After an early morning drop on Tuesday, April 21, 2020, a move back up to 23,400 is expected. Structural calculations show the Dow moving down to 22,300 (+/-1%) by Friday, April 24, 2020.
Dow: Price Action Update
The result of today’s price action indicates Market Makers are planning a decline that will take the Dow down to 20,800 (+/-2%) by April 27, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). The 18,213 support level is still in place.
Dow: Options Expiration Update
The sharp decline noted on 4/9/20 is in progress. Current structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 20,800 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 at 4:00 p.m. If needed, calculations will be updated for the Dow hitting 18,435.
Dow: 18,213 Support Level
Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a 33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.
Dow and Silver: Rising Wedge
Observing one hour charts for the Dow and Silver, it appears they are near the end of a rising wedge formation before starting their decline.
Dow: Options Expiration
Since March 23, 2020 Market Makers have managed to construct a Dow structure, along with inverse derivative structures, that indicate a sharp decline in the Dow is expected to start during options expiration week. At this point calculations show the Dow reaching a low of 18,435 (+/- 2%) by April 20, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Short Sale Structures
Current structures in the Futures Market indicate Market Makers are in the process of accumulating short sales to maximize profits by adjusting the next low in the Dow to reach 20,819 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). The potential still exists for the Dow to reach 19,136 at a later date.
Dow: Turning Down
Based on the rate of speed in which the Dow turning point arrived, structural calculations and volatility noted on March 29, 2020, a rapid decline is in order to a level of 19,136.17 (+/-2%) by Wednesday, April 8, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) prior to moving higher.
Dow: Extreme Volatility
A spread of 4,382 Dow points from the low on March 23, 2020 to a high on March 26, 2020 resulted in the development of a Dow turning point that arrived sooner than expected. The Dow is now expected to move quickly to a lower level of 20,123 (+/- 2%) before moving higher.
Federal Reserve Intervention
Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions. The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions. Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%). Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.
Dow: Double Bottom Reversal
In the futures market, as of 04:30 a.m. EST on March 19, 2020, a Double Bottom Reversal has formed in the Dow. This indicates a move upward to 24,490.39 is expected to start soon.
Dow: 52.5% Retracement
Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.
Dow: Turning Point
Ongoing research and calculation adjustments based on Market Maker actions indicate the Dow is expected to reach 19,294.34 (+/-1%) by Wednesday, March 18, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Preliminary estimates indicate this low will provide a turning point for a move up to 24,442.83 (+/-2%) by August 21, 2020.
Dow: Option Expiration
Based on the current Dow algorithm and Market Maker actions, calculations now show the Dow is expected to reach a low (during options expiration) of 19,313 (+/- 2%) by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Dow: Decline Continues
On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST. This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today. A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.
Dow: Double Top Pattern
As of March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST Futures Traders bypassed their move to the upside in preparation for a significant move lower. Starting March 9, 2020, Futures Traders setup a Double Top pattern that will result in a move to the downside between March 12 and March 13, 2020 to a level of 22, 615 (+/-1%).
Dow: Margin Call
Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020. Margin calls are in progress…..
Dow: Friday 13th Low
After nine trading days of extreme volatility, Market Makers have modified their timeline to set up a structure that is expected see the Dow close on a low of 24,191 (+/-1%) by Friday, March 13, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Decline Into April
On January 3, 2020 it was noted that a decline is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. After reviewing data up to this point calculations indicate this decline is still expected with minor adjustments. The Dow is now expected to drop between February 10, 2020 and April 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) to a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%). Volatility will be extreme during this decline as a significant number of investors try to sell at the same time. If Exchange Insiders delay this decline, it will set the stage for a decline at a later date that will shake the foundation of the financial industry.
Long Term Perspective
Investors continue to buy shares with borrowed funds as they did 300 years ago with the South Sea Company. When prices started to fall in the last half of 1720 speculators went bankrupt and fortunes were lost. The structure shown above represents the Dow from 1973, after the U.S. went off of the gold standard, until February 2020. Timelines for developing the 1720 and 2020 price structures are vastly different, but the chart structures are similar and the underlying element of excessive debt that drives this market is identical.
Dow – 3rd Try
Today’s upward move in the Dow will be the third try for Futures Traders to fill the gap between 28890.5 and 28908 that was left behind on January 26, 2020 at 17:00 (5:00 p.m. EST). Once this is complete, the Dow should continue to move lower.
Review the 15 minute chart.
Exceeding Structural Limits
If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.
Dow Upper Trend Line
On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Dow: 1st Quarter 2020
Based on the identification of a Dow turning point occurring by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day), as noted on December 29, 2019, a decline is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow should decline to 20,044 (+/- 1.5%) by March 10, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Note that volatility is expected to increase significantly during this decline.
Dow Turning Point
Current data indicates the Dow Jones is expected to reach a turning point by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Once this 90 year structure is complete, a long term decline should start and take the Dow below 6,000 by October 2022.