Category: Dow

The first chart shown below provides the Dow’s current calculated trajectory. The second chart is a 2006 – 2008 trajectory for the Dow illustrating how the current trajectory should move.

The Dow’s move above its current line of trajectory is similar to what occurred in November and December of 1916. In the last half of December 1916 the Dow dropped quickly below its line of trajectory and continued to move lower resulting in a 40% decline by December 19, 1917.

The Dow is currently expected to move back in line with its calculated trajectory and continue on its projected line of descent going into November 2024.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Between June 1, 2023 and December 7, 2023 the Dow has been moving methodically through a trading process similar to what was produced between September 17, 2021 and January 6, 2022. Although the price chart structures are different, daily  engrbytrade™ trading calculations produced peak signals on July 21, 2023, September 7, 2023, and November  21, 2023 that are similar to the peak signal pattern produced on October 26, 2021, December 8, 2021, and January 4, 2022.

In addition to the signals noted above, Dow E-Mini futures signals produced on October 26, 2021, December 10, 2021, and January 6, 2022 are similar to the peak signal patterns produced on July 21, 2023, September 8, 2023 and November 22, 2023.

It was also observed that a pattern of extremely large block trades crossed the tape within the trading areas of interest shown below between June 2023 and December 2023, just as they did between September 2021 and January 2022. Based on this comparison of peak signals, a decline is still expected.

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On November 2, 2023 the following charts were included with a comparison between 2018 and 2023 10-Yr note rates when the Dow was expected to move up to 35,078 +/- 1%. Since November 2, 2023 the Dow has moved up in a chart structure similar to what was developed between November 2, 2018 and November 9, 2018. On November 15, 2023 the Dow hit a high of 35,051.10. This move indicates 10-Yr rates could start to move lower sooner than expected while stock markets decline.

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Daily engrbytrade™ structural calculation results have shown the Dow’s decline from July 21, 2023 to October 6, 2023 is similar to what occurred between October 26, 2021 and December 1, 2021. To put this in perspective, the move down from July to October 2023 is part of a long term process for moving the Dow to lower levels. The Dow is currently in a process of repeating a move similar to what occurred between December 2, 2021 to January 5, 2022 in order to fill the Dow futures gap created on August 1, 2023 at 6:00 p.m. and S&P500 futures gap created on August 2, 2023 at 9:30 a.m. This will also provide Market Makers with the means to distribute their inventory before moving markets lower.

Note: The Dow structure developed in the last quarter of 2023 is not expected to be an exact replica of December 2021.

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July 21, 2023 – October 6, 2023

October 26, 2021 – December 1, 2021

On October 19, 2023 it was noted that the Dow structure was in a similar position to where it was on March 22, 2023. Additional research revealed the September 1, 2023 to October 26, 2023 Dow structure is very similar to its structure that was developed between September 1, 2023 and October 12, 2022. Large block trades are also in a pattern that is similar to what occurred between September 26, 2022 and October 12, 2022. A move up to 35,078 +/- 1% is still expected.

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The charts below are a comparison of Head and Shoulder Reversal formations during 2023 and 2007. The current move up is expected to be similar to what occurred between November 27, 2007 and December 10, 2007.

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2023

2007

On September 15, 2023 it was noted that the topping process was complete and similar to what occurred between late 2021 and early 2022. The engrbytrade™ mini Dow futures signal confirms a long term decline is in progress and is expected to continue through 2024.

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Disclaimer

2023

2022

On October 12, 2023, it was noted that a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 is similar to what occurred in 2018. A detailed review of the 1973 vs 2023 19 point chart posted on September 29, 2023 against the charts shown below revealed that Market Makers shifted away from the 1973 model to a 2018 chart structure starting in mid-March 2023, just  prior to the start of interest rates moving higher in the 2^nd quarter of 2023. A move up to 34,598 +/- 1% by October 18, 2023 is expected before starting a sharp decline.

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Disclaimer

On October 10, 2023 it was noted that the 2018 and 2023 10-Yr interest rate charts had similar underlying characteristics based on 10-Yr Non-Commercial futures trader’s positions. The following 2023 Dow chart also illustrates a decline structure setup going into the last quarter of 2023 that is similar to what occurred in 2018.

