Intermarket structural analysis research
On June 15, 2024, it was noted that the Dow was moving in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. A closer look at this pattern shows algorithmic trading continues in a predetermined structure similar to 2021. It also aligns with the S&P500 Fibonacci 1.618 range discussed on June 20, 2024. A move into the 40,200 range is expected before moving lower.
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While the AI bubble sends a small group of tech stocks into a parabolic rise, Fred Hickey notes their valuations are similar to the Dutch tulip and South Sea mania.
Is A Meltdown In Tech Stocks Nearing As Doubts Of A.I.’s Impact Mount? | Fred Hickey
Although the physical structures shown below are similar, underlying technical indicators provide a relationship as well. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one example. A RSI review shows a value of 82.48 for November 24, 1972 and 86.86 for December 19, 2023.
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On June 13, 2024 it was noted that the Dow continues to move in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. To put this into context, the first Dow chart (2024) includes turning points that align with the second chart (2021). The last chart identifies time frames where very large block trades occurred. Note that very large block trading does not necessarily equate to high volume trading days.
“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89
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The Dow continues to move in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. Within this pattern very large block trades continue to cycle volatility. The last chart is an indication of where these trades occurred.
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Algorithms appear to be repeating the first week of May 2024. Between May 29, 2024 and June 5, 2024, a series of seven figure block trades crossed the tape at the close. This is very similar to what occurred during the last two weeks of April 2024. It is also similar to what occurred in the futures market between December 1, 2021 and December 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to continue moving higher, as it did in May 2024 until Market Makers start to move very large block trades again.
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The following model perspective update provides key points on the Dow that align with 1971 – 1973 structures. The Dow ultimately hit its low point in late 1974. Based on this update, the Dow currently aligns with mid-January 1973.
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The move on Friday, May 31, 2024 was a culmination of the following factors:
A brief move upward is expected before a decline is initiated.
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It appears Market Makers are starting to step in with very large seven figure block trades again. It could be a repeat of December 2021. If this is the case, Market Makers are in the process of developed a structure that was created between June 2021 and December 2021 in preparation for a larger decline.
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The Dow changed direction three times between March 2024 and May 2024, as shown below. Groups of very large, seven figure block trades were observed during each change in direction. In the sample group of block trades under observation, two large cap tech stocks stood out. Since this sample group was relatively small, there may be other companies that fit this profile. Additional work will be needed to reveal any consistent patterns.
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The Dow Jones Transportation Index typically moves with the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. There have been periods in the past when the Transportation Index lagged behind other indices, ultimately resulting in a decline of major stock indices. The most recent lag period occurred between October 2019 and January 2020 prior to a significant decline going into March 2020. The charts below currently show a significant Transportation Index lag relative to the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. A decline is still expected.
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Taking a closer look at the Dow on a 95 year timeline, the 1929 trajectory shown below is currently in alignment with a move up in mid-2024 prior to starting a decline.
Additional research shows Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculation charts reflect patterns identified in the following Dow charts. The 2024 angle of support is 8.92 degrees during periods of Exchange Insider distributions. A pattern similar to this occurred during mid-1972 and late 1973 to early 1974 using a support angle of 15.39 degrees. It also occurred between March 2007 and August 2007 with a support angle of 20.03 degrees. Large quantities of stock were distributed during this time frame.
The Stock Exchange abets its specialists’ merchandising strategies by training investors to address their attention to business statistics, economic data, and other concepts that have but limited relevance for investment purposes.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 85
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On March 22, 2024 Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicated a move to dollars was in progress. Daily calculations continue to detect subtle changes in trading patterns that are similar to what occurred between August and October of 2021. In addition to this, corporate insiders continue to sell.
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There is no shortage of endless promises of new technology from electric car manufactures. The current descending triangle chart timeline for Tesla is similar to Apple and Intel in 2008.
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2024 Tesla model 3 commercial
2008 Apple commercial
2008 Intel commercial
Prior to the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2000, a series of events initiated a dot-com bubble that would be remembered for decades. Today we have an Artificial Intelligence bubble headed for the same fate. One clear comparison is the price chart of NVIDA in 2024 vs. Apple in 2000. NVIDA’s price scale is currently 1000 times larger than Apple’s scale in 2000. Overall, the current Artificial Intelligence bubble is expected to be similar to the dot-com bubble with one difference. Instead of large brokerage firms fueling the bubble, very large hedge funds are also participating.
Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.
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On May 2, 2024 it was observed that a recent peak of positions in US Equity Futures by Asset Managers was above its 2014 peak. This indicator appeared to have a relatively low correlation to the Dow and S&P500. Further research revealed a high correlation of global companies that included CAT, CVX, IBM, and XOM.
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Structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM structure show similar characteristics and measurements to that of the 1986 – 1987 structure. IBM hit its first peak in May 1987 as compared to the first peak in April 2024. It is possible another peak will occur in October 2024. Based on its current structure, the end result is expected to be a much lower level.
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On March 27, 1973 a 39.91 degree chart illustrated the expectation of a decline that is similar to what occurred in January 1973. It is not a coincidence that the current trend is similar to January 1973. This decline is expected to continue until key sentiment indicators reach their respective extreme positions.
Be aware of the following.
“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33
Today’s Market Maker organizational structure controls the merchandising operation.
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One big tech company that has been a component of the Dow for decades is IBM. IBM’s structure between July 1972 and February 1973 is very similar to its structure between December 2022 and March 2024. Market Makers appear to be using the 1972 – 1973 IBM structure as a precursor for the next decline. It is not a coincidence that Market Makers are currently using companies, such as IBM, in a merchandising operation to push the Dow to new highs, while companies such as Amgen, Boeing, Nike, United Health, and Walgreens are being driven to lower levels.
It is typical of the specialist’s modus operandi, however, that, regardless of the trend then under way, specialist merchandising strategies will adapt themselves to exploit the profit potentials of bullish or bearish announcements.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 103
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On March 2, 2024 it was noted that a rise in the Dow between October 2023 and March 2024 was similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. Initial measurements indicate this move followed a 41.46 degree upper trend line. As of March 26, 2024, this measurement was updated in comparison with the peak in January 1973 using an upper trend line measurement of 39.91 degrees.
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Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicate a move to dollars is in progress to avoid another decline in the stock market. In 2021 daily Dow structure decline signals occurred on August 24, 2021, September 17, 2021 and October 26, 2021. The result was a 21.9% decline in the Dow between January 4, 2022 and September 30, 2022
Recent daily Dow structure signals occurred on November 21, 2023, December 15, 2023, and March 4, 2024. Based on this series of Dow signals another significant decline is expected to start in 2024. When this decline occurs the U.S. Dollar will move higher, as it did in 2022.
In addition to the daily pattern structure decline signals shown below, public records indicate Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Leon Black, and the Walton Family have sold a substantial sum of company stock.
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Dow structure decline signals
A review of futures trading data revealed a correlation between E-Mini S&P 500 engrbytrade™ signals received on May 30, 2023 and September 11, 2007. The E-Mini signals are unusual and would not be expected prior to a move in the Dow or S&P500. But, when placing these signals within the context of a Fibonacci structure, it does provide some insight to an expectation of markets changing direction.
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In March 2000, the Internet Bubble was well underway with Intel going parabolic. Intel ultimately survived the Dot Com bust, but numerous computer and technology companies did not survive and were “disestablished” in the decade that followed.
Today artificial intelligence has introduced the AI Bubble, and it is well underway with NVIDIA leading the way. Comparing Intel in March 2000 to NVIDIA in March 2024 provides some insight to the relative position of today’s bubble. NVIDIA’s current position aligns with the Dow ratio measurement taken on March 3, 2024. Optimism will continue as it did going into March – April 2000, when many tech stocks peaked.
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Based on angles discussed on March 2, 2024 where algorithms appear to continue duplicating the 1973 Dow structure, an Engrbytrade™ custom ratio measurement was taken from reference points where geometric lines intersect rather than using traditional Fibonacci structure points. Based on the 1973 Dow structure shown below, a brief decline is still expected, followed by a 1.65% move up above the February 23, 2024 high to reach 45,763.88 (+/- 1%) before starting a long term decline.
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