As of November 13, 2024 points 1, 2, and 3 indicate markets are expected to move higher. The NAAIM Index aligns with expectations of a year-end rally, as noted on November 13, 2024.
Dow: December 2024
On November 9, 2024 it was noted that the Dow revealed a pattern similar to September 2018. The following charts indicate the 4th Quarter Peak discussion on October 20, 2024 appears to be on track for completion by December 2024. A recession is still expected by 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple Block Trades
Behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns. One series of large Apple block trades appeared between March and May of 2024 at the bottom of a falling wedge. Another series of trades appeared recently in an ascending triangle between late September and November 2024. Based on their trading patterns in large cap stocks, such as Apple, markets are on track for a move upward going into the end of 2024.
Note that scanning for block trades should be available on most trading platforms.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/Interest Rates: September 2018
On October 13, 2024 it appeared Market Makers were using algorithms to reproduce mathematical relationships used in the 2018 Dow chart structure. The market rally this week revealed a pattern that is similar to September 2018. Based on this, the remainder of 2024 is expected to be similar to September and October 2018. Key points are identified in the following charts.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – November 6, 2024
As of November 6, 2024 NAAIM Index point 3 on the following chart aligns with October 19, 2022 and October 18, 2023. This supports the expectation of a year-end rally, as noted on November 6, 2024.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Year-End Rally
On October 27, 2024 it was noted that a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. This year-end rally would complete the 4th quarter peak discussed on October 20, 2024 before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA
On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak was expected before stock markets moved lower. To support this, Exchange Insiders setup Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA in the Dow.
History shows Intel’s inclusion in the Dow on November 1, 1999 provided Market Makers with an ability to move other stocks lower in 2000, while Intel moved higher. Declining stocks included Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Nike, and Proctor & Gamble. Market Makers were able to convince investors to stay in the market during 2000 as the Dow moved sideways. Overall, this process is a merchandising operation. Market Makers will need to move other stock prices lower in 2025 in order to buy additional inventory for the future.
The 40.9 degree angle shown below on NVIDIA’s chart is the same as Intel’s angle during 1999 – 2000. Do not conclude that NVIDIA will move significantly higher. Market Makers will only move NVIDIA as needed in order to lower other stock prices.
“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1929 Model
On October 20, 2024, it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. The Engrbytrade™ Dow 1929 Model also indicates a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. The following monthly charts show the Dow to be in a position that is similar to where it was in mid-May 1929, but that can change quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Open Futures Gaps are Rarely Abandoned
On September 9, 2024 a Dow chart identified three gaps that needed to be filled. The S&P500 had two gaps. As of today, the large Dow and S&P500 gaps created on August 8, 2024 have not been filled. This is extremely unusual, particularly in the futures market where open futures gaps are rarely abandoned. This would indicate plans are being made to return to these levels in order to fill the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following table provides a list of Dow Futures gaps since August 8, 2024.
Dow: Market Makers are Positioning for a Decline
Using the Buffett Indicator 4th Quarter peak discussion on October 20, 2024 as a guide, underlying data shows Market Makers are positioning for a decline. Trading data has shown large blocks of stock crossing the tape over the last several months, while the Dow moves higher. This distribution of stock is similar to what occurred in late 2021. Before Market Makers initiate a major decline, they will drive prices lower in a select group of stocks in unrelated industries, such as Boeing, Intel, Nike and Disney shown below. The list of declining stocks will grow as financial news outlets provide an excuse for their declining prices. This is part of the merchandising operation where Market Makers sell stock at peak retail prices and eventually repurchase stocks in a lower wholesale price range.
“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist [Market Maker] as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: 4th Quarter Peak
The Buffett Indicator is a ratio of the total United States Stock market to GDP. As of August 31, 2024 the Market Valuation to GDP was 209%, and is in the +2.2 standard deviation range. Similar events have occurred in the past where this indicator was near or above the +2 standard deviation level. This includes 1961, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2021. Each peak occurred during the 4th quarter. Once again, the Buffett Indicator is above the +2 standard deviation level. A 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets start moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 16, 2024
As of October 16, 2024 points 3, 4, and 5 on the NAAIM Index shown below are aligned within the October time frame. Markets are expected to move lower during the last half of October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500: Hindenburg Omen September 2024
The weekly Hindenburg Omen September 2024 index shows a reading of 3.0 on September 3, 2024 and September 10, 2024. A review of previous double peaks shows the following declines. Be prepared.
- January 16, 2018, January 22, 2018 – February 2018 decline
- September 4, 2018, September 17, 2018 – October – December 2018 decline
- January 27, 2020, February 18, 2020 – February – March 2020 decline
- September 3, 2024, September 10, 2024 – October – December decline?
