Intermarket structural analysis research
On August 10, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated traders expect silver to move significantly higher, just as it did in 2010. On August 12, 2024 daily Engrbytrade™ silver derivative calculations provided an upward direction confirmation of futures trader expectations. The following chart indicates silver is on a path that is similar to what occurred in 2010.
Calculations from January 16, 2024 through August 9, 2024 are similar to January 5, 2010 through September 14, 2010. Based on results that are similar to 2010, traders still expect silver to move significantly higher.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 20, 2024 an exponential shift occurred when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This short position move was much larger than what occurred in 2007. After the July 2007 record of net short positions, stock markets started moving lower in October 2007.
On July 30, 2024 Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net long positions on July 23, 2024. This was well above the July 2007 record that occurred prior to the Dow and S&P500 peak in October2007.
In the chart below Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders repeated a 105 day performance of what occurred between May 29, 2018 and September 11, 2018. After Swiss Franc traders changed direction in September 2018, stock markets started a decline in October 2018. This lasted until late December 2018.
It appears various currency futures traders are positioning for a stock market peak in late September or early October 2024. This would be followed by a substantial decline going into 2025.
On August 5, 2024 Market Makers were in the process of accumulating inventory as the Fear and Greed Index moved to a low of 18. The Dow is expected to move higher using a chart structure similar to December 2021. A 2024 preliminary Fibonacci retracement structure has been applied as a guide for this move upward. If this move continues as expected, it will be volatile and lead to a projected peak of 42,062.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Today, Market Makers moved the Dow to a low of 38, 499 with an opportunity to accumulate additional stock (inventory). This move fell within a few points of the 8.92 degree trend line shown in the chart below. Based on CNN’s Fear and Greed Index moving to a low of 18 today, Market Maker priorities could shift quickly and expedite a move to the upside. This would be similar to the Fear Index reading of 18 (+/-1) on September 29, 2022, March 15, 2023, and October 3, 2023.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 25, 2024 it was noted that bond traders were preparing for a stock market decline. It also appeared the Federal Reserve was following an interest rate path similar to 2007. The charts below indicate the current 10-Yr Note rate is still on a July 2007 trajectory. The August 2, 2024 10-Yr Note rate decline aligns with the decline on July 26, 2007. This places the current Dow and S&P500 in a position that is similar to where they were late July 2007.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 19, 2023 the Dow appeared to follow its 2021 structure time frame. The August 1, 2024 change in direction confirms this. If Market Makers and algorithms continue to move markets as they did in 2021, a decline to the 8.92 degree support line is expected. This would be followed by a move upward going into the election.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On April 27, 2024 it was noted that IBM structural calculation results of 2017 – 2024 were similar to 1986 – 1987. It appears IBM is still tracking 1987 and could reach the 37.18 degree upper trend line in August 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 20, 2024 it was noted that an exponential shift occurred when Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. That record level was broken last week by Commercial and Non-Commercial Futures Traders (Net Long-Short shown below).
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As noted on July 26, 2024, structure is important. Prior to the current decline Market Makers pushed prices higher on July 17, 2024 using their standard practice of distributing extremely large blocks at the close. Algorithms continue to move the Dow down to its 8.92 degree trend line shown below before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
During the last half of May 2024 algorithms followed a pattern shown in the first chart that could be identified as an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM . The second chart provides a template for this model. It should be noted that this structure is important and appears to have started once again in the third chart. This will provide the timing needed to replicate its 2021 structure time frame.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 1, 2024 it was noted that bond traders were preparing for a stock market decline. It still appears that a stock market decline is expected based on the following.
It looks like the Federal Reserve is following a path similar to 2007. On Friday, August 17, 2007, the Federal Reserve dropped the discount rate one half of a percentage point due to concerns about the subprime lending crisis. A FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 30-31, 2024 with no rate cut expected. A drop in the discount rate in August due to a “lending crisis” would provide a path for a significant market decline in 2025.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Market Makers and algorithms are consistent with their trading patterns. This can be illustrated in the following charts. An angle of 25.94 degrees provides clarity to their plans for this year with an October 2024 peak that is expected to follow the basic pattern of 2007. Extremely large block trades indicate Market Makers are also accumulating interest rate derivatives. This includes products such as TLT in preparation for a steady decline of interest rates going into 2025.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
An exponential shift occurred this week when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This is much larger than what occurred in 2007. It indicates Futures Traders are expecting a repeat performance of 2008 with a significant decline in 2025. As noted on July 19, 2024, a turn upward from the 8.92 degree trend line would lead to a peak in September – October 2024.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following charts show the Dow appears to be following its 2021 structure time frame. Another turn upward from the 8.92 degree trend line will confirm this market structure was created for a predetermined time frame. Using the current time frame a peak in September – October 2024 would be expected.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 17, 2024 Market Makers pushed prices higher using their standard practice of distributing stock at the close. It appears they are moving lower using a broadening formation in order to fill one gap created in the extended hours on July 8, 2024 at 4:10 AM. This will provide an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving higher. This is only one example of a coordinated effort using a multitude of trades each day.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 12, 2020 it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. In Extended Hours trading this morning a sharp rise in Intel occurred as Market Makers pushed prices higher. Their accumulation of inventory between April 30th and July 10th was coordinated with the current rise in markets.
This is only educational material. Not financial advice.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Veteran Wall Street Trader Reveals Strategies Used At Stock Exchanges
Richie Naso points out that algorithms and Market Makers control the market.
This is only for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
The Dow 2003 – 2024 monthly chart structure continues to follow the Dow 1918 – 1929 monthly chart structure, as shown below. Based on these structures it indicates the Dow still has room to move higher and pass the 461.80% Fibonacci level. This would certainly take sentiment to a level we have not seen for some time.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of July 9, 2024, Engrbytrade™ futures data calculations show silver total reportable positions are similar to the data recorded on August 24, 2010. Silver is expected to continue moving higher as is did in late 2010 and early 2011.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on the current NAAIM exposure index and CNN Fear and Greed Index, investor sentiment is not in an extreme position. Estimates indicate the Dow is currently in a position that is similar to where it was in October 2021. The charts below have been updated to reflect this. This means there is room to move higher, as noted on July 11, 2024.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following is a textbook example of what Richard Ney described in his book, Making it in the Market. TLT Market Makers were selling on light volume as they moved through a descending triangle, followed by a decline in 2023. Extremely large block trades started to appear in mid-November 2023 and still continue to occur. This is the current accumulation process where Market Makers are buying their wholesale inventory at the lows. When that is complete they will raise the price in order to sell at a higher retail price level.
“It is only when they (Market Makers formerly known as Specialists) are able to decline on light volume that they can afford to carry the decline to lower prices.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
“To understand the specialists’ practices, the investor must learn to think of specialists as merchants who want to sell an inventory of stock at retail price levels.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 85
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Between October 2022 and June 2023 very large Intel block trades crossed the tape approximately every other month. This was followed by a steady move up into the end of 2023 before falling in 2024. Over the last two and one-half months it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace. Typically this would be an accumulation process by Market Makers. But, with the Warren Buffet stock market indicator hitting an all-time high, as it did at the beginning of 2000, it is not clear what Market Maker’s intend to do.
Note that this information is for research purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Since June 2022 the NAAIM exposure index has been moving upward on an 18.32 degree trend line. Based on this trend it appears, at the moment, there is room for markets to move higher.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold is currently in a position that is similar to where it was in the second quarter of 2022. A pullback is expected in 2024 prior to moving higher. This pattern is also similar to that of the late 1970s.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
