Structural and intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to have similar results between the July 15, 2008 to September 22, 2008 Dow structure and the June 18, 2021 to September 28, 2021 Dow structure. This, along with strategic positioning of major currencies discussed in the September 25, 2021 post indicates a significant decline in the Dow is expected during the next 13 trading days (+/- 1 trading day). This decline will have a negative impact on various financial instruments and commodities.
Dow: Entered Target Range
On September 27, 2021 the Dow entered its 1% target range (with a high of 35061.12) as noted on September 20, 2021. There is a 60% chance the Dow will reach 35,359 by October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: Daily Gap Filled
The gap between the Dow September 17, 2021 close and September 18, 2021 open was filled today. This confirms a move upward is expected to continue into October 2021, as noted on September 20, 2021.
Dow: Algorithm Update
With the sharp decline today, updates to short term algorithm calculations indicate a move up to 35,359 (+/-1%) by October 13, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Breaking Down
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
To put the Dow’s position in perspective, it has dropped out of the rising wedge that was developed during 2021. Based on short term algorithm calculations the Dow is expected to move back up to the lower trend line before starting a meaningful decline. A leading indicator for the Dow is the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A decline in the Transportation average did start early during 1998 and 2007 prior to the Dow falling. It appears a steady decline in the Transportation average has started with the Dow not far behind
Dow: Extended Duration
Yesterday’s 292 point decline provided an update to short term algorithm calculations that included an extended duration with a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 by October 6, 2021.
Dow: Repeating Algorithms
Monitoring of short term algorithm calculations indicates a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 in the futures market by Sept 20, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). Essentially a repeat of the structure developed between August 19, 2021 and August 25, 2021.
Dow: Decline Scenarios
Based on futures trading data calculations, exchange insiders are developing two distinct scenarios for a decline.
1. A Dow structure similar to the October – December decline in 2018.
2. A Dow structure similar to the August – October decline in 2008.
As of today, there is a 52% chance the upcoming decline will be similar to the August – October 2008 crash. What is very clear is that the U.S. Dollar will be an important part of this decline. A significant shift from global currencies and stocks into the U.S. Dollar will take place.
Dow: Year End Decline
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate plans are progressing for the Dow to peak after September 16, 2021 and start a decline during the last quarter of 2021. This move is expected to be similar to October –December 2018 with the US Dollar moving higher during this period. Upon completion of this decline, the Dow is expected to move on to higher levels following the engrbytrade perspective.
Silver: Two Part Move
Intermarket trading data calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. The first part is expected to move silver down to 19.28 before the end of 2021. Following the decline in 2021, a second move down to 16.35 is expected to start during the first quarter of 2022. It should be noted that over the long term, calculations have shown silver is expected to produce a similar parabolic structure as the move between November 2001 and April 2011. The current long term structure started in September 2018.
Dow: Moving Higher
The Dow’s 15 minute futures chart structure between August 23, 2021 and August 27, 2021 appears to be giving Wall Street what they want. The right-angled and descending broadening formation will provide a pathway for the Dow to move higher.
Crude Oil: Sharp Decline
On August 7, 2021 it was noted that Crude oil (WTI) appeared to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. An abrupt change within in the intermarket futures structural data this week indicates a sharp decline is expected during the next two months.
Dow: Fed Warning
A warning from Fed President Robert Kaplan indicates a peak in the Dow could come much sooner than expected. Underlying futures trading data calculations indicate positions in the US Dollar are now in alignment with calculations from August 11, 2008 when the Dow hit its peak prior to moving lower.
Crude Oil: Replicating 2018
Crude oil (WTI) appears to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. Based on futures trading data calculations the position of Crude Oil on Friday, August 6, 2021 would be a nominal equivalent to Crude Oil on August 13, 2018. This structure indicates a peak of 78.17 (+/- 2%) is expected by October 1, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). A sharp decline in Crude Oil is also expected during the last quarter of 2021.
Dow: Ascending Triangle
Based on a start date and time of July 26, 2021 at 4:15 a.m. the Dow appears to be forming an ascending triangle within a 15 minute futures chart. This structure would support a move to higher levels in August 2021.
US Dollar: 2021 Move Upward
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
The US Dollar chart structure developed between June 2007 and July 2008 is similar to the chart structure developed between June 2020 and July 2021. Results from futures trading data calculations for the US Dollar are in alignment with calculations from August 2008, indicating a rise in the US Dollar is expected during the remainder of 2021. This rise in the US Dollar would be similar to the move upward between August 2008 and December 2008. A rise in the US Dollar is also in alignment with an expected decline in the Dow later this year.
Dow: Move to 38,000
On July 28, 2021 the Federal Reserve issued a policy directive to complete a 1993 to 2021 Dow structure. The Dow is expected to move to 38,000 (+/- 1%) in August 2021. Following this move, the Federal Reserve should make a decision to raise margin rates during their Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 26-28, 2021. Retail traders will be fully invested as institutional traders complete their liquidation of equities. A significant decline is planned for the last quarter of 2021.
Bitcoin: Trend Lower
Intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to indicate Bitcoin will trend lower during the remainder of 2021. As of July 23, 2021 trading data indicates Bitcoin is in a similar structural position relative to July 16, 2018.
Gold: 2008 Chart Structure
Gold vs. dollar structural data calculations indicate gold is repeating the March 2008 to November 2008 chart structure on a much longer time frame during 2020 and 2021. The current structure started on August 7, 2020 with a high of 2075.11. As of July 23, 2021 gold reflects a similar structural position to where it was on July 28, 2008. This was just prior to the stock market collapse in 2008. Gold is expected to be extremely volatile during the last half of 2021 as it moves lower between July 2021 and November 2021. A price level of 1435 is expected by November 2021 before moving higher.
Silver: Downward Trend
A downward trend remains intact for silver as the U.S. Dollar continues to move up while the British Pound moves lower this year. Silver is expected to reach 21.00 by the end of November 2021.
Crude Oil: Observation
It was apparent yesterday that Designated Market Makers are expecting Crude Oil to move higher.
Euro: Repeat of 2008
The Euro chart structure developed between July 27, 2020 and July 12, 2021 is similar to the Euro structure developed between March 6, 2008 and August 5, 2008. Intermarket Futures trading data calculations relative to the U.S. Dollar indicates a decline in the Euro is expected during the remainder of 2021 that would be similar to the decline conducted from August 5, 2008 and November 30, 2008.
Dow: Trend Continues
Dow Futures Trading data and structural research related to the July 4, 2021 post continues to indicate a trend of moving to higher levels that align with the Dow. This is expected to occur between July and September 2021 while the NASDAQ and SP500 trend higher.
Dow: 1913 to 1929 Model
Structural research indicates the Federal Reserve started developing a stock market model in 1913 that ultimately drove prices higher going into September 1929 before collapsing the markets. Comparing data structures covering the last 28 years this same model has taken shape on a scale that is 100 times larger than the 1913 to 1929 model. As of July 2, 2021 a closing price of 34,786 in the current model would be within 1% of a relative position of 344.7 in the Dow structure on July 25, 1929. Assuming the Federal Reserve continues to support this model, the Dow would be expected to reach 38,120 (+/- 1%) by September 2021 before collapsing. Research also indicates key areas of Dow Futures Trading data show a trend shift that would support a scenario for a final move to higher levels between July and September 2021.
Crude Oil: Preliminary Timeline
Current structure calculations and preliminary measurements indicate Crude Oil (WTI) is expected to continue moving higher during the next quarter. A preliminary timeline shows WTI peaking in late September 2021 with a price target of 95.39 before moving significantly lower in 2022 – 2023.