Intermarket structural analysis research
On March 22, 2024 Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicated a move to dollars was in progress. Daily calculations continue to detect subtle changes in trading patterns that are similar to what occurred between August and October of 2021. In addition to this, corporate insiders continue to sell.
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There is no shortage of endless promises of new technology from electric car manufactures. The current descending triangle chart timeline for Tesla is similar to Apple and Intel in 2008.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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2024 Tesla model 3 commercial
2008 Apple commercial
2008 Intel commercial
Prior to the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2000, a series of events initiated a dot-com bubble that would be remembered for decades. Today we have an Artificial Intelligence bubble headed for the same fate. One clear comparison is the price chart of NVIDA in 2024 vs. Apple in 2000. NVIDA’s price scale is currently 1000 times larger than Apple’s scale in 2000. Overall, the current Artificial Intelligence bubble is expected to be similar to the dot-com bubble with one difference. Instead of large brokerage firms fueling the bubble, very large hedge funds are also participating.
Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.
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On May 2, 2024 it was observed that a recent peak of positions in US Equity Futures by Asset Managers was above its 2014 peak. This indicator appeared to have a relatively low correlation to the Dow and S&P500. Further research revealed a high correlation of global companies that included CAT, CVX, IBM, and XOM.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM structure show similar characteristics and measurements to that of the 1986 – 1987 structure. IBM hit its first peak in May 1987 as compared to the first peak in April 2024. It is possible another peak will occur in October 2024. Based on its current structure, the end result is expected to be a much lower level.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On March 27, 1973 a 39.91 degree chart illustrated the expectation of a decline that is similar to what occurred in January 1973. It is not a coincidence that the current trend is similar to January 1973. This decline is expected to continue until key sentiment indicators reach their respective extreme positions.
Be aware of the following.
“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33
Today’s Market Maker organizational structure controls the merchandising operation.
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One big tech company that has been a component of the Dow for decades is IBM. IBM’s structure between July 1972 and February 1973 is very similar to its structure between December 2022 and March 2024. Market Makers appear to be using the 1972 – 1973 IBM structure as a precursor for the next decline. It is not a coincidence that Market Makers are currently using companies, such as IBM, in a merchandising operation to push the Dow to new highs, while companies such as Amgen, Boeing, Nike, United Health, and Walgreens are being driven to lower levels.
It is typical of the specialist’s modus operandi, however, that, regardless of the trend then under way, specialist merchandising strategies will adapt themselves to exploit the profit potentials of bullish or bearish announcements.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 103
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On March 2, 2024 it was noted that a rise in the Dow between October 2023 and March 2024 was similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. Initial measurements indicate this move followed a 41.46 degree upper trend line. As of March 26, 2024, this measurement was updated in comparison with the peak in January 1973 using an upper trend line measurement of 39.91 degrees.
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Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicate a move to dollars is in progress to avoid another decline in the stock market. In 2021 daily Dow structure decline signals occurred on August 24, 2021, September 17, 2021 and October 26, 2021. The result was a 21.9% decline in the Dow between January 4, 2022 and September 30, 2022
Recent daily Dow structure signals occurred on November 21, 2023, December 15, 2023, and March 4, 2024. Based on this series of Dow signals another significant decline is expected to start in 2024. When this decline occurs the U.S. Dollar will move higher, as it did in 2022.
In addition to the daily pattern structure decline signals shown below, public records indicate Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Leon Black, and the Walton Family have sold a substantial sum of company stock.
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Dow structure decline signals
A review of futures trading data revealed a correlation between E-Mini S&P 500 engrbytrade™ signals received on May 30, 2023 and September 11, 2007. The E-Mini signals are unusual and would not be expected prior to a move in the Dow or S&P500. But, when placing these signals within the context of a Fibonacci structure, it does provide some insight to an expectation of markets changing direction.
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In March 2000, the Internet Bubble was well underway with Intel going parabolic. Intel ultimately survived the Dot Com bust, but numerous computer and technology companies did not survive and were “disestablished” in the decade that followed.
Today artificial intelligence has introduced the AI Bubble, and it is well underway with NVIDIA leading the way. Comparing Intel in March 2000 to NVIDIA in March 2024 provides some insight to the relative position of today’s bubble. NVIDIA’s current position aligns with the Dow ratio measurement taken on March 3, 2024. Optimism will continue as it did going into March – April 2000, when many tech stocks peaked.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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Based on angles discussed on March 2, 2024 where algorithms appear to continue duplicating the 1973 Dow structure, an Engrbytrade™ custom ratio measurement was taken from reference points where geometric lines intersect rather than using traditional Fibonacci structure points. Based on the 1973 Dow structure shown below, a brief decline is still expected, followed by a 1.65% move up above the February 23, 2024 high to reach 45,763.88 (+/- 1%) before starting a long term decline.