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/Interest Rates: Intermarket Relationship
On October 8, 2024 it was noted that Market Makers took deliberate steps to follow the 2021 Dow chart structure. It also appears they are using algorithms, intentionally or not, to reproduce mathematical relationships with the 2018 Dow chart structure. The Dow’s intermarket relationship with Non-Commercial Trader 10-Yr Note interest rate positions indicates Market Makers are expecting a stock market decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Index charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – October 9, 2024
On September 26, 2024 it was noted that active money managers were reducing their equity exposure. As of October 9, 2024, it appears they are reluctant to take on additional risk. With an October 9th NAAIM Index reading of 90.26 and Fear & Greed Index reading of 72, there is a low probability of equity managers accumulating a significant amount of risk assets. On October 19, 2022 and November 15, 2023 equity managers did have some room to the upside to accumulate additional risk assets. At this point it will not take much to move the Fear & Greed Index into its Extreme Greed category. To take advantage of this situation, Market Makers may raise equity prices quickly to distribute stock and sell short.
Fear & Greed Index readings relative to the following chart.
Point 1 – October 19, 2022 = 37
Point 2 – November 15, 2023 = 67
Point 3 – October 19, 2024 = 72
Dow: 2021-2022 Chart Structure
On May 13, 2024 it was noted that the angle of support was 8.92 degrees during periods of Exchange Insider distributions. This same angle supported the Dow during 2021 and 2024. On August 5, 2024 the 16.83 degree upper trend line was added. As of October 8, 2024, the Dow has developed to a point where it is similar to its 2021 chart structure.
It appears Market Makers have taken deliberate steps to follow the 2021 chart structure. There is a high probability the Dow will repeat the initial 2022 chart structure pattern with a decline starting this month.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 2007 Rate Cut
There has been some discussion on rate cuts of September 18, 2007 and September 18, 2024. The 10-Yr Note rate is expected to decline between October and December 2024, as noted on September 28, 2024. Timing of the Dow would align with a 10-Year Note rate decline between October and December 2024. Charts provide below give some perspective on the Dow’s structure as it moves into October. Additional data will be needed to confirm a decline in the Dow.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index – September 25, 2024
On September 21, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. It also noted that if the NAAIM index moved above the red trend line, markets would trend higher. As of September 25, 2024 the index dropped to 86.64. This indicates active money managers are reducing their equity exposure. It also indicates a higher probability of stock markets declining, as they did in October 2023 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow/S&P500: New 52-Week Highs
Something that should not be overlooked is the NYSE New 52-Week Highs chart. It appears that Market Makers are in the process of selling as Retail Investors continue to buy. Over the last two years this has been a consistent contrarian indicator.
“….it is not demand that causes rising stock prices but rising stock prices that cause demand.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 88
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Update
On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The index hit a key point on September 18, 2024, as shown below. If the NAAIM index moves above the red trend line, then stock markets would be expected to trend higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Dow: Long Tail Candle
After the Fed interest rate announcement on September 18, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Dow moved to a high of 41,981.97. A review of block trades during this time revealed a majority of trades were conducted by retail traders and computer algorithms. The end result was a long tail candle for the day, which typically signals a reversal.
It should also be noted that the Dow continues to follow its 16.83 degree upper trend line, as shown below. A decline going into October 2024 is still expected.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: NAAIM Index Pattern Continues
On September 2, 2024 it was noted that the NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern. If the NAAIM Index pattern continues as it did in 2022 and 2023, another rally would be expected going into the end of 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Significant Decline Update
On July 20, 2024 Engrbytrade™ intermarket futures trading data calculations identified a series of key Commercial Trader British Pound positions in 2023 and 2024. This indicated the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ would repeat their performance of 2008. Currently the British Pound is repeating a peak that was formed in late October and early November 2007. Based on this data, stock markets are expected to have a significant decline in 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Fibonacci Expectations
On September 13, 2024 it was noted that the S&P500 candlestick on September 11, 2024 was similar to the January 24, 2022 candlestick. A review of the following 1-hour charts provided additional Fibonacci expectations that 2024 would be very similar to 2022. The Dow is currently expected to move up to the 1.68 level before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: The Markets Are Rigged
Yes, The Markets Are Rigged
In 2008 the NYSE transitioned from Specialists to Designated Market Makers and Supplemental Liquidity Providers. It is still a merchandising operation.
Approved NYSE Supplemental Liquidity Providing (SLP-PROP) Firms
HRT Financial LLC
IMC Chicago LLC
Latour Trading, LLC
Tradebot Systems, Inc.
Virtu Americas LLC
Approved NYSE Designated Market Makers
Citadel Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Company
Virtu Americas LLC