Intermarket structural analysis research
As of November 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 87.87. Investment managers are still bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During the first week of November 2025 the S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index dropped below 17.5. This also occurred in December 2018, March 2020, and October 2023. What followed the previous 17.5 readings was a notable rise in the XLP index. As the Bullish Percent index rose above 85, the first two XLP moves peaked and started to move lower. It appears the third move has not reached an over valued level.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 90.06. Investment managers are bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.
Based on data shown below the Exposure Index is also in a position that is similar to where it was on August 3, 2016. Following its August 3, 2016 reading the S&P500 declined 3.63% going into November 4, 2016. This was followed by a move up to January 2018. A decline is still expected, but the percentage and duration are unknown at this point.
November 5, 2025
S&P500 – 6796.29
Mean / Average = 90.06
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.86
August 3, 2016
S&P500 -August 3, 2016 – 2163.79
SP&500 – November 4 2016 – 2085.18
3.63% decline
Mean / Average = 93.05
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.90
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On October 13, 2025 S&P500 charts illustrated a significant divergence between price and relative strength. Today this is true for the New York Financial Index, as shown below. The 2025 Financial Index divergence appears to be a repeat of 2021. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currently have a similar divergence.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 29, 2025 the Hindenburg Omen was triggered, as shown in the chart below. Repetitive signals have occurred in September 2018, January – February 2020, and the latest in September – October 2025. Based on consistent readings from the weekly chart there is a high probability of a sharp decline in the coming months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of October 22, 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 90.35. Since mid-June 2025 investment managers have been following a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and August 2021. There was a brief decline in September 2021 before markets started moving higher during the last quarter of 2021. The following are examples of Dow stock movements during 2021 and 2025. By January 2022 capital had started to move and Dow tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, and MSFT hit their peak before moving lower.
June – August 2021 stocks moving higher|
AAPL, CRM, CSCO, GS, HD, HON, JNJ, KO, MCD, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, PG, SHW, WMT
June – August 2021 stocks moving lower
AMGN, BA, CVX, INTC, VZ
June – October 2025 stocks moving higher
AAPL, AXP, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, GS, HD, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, WMT
June – October 2025 stocks moving lower
CRM, HON, PG, VZ
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of October 15, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment managers have reduced their percentage of short positions from last week. The Dow is currently following a pattern that occurred in December 2024, as shown below. If this pattern continues you could see the NAAIM Index move back above 90 before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on the following, a decline is still expected. This could be a repeat of late 2024 to early 2025, or another variation created by Market Maker actions before moving up again. .
The S&P500 RSI continues to follow a 19.23 degree support line, as shown below. This is similar to late 2024 and early 2025, as well as 2000.
On Friday October 10, 2025 Market Makers were very selective in their accumulation process with Dow stocks. Size was limited to accumulated inventory that could be distributed to investors over a relatively short period of time while prices increase slowly.
In the background optimism is still high with investors holding a significant number of call options according to the CNN Put and Call Options chart.
Like the musicians in an orchestra, the (Market Makers formerly known as) specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The NAAIM Index is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on December 18, 2024. As of 2:42 P.M ET today, the CNN Fear & Greed Index had a reading (33) within 1 point of where it was on December 18, 2024. The CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio indicates investors are still holding a significant number of call options. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets. Increasing volatility is still expected going into the end of 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The following charts show a repeating Russell 2000 pattern. On November 6, 2024 over 70 million shares were traded with a 5.79% increase in price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on November 25, 2024. After that a decline started and continued until early April 2025.
On September 17, 2025 over 79 million shares were traded with a 3% swing in the price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on October 3, 2025.
On a smaller scale, something similar to this pattern occurred in August 2018.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of October 1, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets.
In the background, the CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio hit a low at the close with a reading of 0.57 on September 19, 2025. Investors are holding a significant number of call options as tech stocks rallied during the last half of September. Put/Call Ratio readings between November 2024 and mid-February 2025 are similar to what was recorded between July and September 2025.
