Engrbytrade Posts

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: TLT vs S&P500

Up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. During this process TLT followed its 2010 – 2011 chart structure. Another stock market structure appeared recently in the S&P500 during October and November 2025. This is similar to the February to June 2011 S&P500 chart peak structure. In 2011 the S&P500 structure formed prior to an announcement of a U.S Credit Downgrade on August 5, 2011. It resulted in a sharp decline in the stock markets as interest rates dropped quickly.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: April 2024

The current S&P500 trading pattern is in a process of developing structures similar to the beginning of April 2024. The large engulfing candle on Thursday, November 20, 2025 followed by a rally is similar to April 4 – 5, 2024. In addition to this the 5-Day Moving Average Equity Put/Call Ratio continues to move higher, as it did in April 2024. What remains to be seen is how far Options and Equity Market Makers push this decline in order to accumulate the inventory they need.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 19 2025

As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear &Greed = 12

For a second day in a row, the Fear & Greed Index closed below 20. It was observed that the index dropped to a trading range of 8 during the day. This has not happened since the decline going into April 3, 2025 when the index hit 9 at the close.

The 5-day average put/call ratio hit 0.73. This is the same as February 25, 2025. If the ratio moves above 0.78, a move to 0.90 would be expected. This will take some time for algorithms to move investors out of a large number of call positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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5-day average put/call ratio as of the close on November 18, 2025 = 0.73

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VIX: June 2011

On November 13, 2025 the VIX was in the process of moving toward a structure that was similar to May 2011. After hitting 25, it appears the current chart aligns with June 2011. Using 2011, a quick rally followed by a decline in the markets would be expected. Market adjustments will made based on economic data provided to the Government.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear & Greed = 14

On November 14, 2025 it was noted that a reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. On November 7, 2025 the index hit a market close reading of 20. Today the index closed at 14. A confirmation of the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio above 0.90 will be needed.

Note:
On August 8, 2024 and April 4, 2025 the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio moved above 0.90 to confirm a turning point in the markets. Be aware that financial media outlets will step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.

Previous turning point confirmation dates.

September 28, 2022 = 17
September 29, 2022 = 14

March 13, 2023 = 20
March 15, 2023 = 19

October 3, 2023 = 17
October 4, 2023 = 19

August 5, 2024 = 16
August 7, 2024 = 20

February 24, 2025 = 20
February 27, 2025 = 18

November 7, 2025 = 20
November 17, 2025 = 14

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer: https://engrbytrade.com/disclaimer/

 

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Fear and Greed Index

A reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. As this turning point unfolds the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio should read 0.90 or higher at the close.
This is the time when financial media outlets step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.
 
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
 
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VIX: May 2011

On October 29, 2025 VIX charts were in the process of providing an early warning signal for future volatility. Initial readings indicated the VIX was similar to its 2020 structure. At this point the November 2025 readings indicate the VIX is moving toward a structure that is similar to May 2011. A decline in the markets is expected as adjustments are made due lack of economic data related to the Government shutdown.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Consumer Staples

During the first week of November 2025 the S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index dropped below 17.5. This also occurred in December 2018, March 2020, and October 2023. What followed the previous 17.5 readings was a notable rise in the XLP index. As the Bullish Percent index rose above 85, the first two XLP moves peaked and started to move lower. It appears the third move has not reached an over valued level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 5 2025

As of November 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 90.06. Investment managers are bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.

Based on data shown below the Exposure Index is also in a position that is similar to where it was on August 3, 2016. Following its August 3, 2016 reading the S&P500 declined 3.63% going into November 4, 2016. This was followed by a move up to January 2018. A decline is still expected, but the percentage and duration are unknown at this point.

November 5, 2025
S&P500 – 6796.29
Mean / Average = 90.06
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.86

August 3, 2016
S&P500 -August 3, 2016 – 2163.79
SP&500 – November 4 2016 – 2085.18
3.63% decline
Mean / Average = 93.05
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.90

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ100: NYSE Financial Index

On October 13, 2025 S&P500 charts illustrated a significant divergence between price and relative strength. Today this is true for the New York Financial Index, as shown below. The 2025 Financial Index divergence appears to be a repeat of 2021. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currently have a similar divergence.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 29 2025

