Category: Dow

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Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intel Block Trades

Between October 2022 and June 2023 very large Intel block trades crossed the tape approximately every other month. This was followed by a steady move up into the end of 2023 before falling in 2024. Over the last two and one-half months it was observed that very large block trades crossed the tape at an irregular pace.  Typically this would be an accumulation process by Market Makers. But, with the Warren Buffet stock market indicator hitting an all-time high, as it did at the beginning of 2000, it is not clear what Market Maker’s intend to do.

Note that this information is for research purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500/Dow/NASDAQ: AAPL Block Trade Review

This block trade review found two AAPL trades of more than $1.6 billion occurred on December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021 before markets started their decline in 2022. Two more AAPL trades of more than $1.7 billion occurred on June 11, 2024 and June 20, 2024. It is an indication that Market Makers are expecting another decline in 2024.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Algorithmic Trading

On June 15, 2024, it was noted that the Dow was moving in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. A closer look at this pattern shows algorithmic trading continues in a predetermined structure similar to 2021. It also aligns with the S&P500 Fibonacci 1.618 range discussed on June 20, 2024. A move into the 40,200 range is expected before moving lower.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Turning Points

On June 13, 2024 it was noted that the Dow continues to move in a pattern similar to the last half of 2021. To put this into context, the first Dow chart (2024) includes turning points that align with the second chart (2021). The last chart identifies time frames where very large block trades occurred.  Note that very large block trading does not necessarily equate to high volume trading days.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: First Week of May

Algorithms appear to be repeating the first week of May 2024. Between May 29, 2024 and June 5, 2024, a series of seven figure block trades crossed the tape at the close. This is very similar to what occurred during the last two weeks of April 2024. It is also similar to what occurred in the futures market between December 1, 2021 and December 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to continue moving higher, as it did in May 2024 until Market Makers start to move very large block trades again.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Brief Move Upward

The move on Friday, May 31, 2024 was a culmination of the following factors:

  • 7 figure block trades crossing the tape on 5/29, 5/30/, and 5/31/2024
  • The Fear and Greed Index being in a position similar to where it was on January 19, 2023.
  • No Dow or S&P500 futures gaps in their 5-min charts above the close on 5/31/24
  • One small gap remains in the NASDAQ futures 5-min chart on 5/28/24 above 18,942.

A brief move upward is expected before a decline is initiated.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Block Trades

The Dow changed direction three times between March 2024 and May 2024, as shown below. Groups of very large, seven figure block trades were observed during each change in direction. In the sample group of block trades under observation, two large cap tech stocks stood out. Since this sample group was relatively small, there may be other companies that fit this profile. Additional work will be needed to reveal any consistent patterns.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Transportation Index Lag

The Dow Jones Transportation Index typically moves with the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. There have been periods in the past when the Transportation Index lagged behind other indices, ultimately resulting in a decline of major stock indices. The most recent lag period occurred between October 2019 and January 2020 prior to a significant decline going into March 2020. The charts below currently show a significant Transportation Index lag relative to the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices. A decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 8.92 Degrees

Additional research shows Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculation charts reflect patterns identified in the following Dow charts. The 2024 angle of support is 8.92 degrees during periods of Exchange Insider distributions. A pattern similar to this occurred during mid-1972 and late 1973 to early 1974 using a support angle of 15.39 degrees. It also occurred between March 2007 and August 2007 with a support angle of 20.03 degrees. Large quantities of stock were distributed during this time frame.

The Stock Exchange abets its specialists’ merchandising strategies by training investors to address their attention to business statistics, economic data, and other concepts that have but limited relevance for investment purposes.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 85

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Promises of Technology

There is no shortage of endless promises of new technology from electric car manufactures. The current descending triangle chart timeline for Tesla is similar to Apple and Intel in 2008.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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2024 Tesla model 3 commercial

2008 Apple commercial

2008 Intel commercial

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Dow/S&P500: Artificial Intelligence Bubble

Prior to the NASDAQ hitting its peak in 2000, a series of events initiated a dot-com bubble that would be remembered for decades. Today we have an Artificial Intelligence bubble headed for the same fate. One clear comparison is the price chart of NVIDA in 2024 vs. Apple in 2000. NVIDA’s price scale is currently 1000 times larger than Apple’s scale in 2000. Overall, the current Artificial Intelligence bubble is expected to be similar to the dot-com bubble with one difference. Instead of large brokerage firms fueling the bubble, very large hedge funds are also participating.

Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: Global Companies

On May 2, 2024 it was observed that a recent peak of positions in US Equity Futures by Asset Managers was above its 2014 peak. This indicator appeared to have a relatively low correlation to the Dow and S&P500. Further research revealed a high correlation of global companies that included CAT, CVX, IBM, and XOM.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow/S&P500: 2024 IBM Structure

Structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM structure show similar characteristics and measurements to that of the 1986 – 1987 structure. IBM hit its first peak in May 1987 as compared to the first peak in April 2024. It is possible another peak will occur in October 2024. Based on its current structure, the end result is expected to be a much lower level.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: January 1973 Decline

On March 27, 1973 a 39.91 degree chart illustrated the expectation of a decline that is similar to what occurred in January 1973.  It is not a coincidence that the current trend is similar to January 1973. This decline is expected to continue until key sentiment indicators reach their respective extreme positions.

Be aware of the following.

“Most investors will probably never make money in the market over the long run unless they learn to look at the market as a merchandising operation in which specialists manipulate stock prices in order to sell at retail what they bought at wholesale price levels.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 33

Today’s Market Maker organizational structure controls the merchandising operation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: IBM Structure

One big tech company that has been a component of the Dow for decades is IBM. IBM’s structure between July 1972 and February 1973 is very similar to its structure between December 2022 and March 2024. Market Makers appear to be using the 1972 – 1973 IBM structure as a precursor for the next decline. It is not a coincidence that Market Makers are currently using companies, such as IBM, in a merchandising operation to push the Dow to new highs, while companies such as Amgen, Boeing, Nike, United Health, and Walgreens are being driven to lower levels.

It is typical of the specialist’s modus operandi, however, that, regardless of the trend then under way, specialist merchandising strategies will adapt themselves to exploit the profit potentials of bullish or bearish announcements.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 103

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: January 1973

On March 2, 2024 it was noted that a rise in the Dow between October 2023 and March 2024 was similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. Initial measurements indicate this move followed a 41.46 degree upper trend line. As of March 26, 2024, this measurement was updated in comparison with the peak in January 1973 using an upper trend line measurement of 39.91 degrees.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Move to Dollars

Engrbytrade™ daily trade pattern structure calculations indicate a move to dollars is in progress to avoid another decline in the stock market. In 2021 daily Dow structure decline signals occurred on August 24, 2021, September 17, 2021 and October 26, 2021. The result was a 21.9% decline in the Dow between January 4, 2022 and September 30, 2022

Recent daily Dow structure signals occurred on November 21, 2023, December 15, 2023, and March 4, 2024. Based on this series of Dow signals another significant decline is expected to start in 2024. When this decline occurs the U.S. Dollar will move higher, as it did in 2022.

In addition to the daily pattern structure decline signals shown below, public records indicate Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Leon Black, and the Walton Family have sold a substantial sum of company stock.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow structure decline signals