Engrbytrade Posts

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VIX: Retail Traders

The following charts show the VIX is developing a pattern similar to 2007, 2011, and 2020. A review of trades in VIX ETFs revealed very few big blocks along with a large number of small trades. Retail investors are increasing their activity while hedge funds are selling. If retail investors continue on this path a sharp decline in the markets during the first quarter of 2026 would be expected.

CNBC – November 13, 2025
“Hedge funds are still dumping stocks while retail investors keep the bull market alive”

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – December 17 2025

As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.

Key data points include the following.

December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38

February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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NASDAQ/VIX: 2011 Algorithmic Model

On December 11, 2025 it was noted that the VIX was continuing to follow its 2011 pattern. Along with this, research indicates the NASDAQ is also following its 2011 pattern using a 2.77 degree declining support line. Whatever Market Makers are preparing, it appears they are using 2011 as their algorithmic model.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow: DJIAx5 Non Reportable – Short All

One Dow futures Non Reportable category covers what are more commonly referred to as “small speculators”. This group is below the reporting level specified by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Due to the Government shutdown, data reports have been delayed with the latest update covering November 18, 2025. The following chart illustrates the number of short positions held by small speculators. They are currently in a position that is similar to December 31, 2024, prior to the Dow’s decline in February 2025. Based on the following data, when this group of traders holds a significant number of short positions, the Dow has a tendency to move higher. When they hold relatively few short positions, the Dow trends lower. The upcoming expected change should provide additional data for this observation.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of http://StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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VIX: July 2011 Lows

The VIX continues to follow its 2011 structure. Note that the VIX hit a low of 15.12 on July 1, 2011. Watch for news from the financial media on topics ranging from disappointing earnings, slow growth, etc. As soon as markets start to turn the media will provide a long list of reasons.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – December 10 2025

As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.

Key data points include the following.

December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89

February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dollar: Futures Trading Data

From October 1, 2025 to November 12, 2025 the U.S. Government shutdown delayed the availability of Commitment of Trader Reports. As of Friday December 5, 2025, data was available up to October 28, 2025. Calculations using select currencies and commodities indicates the US Dollar is on a path that will be similar to 2006 and 2007. Based on the following results it appears the US Dollar will decline in 2026.

Select currencies and commodities vs US Dollar calculations show the following dates that align with October 28, 2025

British Pound – 12/12/06
Canadian dollar – 5/8/07
Copper – 12/12/06
S&P500 – 12/26/06
Silver – 6/20/06
US Dollar – 12/19/06

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – December 3 2025

As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.

December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59

November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow: 2025 Engrbytrade Markers

The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: TLT vs S&P500

Up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. During this process TLT followed its 2010 – 2011 chart structure. Another stock market structure appeared recently in the S&P500 during October and November 2025. This is similar to the February to June 2011 S&P500 chart peak structure. In 2011 the S&P500 structure formed prior to an announcement of a U.S Credit Downgrade on August 5, 2011. It resulted in a sharp decline in the stock markets as interest rates dropped quickly.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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S&P500: April 2024

The current S&P500 trading pattern is in a process of developing structures similar to the beginning of April 2024. The large engulfing candle on Thursday, November 20, 2025 followed by a rally is similar to April 4 – 5, 2024. In addition to this the 5-Day Moving Average Equity Put/Call Ratio continues to move higher, as it did in April 2024. What remains to be seen is how far Options and Equity Market Makers push this decline in order to accumulate the inventory they need.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 19 2025

As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear &Greed = 12

For a second day in a row, the Fear & Greed Index closed below 20. It was observed that the index dropped to a trading range of 8 during the day. This has not happened since the decline going into April 3, 2025 when the index hit 9 at the close.

The 5-day average put/call ratio hit 0.73. This is the same as February 25, 2025. If the ratio moves above 0.78, a move to 0.90 would be expected. This will take some time for algorithms to move investors out of a large number of call positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

5-day average put/call ratio as of the close on November 18, 2025 = 0.73

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VIX: June 2011

On November 13, 2025 the VIX was in the process of moving toward a structure that was similar to May 2011. After hitting 25, it appears the current chart aligns with June 2011. Using 2011, a quick rally followed by a decline in the markets would be expected. Market adjustments will made based on economic data provided to the Government.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear & Greed = 14

On November 14, 2025 it was noted that a reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. On November 7, 2025 the index hit a market close reading of 20. Today the index closed at 14. A confirmation of the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio above 0.90 will be needed.

Note:
On August 8, 2024 and April 4, 2025 the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio moved above 0.90 to confirm a turning point in the markets. Be aware that financial media outlets will step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.

Previous turning point confirmation dates.

September 28, 2022 = 17
September 29, 2022 = 14

March 13, 2023 = 20
March 15, 2023 = 19

October 3, 2023 = 17
October 4, 2023 = 19

August 5, 2024 = 16
August 7, 2024 = 20

February 24, 2025 = 20
February 27, 2025 = 18

November 7, 2025 = 20
November 17, 2025 = 14

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer: https://engrbytrade.com/disclaimer/

 

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear and Greed Index

A reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. As this turning point unfolds the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio should read 0.90 or higher at the close.
This is the time when financial media outlets step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.
 
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
 
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VIX: May 2011

On October 29, 2025 VIX charts were in the process of providing an early warning signal for future volatility. Initial readings indicated the VIX was similar to its 2020 structure. At this point the November 2025 readings indicate the VIX is moving toward a structure that is similar to May 2011. A decline in the markets is expected as adjustments are made due lack of economic data related to the Government shutdown.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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S&P500: Consumer Staples

During the first week of November 2025 the S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index dropped below 17.5. This also occurred in December 2018, March 2020, and October 2023. What followed the previous 17.5 readings was a notable rise in the XLP index. As the Bullish Percent index rose above 85, the first two XLP moves peaked and started to move lower. It appears the third move has not reached an over valued level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 5 2025

As of November 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 90.06. Investment managers are bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.

Based on data shown below the Exposure Index is also in a position that is similar to where it was on August 3, 2016. Following its August 3, 2016 reading the S&P500 declined 3.63% going into November 4, 2016. This was followed by a move up to January 2018. A decline is still expected, but the percentage and duration are unknown at this point.

November 5, 2025
S&P500 – 6796.29
Mean / Average = 90.06
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.86

August 3, 2016
S&P500 -August 3, 2016 – 2163.79
SP&500 – November 4 2016 – 2085.18
3.63% decline
Mean / Average = 93.05
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.90

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ100: NYSE Financial Index

On October 13, 2025 S&P500 charts illustrated a significant divergence between price and relative strength. Today this is true for the New York Financial Index, as shown below. The 2025 Financial Index divergence appears to be a repeat of 2021. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currently have a similar divergence.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 29 2025

As of October 29, 2025 Investment Managers are bullish with the index moving up to 100.83. The index continues to follow a pattern similar to what was developed between mid-June 2021 and August 2021. While markets move higher, the latest NYSE weekly Hindenburg Omen reading indicates a sharp decline is expected in the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer