Category: SP500

On May 5, 2023 calculations indicated a decline to 3,887 by May 15, 2023 was expected based on an initial chart structure similar to what was developed between February 10, 2022 and February 16, 2022. Additional data from distribution time frames, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations, structural calculations and Fibonacci measurements indicate S&P500 algorithms are in the process of recreating a chart structure similar to what was developed during January 2022, as shown in the charts below. A sharp decline to 3,872 (+/-1%) is expected during options expiration week going into May 19, 2023 (+/- 1 trading day).

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow and S&P500 calculations continue to indicate Market Makers are still in the process of distributing large quantities of stock during the latest 2023 time frame shown below. This process is described in Richard Ney’s books when NYSE Specialists managed the order flow. During the last quarter of 2021 Market Makers conducted a similar distribution process before moving markets lower.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On April 18, 2023 at 06:30 a.m. the S&P500 futures chart moved into the 1% range of 4236, as noted on April 13, 2023.

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On April 6, 2023 S&P500 calculations indicated that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This was similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021 and indicated preparations were being made for a significant decline in 2023.

On April 10, 2023 it was observed that the 1-hour futures chart developed a descending triangle. This formation appeared to be similar to what was developed between May 27, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET and June 9, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.

On April 11, 2023 S&P500 1-hour futures algorithms continued to develop a descending triangle that was initiated on March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Timeline calculations indicated the S&P500 was expected to initiate a decline out of this descending triangle by April 12, 2023 and move down to 3808 (+/- 1%) in order to complete a triple top reversal structure.

The April 12, 2023 post referred to the April 6, 2023 post noting that positioning for very large (stock) distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. As of April 11, 2023, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations indicated this activity was continuing and preparations were still underway for a significant decline in 2023.

A second April 12, 2023 post referred to the April 10, 2023 post, that noted the 1-hr S&P500 futures chart was developing a descending triangle. Timeline calculations indicated this same S&P500 1-hr futures chart was expected to drop out of its descending triangle after the NYSE close on April 12, 2023 and continue to move lower in overnight trading.

This summary concludes that the S&P500 1-hr futures chart has adapted characteristics similar to the Dow 1-hr futures chart. The S&P500 futures chart structure was initiated on March 13, 2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET. By April 12, 2023 it appeared that this same S&P500 1-hr futures chart was developing a descending triangle. On April 12, 2023 at 8:00 p.m. ET, it changed direction and started tracking upward with the Dow 1-hr futures chart. This change in direction indicates the S&P500 is expected to move up to 4236 (+/- 1%) by April 19, 2023 before moving lower.

Disclaimer

 

The April 10, 2023 post noted that the 1-hr S&P500 futures chart was developing a descending triangle. Timeline calculations indicate this same S&P500 1-hr futures chart is expected to drop out of its descending triangle after the NYSE close today and continue to move lower in overnight trading.

Disclaimer

On April 6, 2023 it was noted that positioning for very large (stock) distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. As of April 11, 2023, daily Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate this activity is continuing and preparations are still underway for a significant decline in 2023.

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The following is a brief clip of Jeremy Grantham from Grantham, Mayo and Van Otterloo (GMO)

Jeremy Grantham: ‘The best we can hope for is that we bottom at 3,000’

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S&P500 1-hour futures algorithms continue to develop a descending triangle that was initiated on March 31, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Timeline calculations indicate the S&P500 is expected to initiate a decline out of this descending triangle by April 12, 2023 and move down to 3808 (+/- 1%) in order to complete a triple top reversal structure. Preliminary calculations indicate this triple top reversal structure will setup a decline to 3364.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Currently in the process of observing the 1-hour futures chart develop a descending triangle. This formation appears to be similar to what was developed between May 27, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET and June 9, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.

Disclaimer

Daily Engrbytrade™ S&P500 calculations indicate that positioning for very large distributions took place between February 28, 2023 and April 5, 2023. This is similar to what took place between October 20, 2021 and November 19, 2021. This positioning also indicates preparations are being made for a significant decline in 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The S&P500 1-hour chart is in the process of developing a descending broadening wedge. Based on this structure the potential exists for a brief move up to fill a gap between 4219-4228 that was created on August 21, 2022. Regardless of whether this move occurs, a meaningful decline down to its lower trend line on a daily chart is still expected.

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