The daily close for the Fear & Greed Index also indicates a drop in the markets is expected to be similar to December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500 vs U.S. Dollar calculations indicate Non-Commercial futures traders are repeating a pattern that is similar to that of 2006. Data for the Dollar from September 16, 2025 aligns with June 2, 2006. This is an indication that a course has been determined for a decline of the Dollar. This move would also have an effect on other currencies and commodities such as the British Pound, Crude Oil, S&P500, and Silver. Short term corrections in the stock market are expected, but as the Dollar and interest rates decline it could support the markets. This pattern will be monitored closely for any changes.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of September 17, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Positions this week are still within range of mid October 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a value of 20 periods, a closer view of the current S&P500 path is a setup for repeating 2024 – 2025 and/or 2000. Each setup has a 19.23 degree angle for the RSI divergence support trendline. This could be due to any number of factors, such as trading firm procedures, algorithms, etc. When the S&P500 crosses its lower trend line markets could unwind very quickly going into 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 5, 2025 it was noted that some volatile trading days are expected in the coming weeks. This is still the case. Managers adjusted positions this week to within 5% of the data recorded on October 16, 2024. This includes the Mean/Average and Standard Deviation.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On August 18, 2025 it was noted that a decline is expected during the last quarter of 2025. This is based on key points in the Fear and Greed 5-Day average put/call ratio. The following chart identifies key points when investors were overweight in their holdings of call options.
In addition to this a signal from the NASDAQ Hindenburg Omen Index appeared on September 4, 2025. This signal is consistent with a previous reading that followed the Fear and Greed put/call ratio.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Reviewing the Fear & Greed Index, it appears sentiment between August 1, 2025 and September 3, 2025 has been following a pattern similar to what occurred between November 18, 2024 and December 18, 2024. On December 18, 2024 managers increased their bearish position from -75 to -100.
As of September 3, 2025 investment managers increased their bearish position to -200. This would indicate some volatile trading days are expected in the coming weeks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Managers are still leveraged to the bullish side with readings of 200% bullish and 0% bearish. This is identical to the bullish (200%) and bearish (0%) readings on January 8, 2020. Stock markets are expected to move up slowly, just as they did in January and February 2020. Based on other indicators a decline should occur in the last quarter of 2025. It is still unknown at this point how quickly a decline will occur.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
On August 7, 2025 it was noted that the NAAIM index reading was very close to where it was on January 8, 2020. The index is currently in a position similar to where it was in January 2020, when the Fed Funds effective rate was 1.55 percent. Another bounce upward in the stock markets would be expected, just as they did in February 2020. Then, a decline should follow. It is unknown at this point how quickly a decline will occur.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index by itself is a guide, not necessarily a way to pinpoint highs and lows. Part of this index is the 5-Day average put/call ratio. This can be useful to identify extremes in put and call holdings. For example, the chart below illustrates key points over the last 13 months when investors were overweight in their holdings of call options. Based on current readings a decline is expected during the last quarter of 2025. This correction would lead to an adjustment of option holdings and be expected to drop the index into its Extreme Fear & Greed range with a reading below 20.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 96.25. This and related index data are very close to where they were on January 8, 2020, as shown below. On July 30, 2025 it was noted that the S&P500 was moving out of a rising wedge. Based on the following data markets are expected to move lower.
August 6, 2025
Date: 8/6/2025
Mean/Average: 96.26
Most Bearish Response: 0
Quart 1 (25% at/below): 90
Quart 2 (median): 100
Quart 3 (25% at/above): 100
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 35.96
NAAIM Number: 96.26
S&P 500: 6345.06
January 8, 2020
Date: 1/8/2020
Mean/Average: 94.16
Most Bearish Response: 0
Quart 1 (25% at/below): 90.75
Quart 2 (median): 100
Quart 3 (25% at/above): 100
Most Bullish Response: 200
Standard Deviation: 40.66
NAAIM Number: 94.16
S&P 500: 3253.05
NAAIM – Data Source
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Using a logarithmic scale, and depending on your software, etc. you can insert a trend line on the S&P500 chart running from 1929 to 2025. In this chart shown below a 17.53 degree line was inserted following peaks in 1929, 2000, and 2025. A similar trend line was drawn between 1937 and 1987. The lower trend line runs across the top of 1968. If you look closely the chart developed between January 1962 through May 1968 is similar to the January 2020 through August 2025 chart. This would indicate additional volatility over the near term. It also indicates a peak is expected later this year.