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The following chart provides a point eleven of thirteen update to reflect angles discussed on March 2, 2024.
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The rise in the Dow and S&P 500 between October 2023 and March 2024 has been similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. The Dow moved upward along a 41.46 degree trend line while the S&P 500 followed a 43.23 degree trend line. This would indicate the 2023 – 2024 structures were developed by algorithms based on what occurred in late 1972. The expected result of this move is a brief decline followed by one more move upward before starting a long decline in 2024.
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It was noted on February 12, 2024 that preliminary calculations indicated placement of the final point in a 1973 structure model would be expected to occur within a 2024 peak range of 38,559 +/-5.963% (36,260 to 40,859). On Friday, February 23, 2024, the Dow hit a high of 39,282.3. Market Makers, Exchange Insiders, Bankers, et al. are at a crossroad where they need to decide if the 1973 model structure will continue with a decline in 2024, or adapt to another structure and continue moving higher. This also applies to the S&P500. Ultimately, the end result will be a significant decline and depression for either choice.
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Since mid-December 2023 a series of descending triangles have appeared that include Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Walgreens, and the Japanese Yen. This is very similar to what occurred between April – September 2008 with stocks such as Apple, Chevron, Disney, and Goldman Sachs. Currency descending triangles in 2008 included the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc. Based on the current Japanese Yen descending triangle, it is a preliminary indication of positioning expected in the U.S. Dollar before moving higher, as noted on January 20, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On January 26, 2024 and February 4, 2024 it was noted how Market Makers move a group of stocks without revealing their intentions to the public while providing minimal impact on the Dow’s movement. Between February 1, 2024 and February 20, 2024 Market Makers conducted selective declines in Amgen, Cisco, Honeywell, and Verizon. In order to avoid a rush of broad retail selling an offset to this decline was setup with a move up in issues such as American Express, Caterpillar, Salesforce, Disney, JP Morgan, Merck, Travelers, and Walmart. This was conducted to maintain the Dow within 50 point range between February 1, 2023 and February 20, 2023.
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the ( Market Makers formerly known as Specialists) who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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On February 5, 2024 a review of the Dow Transportation Index revealed similar angles in the 2007 – 2008 and 2021 – 2024 chart structures. The Dow Utility Average Index also contains a similar angle of 30.89 degrees in the declining structures shown below.
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Using the 1973 Dow chart structure as a model discussed on February 11, 2024, preliminary calculations indicate placement of point 13 on the following chart would be expected to occur within a 2024 peak range of 38,559 +/-5.963% (36,260 to 40,859).
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On January 12, 2024, a 12 point chart was posted to illustrate a repeating 2018 structure. The Dow index has continued to follow this structure, as well as the 1971 – 1973 structure shown below.
Based on sentiment presented on February 7, 2024 and February 10, 2024, a decline is expected to start over the near term.
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Robert Prechter: Market Forecast 2024
This video presentation provides a description of specific indicators measuring investor optimism and pessimism. Engrbytrade™ does not use Elliott wave principles due to the fact that wave labeling is subjective and Market Makers, with support from the financial media, control investor’s emotions as they raise and lower prices. Structural measurements are taken based on proprietary intermarket technical analysis of financial data and chart structures created during the course of specific time frames.
Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists)
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
A review of Engrbytrade™ Daily Trade Pattern Structure Calculation results between November 17, 2023 and January 17, 2024 indicate a significant change in direction to lower levels is expected during 2024. The results are similar to what occurred between September 17, 2021 and December 10, 2021. Change in direction signals are identified in the charts below.
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As part of a wider market structural review, the Dow Transportation Index provides some additional insight on the state of the market. Since October 2022 the Transportation Index has developed a similar form of its 2008 chart structure. In addition to this, the Transportation Index stopped moving higher after the beginning of 2024, unlike the Dow Jones Index moving to new highs.
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On January 26, 2024, a decline preview of the Dow was provided to show how Market Makers initiate a decline without revealing their intentions to the public. The next phase for Market Makers is to coordinate a selected tech stock decline. This will be done using Apple, Cisco, Honeywell, and Intel while the public is distracted with new highs in the Dow.
“In a bear market specialists (currently known as Market Makers) will invariably advance the Dow on a Friday in order not to allow pessimism to build over a weekend—…” Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 92
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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A ratio measurement between October 17, 1972 and January 11, 1973 was taken with a peak result of 3.35, as shown in the bottom chart. The same measurement was taken between October 27, 2023 and January 30, 2024 with a peak result of 3.2043. The January 30, 2024 measurement of 3.2043 is within 4.3% of the January 11, 1973 measurement of 3.35. Today, a decline is expected based on key factors noted on January 29, 2024. Additional data will be needed to see if a decline similar to the first quarter of 1973 occurs.
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