As of October 29, 2025 Investment Managers are bullish with the index moving up to 100.83. The index continues to follow a pattern similar to what was developed between mid-June 2021 and August 2021. While markets move higher, the latest NYSE weekly Hindenburg Omen reading indicates a sharp decline is expected in the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Hindenburg Omen

On October 29, 2025 the Hindenburg Omen was triggered, as shown in the chart below. Repetitive signals have occurred in September 2018, January – February 2020, and the latest in September –  October 2025. Based on consistent readings from the weekly chart there is a high probability of a sharp decline in the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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VIX: 2019 Chart Structure

The following charts indicate the VIX is still in the process of providing an early warning signal for future volatility. It appears the current VIX chart structure was directly or indirectly developed based on its 2019 chart structure. In either case, a decline in the markets is expected. The timeline and depth of this decline has yet to be determined.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 22 2025

As of October 22, 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 90.35. Since mid-June 2025 investment managers have been following a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and August 2021. There was a brief decline in September 2021 before markets started moving higher during the last quarter of 2021. The following are examples of Dow stock movements during 2021 and 2025. By January 2022 capital had started to move and Dow tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, and MSFT hit their peak before moving lower.

June – August 2021 stocks moving higher|
AAPL, CRM, CSCO, GS, HD, HON, JNJ, KO, MCD, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, PG, SHW, WMT

June – August 2021 stocks moving lower
AMGN, BA, CVX, INTC, VZ

June – October 2025 stocks moving higher
AAPL, AXP, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, GS, HD, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, WMT

June – October 2025 stocks moving lower
CRM, HON, PG, VZ

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 15 2025

As of October 15, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment managers have reduced their percentage of short positions from last week. The Dow is currently following a pattern that occurred in December 2024, as shown below. If this pattern continues you could see the NAAIM Index move back above 90 before moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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VIX: Early Warning

The following charts indicate the VIX is providing an early warning signal for future volatility. The 3 point peak structure in 2025 is similar to the structure developed in 2011. This is expected to lead to a decline in the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ going into the first quarter of 2026. This is also expected to lead to a sharp drop in interest rates, just as they did in 2011.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Interest Rates: TLT vs US10Yr

On September 15, 2025 it was noted that since October 2023 very large seven figure block trades have crossed the tape for TLT. This big block accumulation continues as TLT is bound within a trading range.

In addition to this, the 10Yr Note interest rate is still above its 19.3 degree support line. This rate will continue to move lower, just as it did in 2007 before the Fed cut rates  in September 2007. Prior to this cut, bad news continued to roll in from the housing market. Big mortgage losses were also increasing.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Maker Actions

Based on the following, a decline is still expected. This could be a repeat of late 2024 to early 2025, or another variation created by Market Maker actions before moving up again. .

The S&P500 RSI continues to follow a 19.23 degree support line, as shown below. This is similar to late 2024 and early 2025, as well as 2000.

On Friday October 10, 2025 Market Makers were very selective in their accumulation process with Dow stocks. Size was limited to accumulated inventory that could be distributed to investors over a relatively short period of time while prices increase slowly.

In the background optimism is still high with investors holding a significant number of call options according to the CNN Put and Call Options chart.

Like the musicians in an orchestra, the (Market Makers formerly known as) specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 8 2025

The NAAIM Index is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on December 18, 2024. As of 2:42 P.M ET today, the CNN Fear & Greed Index had a reading (33) within 1 point of where it was on December 18, 2024. The CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio indicates investors are still holding a significant number of call options. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets. Increasing volatility is still expected going into the end of 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Gold: Consolidation Phase

On October 4, 2025 data indicated that a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD would result in the start of a consolidation phase. On October 9, 2025 daily volume moved above 33 million shares as the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) moved lower. A slow consolidation phase should start from here. A change in direction would be expected if the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index reading dropped below 15.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: 1979 vs 2025

On June 30, 2025 it was noted that approval of economic stimulus bills between 2020 and 2022 would result in an accumulated cost of $12.05 trillion. Essentially,this cost is exponentially larger than the economic stimulus packages passed between 1974 and 1979. The following charts are an updated comparison of how economic stimulus affects gold.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Gold: Watch GLD

Gold continues to move higher. On September 5, 2025 it was noted that the current peak in the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index ($BPGDM) should be followed by a minimum daily volume above 30 million shares in GLD. When this occurs it indicates Market Maker’s have run out of buyers and a consolidation phase should start. This is still the case.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer