that time a broadening top formation has developed in the 1-hour chart. This formation is similar to what occurred between December 2021 and January 2022 prior to a sharp decline, as shown below.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: 2018 vs 2023 Fed Outlook
On September 26, 2018, just before the Dow and S&P500 peaked on October 3, 2018 Jerome Powell said, “The economy is strong.” This was followed by a 19% decline in the S&P500 and a 24% decline in the Dow. On May 3, 2023 Jerome Powell said “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.” Another collapse is expected.
- FOMC Press Conference – Sept. 26, 2018
- FOMC Press Conference, May 3, 2023
S&P500/Interest Rates: 2018 Decline
In addition to the May 13, 2023 near term update, the following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart indicates a significant decline in the S&P500 is expected over the coming weeks. This is similar to what occurred between September 25, 2018 and December 24, 2018, as shown in the chart below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy/S&P500: Mike Wilson May 17, 2023
Dow/S&P500: Machine Selling
Markets Are About to Be Hit With a Wave of Machine Selling Sending Stocks Crashing as Momentum Wanes
S&P500: May 13, 2023 Calculation Update
On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 3,887 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate S&P500 algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 3,872 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: May 13, 2023 Calculation Update
On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 31,465 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate Dow algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 30,808 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Distribution Time Frames
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow and S&P500 calculations continue to indicate Market Makers are still in the process of distributing large quantities of stock during the latest 2023 time frame shown below. This process is described in Richard Ney’s books when NYSE Specialists managed the order flow. During the last quarter of 2021 Market Makers conducted a similar distribution process before moving markets lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: 1973 Point 14
Based on the 1973 Model Representation update shown below, the Dow and S&P500 are still within range of Point #14. It was observed that computers initiated a series of repetitive programs during the last week of April 2023. This is similar to what occurred during the second week of February 2023. A decline is still expected.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/Dow: Decline to May 15, 2023
The declining S&P500 and Dow 1-hour futures charts are in the process of developing chart structures that are similar to 1-hour futures charts developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Based on this development, the S&P500 futures chart is expected to move down to 3887 by May 15, 2023 and the Dow futures chart is expected to move down to 31,465 by May 15, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Commercial Real Estate Disclosures
Watch Commercial Real Estate Disclosures by Banks.
Dow/S&P500: April 2022 vs April 2023
The Dow daily chart (and 1-hr futures chart) structure between March 1, 2022 and April 20, 2022 is similar to the S&P500 chart structure developed between March 6, 2023 and May 1, 2023. Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations and technical indicators show that upon completion a Dow structure this week that is similar to what was developed between March 1, 2022 and April 21, 2022, a sharp decline is expected with the Dow and S&P500 moving below 31,874 and 3,855 respectively.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Inverted Yield Curve
Charles Nenner – Inverted Yield Curve Warns of 2023 Recession
Silver: April 25, 2023 Peak
Daily Engrbytrade™ silver calculations and weekly futures trading data calculations show April 25, 2023 was a peak position and is similar to where silver was on April 19, 2011 and August 6, 2020.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: April 27, 2023 Retracement
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and 85% of technical indicators indicate the chart structure between April 14, 2023 and April 27, 2023 is similar to the chart structure between November 8, 2021 and November 16, 2021 with a 73.6% retracement. A decline is expected to continue.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1974 Model Page Update
The 1974 Dow Model Page has been updated with the following charts. A comparison of the 1973 and 2022 – 2023 charts illustrates how Market Makers are currently using algorithms designed to repeat a decline similar to 1973. This decline will continue and ultimately lead to a repeat of a 1974 style decline in 2024.
Economy: Layoffs Will Continue
Meta
Medtronic, Best Buy
Amazon, Google, Microsoft
Economy: Global Project
A series of documented global project events were initiated between 2020 and 2023 that will require reimbursement beyond $12.5 trillion to financiers in the form of a market collapse that is expected to occur in 2023.
Project Scope:
Initiate public/private partnerships necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences. Monitor the effects of a coronavirus passing to humans with “no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year”. (Derived from Event 201)
Project Schedule:
This project schedule was initiated on January 1, 2020 when Xinhua News reported the Huanan Seafood Market was closed on 1 January 2020 for cleaning and disinfection. This project will be complete when the Public Health Emergency expires on May 11, 2023.
Project Cost:
IMF sees pandemic cost rising beyond $12.5 trillion estimate by 2024.
Payment must be made with a market collapse in 2023.
Engrbytrade™ calculations to date support the expectation of a decline in 2023.
Interest Rates: 2023 30-Yr vs 2018 10-Yr
Weekly Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate a situation exists where futures traders are creating a 30-Yr yield descending triangle that is similar to the 2018 10-yr yield descending triangle shown below. A brief move upward in the 10-Yr and 30-Yr yield is expected. This will be followed by a decline during the remainder of 2023 as stock markets move lower.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Continuing Jobless Claims
Dow: Change in Direction II
On April 18, 2023 it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculations (from April 17, 2023) indicated a change in direction was imminent. A second daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures change in direction signal occurred on April 18, 2023. The last time two signals occurred in two days was on October 10 – 11, 2022. This was followed by a 34 trading day rise. The two signals from April 17 – 18, 2023 indicate a sharp decline is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: April 18, 2023
In the March 27 – April 13 Dow Summary post it was noted that the 1-hour chart was expected to continue moving higher, ultimately reaching 34,387 (+/-1%) by April 18, 2023 before moving lower. On April 18, 2023 at 06:45 a.m. the Dow futures chart hit a high of 34,279, well within the 1% range and just 108 points from the target of 34,387. It is still possible for the Dow to briefly move up and touch 34,279 this week before declining.
S&P500: 4236 1% Range
On April 18, 2023 at 06:30 a.m. the S&P500 futures chart moved into the 1% range of 4236, as noted on April 13, 2023.
Dow: Change in Direction
Daily Engrbytrade™ E-Mini Dow futures calculation results indicate a change in direction is imminent. This signal is similar to the change in direction calculation results from February 1, 2023. Technical analysts should note that the following indicators for the Dow are peaking: CCI, Stochastic %D, Williams %R, MFI, and RSI.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
