Category: Dow

Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to hit a peak closing price of 25054.98 (+/-1%) this week.  This will mark the end of the retracement structure and a decline should start immediately thereafter.

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The decline to 18590 (+/-1%) is still expected to occur by July 1, 2020, as noted on May 16, 2020.  In addition to this, calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving lower after July 1, 2020 to 15,178 (+/-1%) by July 15, 2020.

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Due to a gap on the one minute futures chart that was left on April 30, 2020 at 06:52, Commercial Futures Traders pushed the Dow up to fill this gap before moving lower. Unfinished business still remains as noted on 5/8/20.

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Commercial Traders setup a series of positions last week in order to complete the second half of the March 23, 2020 to April 29, 2020 Dow retracement structure with a decline to 18,590 (+/-1%) by July 1, 2020.  It is possible this decline could move below the 18,590 level.  Additional notes will be added if this is expected.

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A detailed review of Dow futures trading data revealed a gap down of 282 points occurred between 5:00 pm (EST) on February 21, 2020 and 6:00 pm(EST) on February 23, 2020.  This gap was not filled and subsequently led NYSE Market Makers to open the Dow with a reading of 28,402.93 during the morning of February 24, 2020.  To resolve this gap a move up to 28,892.70 will be needed in 2020 before conducting the next major decline.  In the interim, the Dow is expected to hit a low of 18,213 (+/- 1%) by June 9, 2020 before moving higher to resolve any unfinished business from February 23, 2020.  After moving up to 28,892.70, another decline is expected to occur that will be larger than the February to March 2020 decline.

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Calculations continue to indicate the 2009 to 2020 Dow structure has been designed in a way that it will collapse very quickly in 2020.  A deep decline is expected going into October 2020, ultimately reaching a low of 4964 in 2021. This target price aligns with long term engrbytrade embedded trade marker points.

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A detailed review of Dow structural data covering February, March and April 2020 indicates a decline is still expected to start this week.  In addition to reaching 20,800 in May 2020, calculations revealed the current Dow structure is unstable and is expected to have a significant impact on markets in 2020 and 2021. The current rate of change in this structure indicates a potential decline to a level below 16,000 before the end of 2020.

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Market Maker activities over the last several trading days indicate a decline to 22,800 is expected to occur by Tuesday, April 28, 2020.  Adjustments based on their activities also indicate that this decline will continue with a move down to 20,800 (+/-1%) by May 4, 2020 (+/1 trading day) before moving higher in May, June and July.

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After an early morning drop on Tuesday, April 21, 2020, a move back up to 23,400 is expected.  Structural calculations show the Dow moving down to 22,300 (+/-1%) by Friday, April 24, 2020.

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The result of today’s price action indicates Market Makers are planning a decline that will take the Dow down to 20,800 (+/-2%) by April 27, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).  The 18,213 support level is still in place.

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The sharp decline noted on 4/9/20 is in progress.  Current structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 20,800 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 at 4:00 p.m.  If needed, calculations will be updated for the Dow hitting 18,435.

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Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a  33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.

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Since March 23, 2020 Market Makers have managed to construct a Dow structure, along with inverse derivative structures, that indicate a sharp decline in the Dow is expected to start during options expiration week.  At this point calculations show the Dow reaching a low of 18,435 (+/- 2%) by April 20, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).

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Current structures in the Futures Market indicate Market Makers are in the process of accumulating short sales to maximize profits by adjusting the next low in the Dow to reach 20,819 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 (+/-  1 trading day). The potential still exists for the Dow to reach 19,136 at a later date.

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Based on the rate of speed in which the Dow turning point arrived, structural calculations and volatility noted on March 29, 2020, a rapid decline is in order to a level of 19,136.17 (+/-2%) by Wednesday, April 8, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) prior to moving higher.

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A spread of 4,382 Dow points from the low on March 23, 2020 to a high on March 26, 2020 resulted in the development of a Dow turning point that arrived sooner than expected.   The Dow is now expected to move quickly to a lower level of 20,123 (+/- 2%) before moving higher.

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Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions.  The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions.  Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%).  Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.

In the futures market, as of 04:30 a.m. EST on March 19, 2020, a Double Bottom Reversal has formed in the Dow.  This indicates a move upward to 24,490.39 is expected to start soon.

Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline.  Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.

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Ongoing research and calculation adjustments based on Market Maker actions indicate the Dow is expected to reach 19,294.34 (+/-1%) by Wednesday, March 18, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).  Preliminary estimates indicate this low will provide a turning point for a move up to 24,442.83 (+/-2%) by August 21, 2020.

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Based on the current Dow algorithm and Market Maker actions, calculations now show the Dow is expected to reach a low (during options expiration) of 19,313 (+/- 2%) by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.

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On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST.  This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today.  A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.

As of March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST Futures Traders bypassed their move to the upside in preparation for a significant move lower.  Starting March 9, 2020, Futures Traders setup a Double Top pattern that will result in a move to the downside between March 12 and March 13, 2020 to a level of  22, 615 (+/-1%).

Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020.  Margin calls are in progress…..