Engrbytrade Posts

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S&P500/Dow/NASDAQ: AAPL Block Trade Review

This block trade review found two AAPL trades of more than $1.6 billion occurred on December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021 before markets started their decline in 2022. Two more AAPL trades of more than $1.7 billion occurred on June 11, 2024 and June 20, 2024. It is an indication that Market Makers are expecting another decline in 2024.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/NASDAQ: NVIDIA Short Sale Trade Marker

On June 10, 2024 NVIDIA traded with a price of $195.95. This trade was treated as an anomaly and has been hidden from view by most data suppliers. What should be noted is that it was a short sale trade marker for exchange insiders. It is the inverse of what has occurred many times in the past for companies such as ADP on May 6, 2010 when a low of 17.528 crossed the tape. Since that time ADP moved to a closing price of 235.56 on July 5, 2024.

Note that charts are for research purposes only and not a recommendation.

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Interest Rates: Bond Traders are Preparing

On May 4, 2024 it was noted that a 61.35 degree angle reappeared between June 2022 and October 2023. This is similar to what was developed between February and November 2018 prior to the S&P500 decline in late 2018. It also aligns with what was developed between November 2005 and June 2007 prior to the collapse in 2007. It appears bond traders are preparing for a stock market decline.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Time Extension Calculation

On June 20, 2024 a comparison between the S&P500 1961 to 1969 and 2020 to 2024 charts was conducted. This provided a general outline of similarities in the structures relative to price movements. Big block distribution patterns identified on June 26, 2024 provided a base for Fibonacci time extension calculation points. At this point June 27, 2026 is a match for December 6, 1968, as shown in the charts below.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Big Block Distribution Pattern

In 2021 a big block distribution pattern was observed between November and the first half of December. This occurred inside of a rising wedge prior to moving lower in 2022. Since March 2024 a significantly larger big block distribution pattern has progressed through a rising wedge shown below. This is an indication that Market Makers are expecting a much larger decline in 2024. Patterns indicate Market Maker inventory is being distributed with seven figure big blocks going to institutions, such as pension funds, corporations (buybacks), large hedge funds, etc.

“It is typical of the specialist’s (Market Maker’s) modus operandi, however, that, regardless of the trend then under way, specialist merchandising strategies will adapt themselves to exploit the profit potentials of bullish or bearish announcements.“
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 103

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Silver: BRICS Development Bank

On August 15, 1971 Richard Nixon announced the suspension of converting dollars into gold or other reserve assets. This event was followed by silver prices moving higher between 1971 and 1974.

On June 6, 1974 the Saudi Petrodollar Memorandum of Conversation was issued. This initiated the process of Saudi Arabia investing proceeds of oil sales into U.S. Treasury’s. It also provided the U.S with a global reserve currency. The price of silver continued to rise as Economic Recovery and Bailout Packages continued to grow exponentially.

Forty years later a select group of countries signed the BRICS Development Bank Treaty in July, 2014. This bank will simplify settlement and lending among BRICS countries and reduce the dependence on U.S. Dollars and Euros for trade. It will also start a long term trend of Dollars moving back to the U.S. as countries around the world conduct trade with their own currencies. The price of silver is expected to move higher over the long term as this process continues.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Algorithmic Trading

On June 15, 2024, it was noted that the Dow was moving in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. A closer look at this pattern shows algorithmic trading continues in a predetermined structure similar to 2021. It also aligns with the S&P500 Fibonacci 1.618 range discussed on June 20, 2024. A move into the 40,200 range is expected before moving lower.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Fibonacci 1.618 Range

A review was done on the S&P500 1961 to 1969 and 2020 to 2024 charts based on a brief comparison of their structures. It appears there are general similarities in the structures relative to price movements. What is notable are the Fibonacci structure similarities related to the 1966 and 2022 declines. After the 1966 decline the S&P500 moved up to the 161.8 level in 1968. A similar move appears to be in progress following the 2022 decline. Based on current structures this would result in a move up to the Fibonacci 1.618 range of 5648 before moving lower.