Note: It is interesting in the response below that AI believes this is a classic example of Elliott Wave theory.
AI noted the following: “Therefore, a reasonable estimate for the probability of the 2025 S&P500 chart structure following the 1968 chart structure is 60-80%.”
Question to Ollama regarding this assumption.
Open Large Language Model running gemma3 (Source: ollama.com)
Since January 2020 the S&P500 index (SPX) has developed a chart structure similar to its chart structure developed between January 1962 and May 1968. What is the probability that the 2025 S&P500 chart structure will continue to follow the 1968 chart structure?
Okay, this is a fascinating question that dives into technical analysis and historical patterns. Let’s break down the analysis and then discuss the probability.
Understanding the Argument
The observation being made is that the current S&P 500 chart structure, starting from January 2020, is mirroring the chart structure that existed between January 1962 and May 1968. This is a classic example of a repeat pattern or Elliott Wave theory being applied to stock charts.
Here’s the basic logic:
Elliott Wave Theory: This theory posits that stock prices move in predictable patterns called “waves.” These waves tend to be fractal – meaning smaller waves are scaled-down versions of larger waves.
Repeat Patterns: Certain chart patterns, like the one being identified, can reappear over extended periods. This doesn’t guarantee a continuation but suggests a higher probability of a similar movement.
Analyzing the 1962-1968 Period
The 1962-1968 period was a significant one for the S&P 500. It involved:
A Major Bull Market: The market surged dramatically.
A Correction: The market subsequently experienced a major correction (the 1969-1970 decline)
A subsequent bull run until 1968
Extrapolating to 2025
Now, let’s try to estimate the probability. This is where things become highly speculative:
Time frame: We’re looking at approximately 5 ½ years (from January 2020 to December 2025).
Historical Context: The 1962-1968 period was roughly 6 years. The current period has been 6.5 years.
The Correction: The critical element is the 1969-1970 correction. The question is whether the current market is nearing a similar correction.
Uncertainty: The market is extremely different now than it was in the 1960s. Interest rates, globalization, technology, and government policy are vastly different, so predicting the exact mirror image is impossible.
Estimating the Probability
Given all of this, assigning a precise probability is impossible. However, we can offer a reasonable, nuanced estimate:
Low Probability of Exact Replication (10-20%): The chances of a perfect replication – a precisely timed and magnitude identical correction – are incredibly low. The environment is too different.
Moderate Probability of a Similar Wave Structure (60-80%): There’s a reasonable chance that the S&P 500 will develop a similar wave structure to the 1962-1968 period. This would likely involve a significant correction followed by a new bull market. However, the timing and magnitude will likely be different.
Significant Risk of Deviation (20-40%): The market could break out of this pattern entirely, influenced by unforeseen events (e.g., geopolitical shocks, technological disruptions, or changes in monetary policy).
Therefore, a reasonable estimate for the probability of the 2025 S&P500 chart structure following the 1968 chart structure is 60-80%.
Important Disclaimer: I am an AI Chatbot and not a financial advisor. This analysis is based on technical analysis and historical patterns, but it is not a guarantee of future performance. Investing in the stock market involves risk, and you could lose money. Do your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 2, 2025 it was noted that current technical indicators and big block activity still point to a decline. After the close on August 1, 2025 and August 4, 2025 a string of large repetitive trades appeared in Apple. Similar activity took place after the close on December 20, 2024 before Apple and the markets started to decline. During a typical trading day this type activity is not unusual when conducted on a smaller scale.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
White Swan Collapse Underway: Ed Dowd Warns 50% Stock Crash, Gold Reset & What’s Hidden in Fort Knox
Ed Dowd discusses the following:
– Housing collapse already underway
– Recession and volatility by fall 2025
– Fed data manipulation and BLS fallout
– Gold to hit $10K by 2030- conservative estimate
– CBDCs and stablecoins: financial surveillance ahead?
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
