During the day of March 4, 2022 the 5 minute chart developed a rising wedge. Since this structure was completed prior to the end of the trading day, a decline is expected to start and fill several gaps on the way down to 23.53. A move to 19.18 is still expected.
Silver: Decline Starting
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on intermarket futures trading data and structural calculations, silver is starting a decline that is expected to be similar to the decline between June 14, 2018 and September 11, 2018. Preliminary calculations show a drop to 19.18 is expected.
Silver: Silver vs. U.S. Dollar
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate silver is in a position with the U.S. Dollar that is similar to where it was in September 2008 and is quickly approaching the point of initiating a decline to 18.81 (+/- 5%) before moving higher. After completing this decline, both silver and palladium are expected to move significantly higher over the next two years as stock markets collapse in 2022 and 2023. Gold is lagging behind, but its position could change quickly based on 2008 characteristics that are developing.
Silver: Structural Changes
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Futures trading data calculations indicate the silver structure shown above has taken on characteristics of the January 2011 to April 2013 silver structure. Silver is still positioned for a decline as it moves through the descending triangle shown above. Based on structural calculation changes silver is expected to move down to $18.81 (+/- 5%) before the end of 2021.
Silver: October Decline
In the August 28, 2021 post it was noted that calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. As of October 1, 2021, current structural calculations indicate silver is in a similar position to where it was on August 8, 2008. Based on 2008 vs 2021 structural data, silver is expected to move down to $16.00 (+/- 5%) by October 18, 2021.
Silver: Two Part Move
Intermarket trading data calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. The first part is expected to move silver down to 19.28 before the end of 2021. Following the decline in 2021, a second move down to 16.35 is expected to start during the first quarter of 2022. It should be noted that over the long term, calculations have shown silver is expected to produce a similar parabolic structure as the move between November 2001 and April 2011. The current long term structure started in September 2018.
Silver: Downward Trend
A downward trend remains intact for silver as the U.S. Dollar continues to move up while the British Pound moves lower this year. Silver is expected to reach 21.00 by the end of November 2021.
Silver: Deflationary Forces
Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate a decline in silver. With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar. It also aligns with a peak in the price of silver against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Silver post on May 16, 2021. A repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 is expected where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of silver much lower over the next three years.
Silver: Trader Positions
Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate Commercial Futures Traders are positioned to take advantage of a decline in silver. As a minimum, silver is expected to reach 19.42 by November 2021. In addition to this, there is a 60% chance silver will have a repeat performance of the May-November 2008 decline based on Dow key events discussed in the May 12, 2021 post. This is also based on the large number of Non-Commercial Futures traders long silver positions in place relative to its current value against the Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Franc, etc. If these positions stay in place or increase, a decline to 8.32 would be expected by November 2021.
Silver: Decline Continues
Currency and silver calculations indicate Commercial Futures Traders are positioned to take advantage of a steady decline in silver. Silver is expected to reach 19.42 by November 2021.
Silver: Overnight Peak
Based on calculations related to the British Pound, silver is still on track to decline with the stock market. A peak is expected in the overnight markets between April 13, 2021 and April 14, 2021.
Silver: Adjustments
Adjustments in commercial trader positions and the price structure show silver moving above 29.00 by April 12, 2021 prior to falling to 21.00 by April 16, 2021.
Silver: Short Positions Update
The short term silver price structure from June 28, 2011 to September 13, 2011 is similar to the price structure from November 30, 2020 to March 9, 2021. Commercial Futures Traders silver short positions on March 9, 2021 were 8% higher than they were on September 13, 2011. This post updates the March 7, 2021 entry (Silver: Short Positions) to indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48, by March 30, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Silver: Short Positions
Current structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48 by March 23, 2021. A long term decline in silver is planned based on the significant number of short positions held by Commercial Traders. The U.S. Dollar is expected to move higher over the next two years and drive metal prices lower.
Silver: Decline Extended
During the short squeeze in silver between January 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021, it appears Market Makers sold a significant number of shares to retail investors rushing in to buy silver derivatives such as SLV. Commercial Futures Traders short positions remained relatively unchanged. This short squeeze is expected to extend the decline previously planned for silver. Adjustments in the engrbytrade silver model indicate a move to 13.93 is expected by August 25, 2021.
Silver: Short Squeeze
The rally in silver today was expected as exchange insiders sold short to retail investors rushing in to buy silver. This short squeeze, discussed in the following article, is a move designed to drop the price of silver during the first half of 2021. Commercial Traders will continue to hold a significant number of short positions. A move to 12.33 is expected by June 2021.
Is The Reddit Rebellion About To Descend On The Precious Metals Market?
Silver: Decline Expected
The expectation that Silver will decline has not changed. Commercial Futures Traders still hold significant short positions while retail customers continue to purchase long positions. Silver will need to decline in order to be in alignment with the value of global currencies. Silver is still expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Silver: Algorithm Continues
Silver, similar to gold, is apparently in the process of completing an algorithm that contains an instruction set originally developed between July 4, 2016 and November 9, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Silver: 2016 Algorithm
Similar to gold, High Frequency Trading machines are in the process of using an algorithm that contains a similar instruction set for silver developed between July 8, 2016 and September 23, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.75 (+/-3%) by mid-April, 2021.
Silver: Descending Triangle
High level structural patterns indicate a sharp decline in silver is expected during December, 2020. On November 21, 2020, it was noted that silver would reach a low of 16.50 (+/-3%) by December 23, 2020. A sharp decline below the Descending Triangle lower horizontal line (as shown below) is consistent with this 16.50 projection. Based on a 16.50 silver price in December, as well as global demand, $50 is expected in 2021. Additional research will be needed to project a specific timeline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Silver: December Low
Structural calculations indicate silver will move down in tandem with the Dow to reach a low of 16.50 (+/-3%) by December 23, 2020 before moving higher.
Silver: Short Positions
Short term structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are expected to accumulate short positions by driving silver up to 28.11 (+/- 3%) over the next 30 days in preparation for a move down to 16.50 (+/-3%).
Silver: Structural Update
The expectation for Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers to start a decline in silver has not changed. Based on the current price structure, silver is expected start a decline during the week of September 20, 2020 and drop below $20 by the end of 2020 before moving higher.
Silver: Below $20
Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers are still planning to conduct a sharp decline in silver. By September 16, 2020 silver is expected to drop below the $20 mark prior to moving higher.
Silver: Sharp Decline
Based on the actions of Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers, engrbytrade calculations indicate a sharp decline in silver is expected between August 14, 2020 and August 21, 2020. Model results point to silver potentially reaching $17 by August 21, 2020.