The following is a comparison of data between 1961-1968 and 2020-2024.

1961 – 1968

  1. December 12, 1961 – June 25, 1962 = 29.30% decline
  2. June 25, 1962 – February 9, 1966 = 84.45% rise
  3. February 9, 1966 – October 10, 1966 = 23.69% decline
  4. October 10, 1966 – September 25, 1967 = 36.01% rise
  5. September 25, 1967 – February 13, 1968 = 11.77% decline
  6. February 13, 1968 – December 2, 1968 = 26.10% rise

2020 – 2024

  1. February 19, 2020 – March 23, 2020 = 35.41% decline
  2. March 23, 2020 – January 4, 2022 = 119.84% rise
  3. January 4, 2022 – October 13, 2022 = 27.53% decline
  4. October 13, 2022 – July 27, 2023 = 31.94% rise
  5. July 7, 2023 – October 27, 2023 = 10.92% decline
  6. October 27, 2023 – March 28, 2024 = 28.29% rise

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Turning Points

On June 13, 2024 it was noted that the Dow continues to move in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. To put this into context, the first Dow chart (2024) includes turning points that align with the second chart (2021). The last chart identifies time frames where very large block trades occurred.  Note that very large block trading does not necessarily equate to high volume trading days.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Gold: Signal Dates

On June 2, 2024, it was noted that structural calculations revealed gold was in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. In addition to this, a review of separate volume related interface calculations indicate a move upward is still expected. Signal dates from this review include March 31, 2020, September 16, 2021, April 22, 2024, and June 7, 2024.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Interest Rates: Daily Trading Volume

The first chart shows abnormally high daily trading volume. This, along with very large block trades continuing to cross the tape, indicates accumulation by Market Makers, hedge funds, etc. In the second chart, history has shown that similar events took place prior to a major stock market decline, such as 2007 – 2008.

Charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.

“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow: First Week of May

Algorithms appear to be repeating the first week of May 2024. Between May 29, 2024 and June 5, 2024, a series of seven figure block trades crossed the tape at the close. This is very similar to what occurred during the last two weeks of April 2024. It is also similar to what occurred in the futures market between December 1, 2021 and December 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to continue moving higher, as it did in May 2024 until Market Makers start to move very large block trades again.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Trend Upward

On May 26, 2024 it was noted that gold’s relative value against the U.S. Dollar was in a position similar to where it was on May 4, 2010. In addition to this, daily Engrbytrade™ structural calculations show gold is in a position similar to where it was on March 11, 2020. A pullback is possible, but the trend upward is expected to remain intact in 2024.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Brief Move Upward

The move on Friday, May 31, 2024 was a culmination of the following factors:

  • 7 figure block trades crossing the tape on 5/29, 5/30/, and 5/31/2024
  • The Fear and Greed Index being in a position similar to where it was on January 19, 2023.
  • No Dow or S&P500 futures gaps in their 5-min charts above the close on 5/31/24
  • One small gap remains in the NASDAQ futures 5-min chart on 5/28/24 above 18,942.

A brief move upward is expected before a decline is initiated.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Block Trades

The Dow changed direction three times between March 2024 and May 2024, as shown below. Groups of very large, seven figure block trades were observed during each change in direction. In the sample group of block trades under observation, two large cap tech stocks stood out. Since this sample group was relatively small, there may be other companies that fit this profile. Additional work will be needed to reveal any consistent patterns.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Transportation Index Lag

The Dow Jones Transportation Index typically moves with the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. There have been periods in the past when the Transportation Index lagged behind other indices, ultimately resulting in a decline of major stock indices. The most recent lag period occurred between October 2019 and January 2020 prior to a significant decline going into March 2020. The charts below currently show a significant Transportation Index lag relative to the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. A decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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