Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate a decline in silver. With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar. It also aligns with a peak in the price of silver against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Silver post on May 16, 2021. A repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 is expected where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of silver much lower over the next three years.
Silver: Trader Positions
Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate Commercial Futures Traders are positioned to take advantage of a decline in silver. As a minimum, silver is expected to reach 19.42 by November 2021. In addition to this, there is a 60% chance silver will have a repeat performance of the May-November 2008 decline based on Dow key events discussed in the May 12, 2021 post. This is also based on the large number of Non-Commercial Futures traders long silver positions in place relative to its current value against the Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Franc, etc. If these positions stay in place or increase, a decline to 8.32 would be expected by November 2021.
Silver: Decline Continues
Currency and silver calculations indicate Commercial Futures Traders are positioned to take advantage of a steady decline in silver. Silver is expected to reach 19.42 by November 2021.
Silver: Overnight Peak
Based on calculations related to the British Pound, silver is still on track to decline with the stock market. A peak is expected in the overnight markets between April 13, 2021 and April 14, 2021.
Silver: Adjustments
Adjustments in commercial trader positions and the price structure show silver moving above 29.00 by April 12, 2021 prior to falling to 21.00 by April 16, 2021.
Silver: Short Positions Update
The short term silver price structure from June 28, 2011 to September 13, 2011 is similar to the price structure from November 30, 2020 to March 9, 2021. Commercial Futures Traders silver short positions on March 9, 2021 were 8% higher than they were on September 13, 2011. This post updates the March 7, 2021 entry (Silver: Short Positions) to indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48, by March 30, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Silver: Short Positions
Current structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48 by March 23, 2021. A long term decline in silver is planned based on the significant number of short positions held by Commercial Traders. The U.S. Dollar is expected to move higher over the next two years and drive metal prices lower.
Silver: Decline Extended
During the short squeeze in silver between January 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021, it appears Market Makers sold a significant number of shares to retail investors rushing in to buy silver derivatives such as SLV. Commercial Futures Traders short positions remained relatively unchanged. This short squeeze is expected to extend the decline previously planned for silver. Adjustments in the engrbytrade silver model indicate a move to 13.93 is expected by August 25, 2021.
Silver: Short Squeeze
The rally in silver today was expected as exchange insiders sold short to retail investors rushing in to buy silver. This short squeeze, discussed in the following article, is a move designed to drop the price of silver during the first half of 2021. Commercial Traders will continue to hold a significant number of short positions. A move to 12.33 is expected by June 2021.
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Silver: Decline Expected
The expectation that Silver will decline has not changed. Commercial Futures Traders still hold significant short positions while retail customers continue to purchase long positions. Silver will need to decline in order to be in alignment with the value of global currencies. Silver is still expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Silver: Algorithm Continues
Silver, similar to gold, is apparently in the process of completing an algorithm that contains an instruction set originally developed between July 4, 2016 and November 9, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Silver: 2016 Algorithm
Similar to gold, High Frequency Trading machines are in the process of using an algorithm that contains a similar instruction set for silver developed between July 8, 2016 and September 23, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.75 (+/-3%) by mid-April, 2021.
Silver: Descending Triangle
High level structural patterns indicate a sharp decline in silver is expected during December, 2020. On November 21, 2020, it was noted that silver would reach a low of 16.50 (+/-3%) by December 23, 2020. A sharp decline below the Descending Triangle lower horizontal line (as shown below) is consistent with this 16.50 projection. Based on a 16.50 silver price in December, as well as global demand, $50 is expected in 2021. Additional research will be needed to project a specific timeline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Silver: December Low
Structural calculations indicate silver will move down in tandem with the Dow to reach a low of 16.50 (+/-3%) by December 23, 2020 before moving higher.
Silver: Short Positions
Short term structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are expected to accumulate short positions by driving silver up to 28.11 (+/- 3%) over the next 30 days in preparation for a move down to 16.50 (+/-3%).
Silver: Structural Update
The expectation for Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers to start a decline in silver has not changed. Based on the current price structure, silver is expected start a decline during the week of September 20, 2020 and drop below $20 by the end of 2020 before moving higher.
Silver: Below $20
Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers are still planning to conduct a sharp decline in silver. By September 16, 2020 silver is expected to drop below the $20 mark prior to moving higher.
Silver: Sharp Decline
Based on the actions of Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers, engrbytrade calculations indicate a sharp decline in silver is expected between August 14, 2020 and August 21, 2020. Model results point to silver potentially reaching $17 by August 21, 2020.
Silver: Volatility Continues
As volatility continues to increase, silver is expected to start moving up exponentially between August 2020 and February 2021. Based on the latest run up to the $30 mark in overseas trading, calculations now show a drop below the $24 mark before moving higher. The next level for silver is expected to be in the $70 range by October 2020.
Silver: Sharp Decline Warning
Be aware that calculations indicate Commercial Futures Traders are planning to start a sharp structural decline in silver this week with potential intraday futures trading below the $18 mark over the next several trading days.
Silver: August 2020 Decline
Final structural calculations for silver indicate a decline starting August 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) and moving down to $20.60 (+/- 0.60) by August 14, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). This move is expected to occur during the decline of the Dow, as noted on July 23, 2020.
Silver: U.S. Dollar Alignment
At this point in time silver has entered a range where its relative value is out of alignment with the U.S. Dollar. A brief pullback is expected, as mentioned on July 21, 2020, prior to moving significantly higher.
Silver: Short Term Move
Short term calculations indicate a brief pullback in silver is expected going into mid-August before starting a significant move upward during the last four months of 2020. A price target of $40 is expected by the end of October 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate a silver price of $80 by January 2021.
Silver: Accumulation Effort
There is a 28% chance that silver will drop below 15.00 during the Dow’s upcoming decline, as noted on June 26, 2020. If silver drops below 15.00 it will confirm a major accumulation effort is nearing its end and higher silver prices are expected during the last half of 2020 and first quarter of 2021.
Silver: Silver vs. Gold
Based on Silver’s current trading structure, it is expected to follow a similar pattern as gold. A low in the range of $16.75 is expected by July 6, 2020 prior to moving higher.