On April 6, 2023 it was noted that positioning for very large (stock) distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. As of April 11, 2023, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate this activity is continuing and preparations are still underway for a significant decline in 2023.
S&P500: Jeremy Grantham
The following is a brief clip of Jeremy Grantham from Grantham, Mayo and Van Otterloo (GMO)
Jeremy Grantham: ‘The best we can hope for is that we bottom at 3,000’
Dow/S&P500: April – December 1974 Update
On February 25, 2023 Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 illustrated the expectation that this year would be similar to April through December 1974. Updated estimates indicate the end result would be near 18,000 for the Dow and 2400 for the S&P500. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1974 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Decline to 3808
S&P500 1-hour futures algorithms continue to develop a descending triangle that was initiated on March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Timeline calculations indicate the S&P500 is expected to initiate a decline out of this descending triangle by April 12, 2023 and move down to 3808 (+/- 1%) in order to complete a triple top reversal structure. Preliminary calculations indicate this triple top reversal structure will setup a decline to 3364.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: 1-Hour Descending Triangle
Currently in the process of observing the 1-hour futures chart develop a descending triangle. This formation appears to be similar to what was developed between May 27, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET and June 9, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
S&P500: Positioning for Distributions
Daily Engrbytrade™ S&P500 calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021. This positioning also indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Eight Point Decline
Starting at 11:41 a.m. today, the Dow and S&P500 1-minute chart followed the Engrbytrade eight point trading model shown below. This is typically followed by a rally.
Dow/S&P500: Put/Call Ratio Update
Update. Rally to continue.
Dow/S&P500: Rally to Follow
Put/Call Ratio = 0
Rally to Follow.
Dow/S&P500: 2021 vs 2023
Between October 19, 2021 and November 22, 2021 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculation results were found to be similar to results produced between January 19, 2023 and March 6, 2023. This comparison indicates the Dow January 2023 to March 2023 structure is expected to be a prelude for a decline over the next several months. It would also align with the expectation of a decline discussed on February 25, 2023. Similarities were also found for the S&P500 between October 20, 2021 to November 19, 2021 and January 17, 2023 to February 28, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: Jerome Powell Testimony
Just in time for a market decline. Timing is everything.
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Jerome Powell testimony
Date: Wednesday March 8 2023
Time: 10:00 AM
The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
Dow/S&P500: March 2023 Decline
Daily intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the Dow and S&P500 are expected to continue to decline in March 2023 based on comparable calculation results from February 2, 2022 and August 24, 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: 1966 – 1973
Market Makers have successfully managed to develop Dow and S&P500 chart structures between 2018 and 2023 that are similar to chart structures between 1966 and 1973. The end result is also expected to be similar to 1974. Arrows in the charts below overlay Engrbytrade™ markers based on comparable calculations from 1966 to 1973 and indicate a steady decline is expected until the end of 2023. Preliminary estimates indicate the end result would be a drop below 14,000 for the Dow and below 2000 for the S&P500.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Stock Market Decline in 2023
Intensifying War, Enormous Upside for Gold – Charles Nenner
- Inflation continues to move higher
- Fed Funds rate continues to move up to 5 ½ to 6%
- Market declines 38% in 2023 (starting in March)
- 2027 crash of all crashes (1929 situation)
- Gold in a trading range and declines until March. A major move up starts in May
S&P500: Descending Broadening Wedge
The S&P500 1-hour chart is in the process of developing a descending broadening wedge. Based on this structure the potential exists for a brief move up to fill a gap between 4219-4228 that was created on August 21, 2022. Regardless of whether this move occurs, a meaningful decline down to its lower trend line on a daily chart is still expected.
S&P500/NASDAQ: Descending Triangle
Note that the S&P500 and NASDAQ 15-minute charts are in the process of forming a descending triangle. A decline is expected.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intraday Gaps
The Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ are still expected to move higher. Algorithms are currently in the process of filling intraday gaps created during a volatile trading period after Jerome Powell’s speech on February 7, 2023.
S&P500: Move To 4297
The S&P500 is still on track to move above 4228 and fill its August 19-21 futures gap. On a relative scale, calculations indicate algorithms developed the January 19, 2023 to February 7, 2023 1-hour futures chart structure (with adjustments as needed) based on characteristics from the July 14, 2022 to August 10, 2022 1-hour futures chart. Using these similarities, calculations indicate a move up to 4297 (+/- 1%) is expected before making a significant move to lower levels.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Falling Wedge
Note that the S&P500 1-hr futures chart is in a falling wedge. Just like it was between January 27, 2023 and January 31, 2023. A move up is expected to fill the gap created between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022 before moving lower.
S&P500: Continue Moving Higher
The response from stock markets concerning an interest rate increase of 0.25% indicates algorithms are expected to continue moving the S&P500 higher to close a 5-minute futures chart gap created on August 21, 2022. A move up above 4229 in the futures market within 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days), starting on January 30, 2023, is still expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/Nasdaq: Earnings
Dow/S&P500: Algorithms Filling Gaps
Between January 19, 2023 and January 27, 2023 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate algorithms have been positioning the Dow to set up a brief move upward prior to starting a decline. The January 19 – 27, 2023 calculations are similar to results received between December 8, 2021 to December 17, 2021 and August 4, 2022 to August 9, 2022. Prior to conducting a decline in the Dow, algorithms are expected to move the Dow higher and fill a gap that was created in the 5-minute Dow futures chart on December 14, 2022. This would move the Dow above 34,617 in the futures market before a decline would start.
Algorithms are also expected to move the S&P500 above 4229 in the futures market to fill a gap created in the 5-minute futures chart between August 19, 2022 and August 21, 2022.
This move up is calculated to take 8.5 trading days (+/- 1.5 trading days). A move down is still expected in accordance the January 25, 2023 post.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: S&P500 December 14, 2022 Gap Filled
On December 14, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. the Federal Reserve raised the overnight borrowing rate one-half percent to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. This announcement resulted in a gap of the 1-hour S&P500 and Dow futures charts. The S&P500 gap was filled at the close on January 26, 2023. It appears algorithms are working to fill the December 14, 2022 Dow futures chart gap above 34,482.
Dow/S&P500: Inverse Derivative Calcs
Daily engrbytrade™ inverse derivative calculations indicate the Dow and S&P500 are expected to decline. Calculations for the Dow are similar to results from January 4, 2022 and February 9, 2022. Calculations for the S&P500 are similar to results from April 1, 2022 and August 4, 2022. Engrbytrade structural calculations in the futures market indicate the S&P500 is expected to reach 2891 (+/-1%) and the Dow to ultimately reach 27,108 (+/- 1%).
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