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The Dow is currently expected to move higher based on changes in U.S. Dollar future positions and recent changes in relative value of the Euro and Silver. The U.S. Dollar and 10-Yr Note are expected to move lower in 2023.

The following charts provide a comparison of 1973 to 2023 turning points. As of September 29, 2023 the Dow is estimated to be in a similar position to where it was on August 22, 1973.

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On September 9, 2023 it was noted that a 3^rd signal of repetitive computer program selling had not appeared within a 4 trading day window of the September 8, 2023 E-Mini Dow futures signal. On September 14, 2023, 4 trading days after the E-Mini Dow futures signal on September 8, 2023, a process of repetitive computer program selling was observed. This appears to have completed the topping process, which is similar to what occurred between late 2021 and early 2022, as shown in the chart below.

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On August 19, 2023 actual Fibonacci percentages were calculated for a comparison between 1987 and 2023. As of September 8, 2023, the Dow continues to stay within its comparative range from 1987. Very large block trades observed between late August 2023 and early September 2023 appear to be similar in nature to what was observed in October 2022. At this point the Dow is expected to continue moving higher.

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On September 6, 2023 it was noted that two out of three Mini Dow futures signals were received. It was also observed that an indication of repetitive computer program selling appeared within a four day window of each of the first two Mini Dow futures signals.

On September 8, 2023 a 3^rd Mini Dow futures signal was received indicating the topping process is near completion. At this point, repetitive computer program selling has not appeared within a 4 day window, as it did with the first two signals. The following charts show a comparison between the February 2023 to September 2023 structure and the August 2021 to January 2022 structure.  

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Disclaimer

On July 31, 2023, it was noted that Engrbytrade™ Dow daily derivative related calculations from CBOT Mini Dow futures trading data indicated a topping process was in progress. As of September 5, 2023 two out of three Mini Dow futures signals have been received. It was also observed that an indication of repetitive computer program selling appeared within a four day window of each Mini Dow futures signal. Computer program selling is not an unusual activity, but being so close to each Mini Dow signal should be noted. The following charts show a comparison between the February 2023 to September 2023 structure and the August 2021 and January 2022 structure.

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Disclaimer

The 2023 structure illustrated below indicates Market Makers are trying to repeat the performance of 2019 – 2020. If the current Dow structure continues to follow the 2019 – 2020 pattern and moves above its 161.80% level there is a high probability of a sharp decline.

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Disclaimer

On July 27, 2023 it was noted that a brief pullback would be expected before moving higher. On August 12, 2023 change in direction calculations continued to support a move higher. The Dow charts below have been updated to reflect their actual Fibonacci percentages for 2023 and 1987. At this point there is a 7.726% difference in the Fibonacci peak of August 2023 and June 1987.

Between August 7, 2023 and August 17, 2023, numerous large block trades were observed in pre-market trading sessions. Over the last year, this type of trading activity is typically been seen at the market close. It was also taking place during a period of time when the CBOE Put/Call Ratio was moving higher, as shown in the chart below. A move higher is still expected. Note that this expectation could change quickly, just as it did during the last week of August 1987 and first week of September 1929.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations discussed on August 6, 2023 were supported with a secondary confirmation in the daily Engrbytrade™ Dow “Change in Direction” calculation on August 8, 2023. A similar change in direction calculation result was received on October 6, 2021.

In addition to this, an observation was made during a review of intraday trading data that Market Makers appeared to be accumulating stock of large cap tech stocks between August 8, 2023 and August 11, 2023, as prices moved sideways during the week.

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Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show price action relative to volume data on August 4, 2023 is similar to what was developed on December 1, 2021, March 3, 2022 and November 2, 2022.  A move upward is expected to continue in August.

Observation: During July 2023 a steady stream of billion dollar trades crossed the tape. Hedge funds and institutions appear to be chasing tech stocks.

Traders Are Risking It All on Bets That Market Boom Will Last

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The Dow continues to move along its 127.20% Fibonacci level shown in the chart below. A brief pullback is still expected to track with the Dow’s pullback in late June 1987 before moving higher.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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