Category: SP500

The following should provide some perspective on big block trading during the decline in 2025. A 27 day period was selected during the decline in March – April 2025 and September – October 2023. Apple block trades with over 5 million shares were used as a sample base. Results showed the total number of Apple shares traded in March – April 2025 was 49% larger than September – October 2023. Since Market Makers operate a merchandising system, they will have an incentive to distribute this, and other shares accumulated, at much higher prices in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Starting in January 2025 Apple’s Market Maker has been very active with the movement of extremely large seven figure block trades. Big block trading activity continues to revolve around what has been identified as an Engrbytrade™ Eight Point Trading Model structure. This structure has been used in both stock and futures markets on a regular basis. It appears Apple is in the process of following this model in preparation for a decline later in the year. If this continues, Apple’s 2025 decline could be significant.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On April 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index chart provided a rising trend with a reading similar to where it was on October 25, 2023. Using data going back to February 2020 the current NAAIM Index reading is in a position similar to where it was on October 4, 2023. This aligns with the overlay of Fear & Greed readings shown below. Several other indicators also show stock markets are expected to move higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Exposure Index data courtesy of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Since March 31, 2025 seven figure block trades have been crossing the tape for Johnson & Johnson. A similar sequence occurred between January 6, 2025 and January 24, 2025. It appears Market Makers have been accumulating inventory between the 140 and 154 range. This aligns with the S&P Healthcare sector bullish percentage index.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On March 19, 2025 seven steps provided an example of how Market Makers manipulate investors in order to accumulate or distribute inventory. The following chart shows an overlay of fear ratings on top of Market Maker price action and accumulation of inventory. Between March 3, 2025 and March 18, 2025 ten very large Apple block trades of over 5 million shares each crossed the tape . All of these trades occurred at the market close. It appears this is part of a much bigger Market Maker accumulation process. Additional data will be needed to confirm this.

A similar sequence of events occurred when ten very large Apple blocks crossed the tape between March 1, 2023 and March 16, 2023.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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After many years of watching the tape, this appears to be how Market Maker’s (formerly known as Specialists) accumulate inventory. It has always been a merchandising operation and Apple is just one example.

Step 1. Optimism: February 24, 2025
Apple announced they will spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.

Step 2. Uncertainty: March 3, 2025
Extremely large blocks started crossing the tape at the close each day.

Step 3. Fear: March 4, 2025 through March 8, 2025
March 4, 2024, CNBC discussed the potential impact tariffs will have on Apple.

Step 4. Sell: March 10, 2025

Market Makers accelerate the decline with a 4.8% drop during the day.

Step 5. Extreme Fear: March 11, 2025

The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 13.

Step 6. Buy: March 18, 2025

Between March 3 and March 18, 2025 a total of  $15.7 billion in extremely large (7 figure) block trades crossed the tape. Who purchased this inventory? Market Makers formerly known as Specialists.

Step 7. Market Makers are now expected to move prices higher in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On January 12, 2025 a preliminary review was done on the 1973 and 2025 Dow index structures. It was noted that the 1973 and 2025 charts were strikingly similar. Previous postings shown below indicate the probability of a decline in the Dow is increasing. Using the following posts, and charts with Fibonacci scales in place, a preliminary conclusion can be made that a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This decline could be similar to 2022 where volatility would be the norm.

1. Alignment of the 2018 and 2025 US 10-Yr Note vs 2025 Dow index.

2. Indications of capital moving to Swiss Francs.

3. The expectation of crude oil moving lower.

4. Market Maker accumulation of TLT.

5. The growing number of Dow stocks collapsing since 2020.

6. Engrbytrade markers pointing to a decline going into the end of 2026

7. As of November 9, 2024 the Buffett Indicator (Market Valuation to GDP) was 209%.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On January 22, 2025 it was noted that futures traders held a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar on January 9, 2007, and May 30, 2017. After each short position peak, stock markets started moving higher over several months. After Canadian Dollar short positions hit a peak on July 30, 2024, the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ had a brief decline. During this decline the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 16 (Extreme Greed) on August 5, 2024. Stock markets continued to move higher.

Today, Non-Commercial futures traders still hold a substantial number of short positions in the Canadian Dollar. In addition to this, the CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 15 (Extreme Greed) on February 28, 2025. At this point it is unknown if there is a direct intermarket correlation between stock markets and the Canadian Dollar. Additional data will be needed to study this interaction. In the interim, the Fear & Greed Index reading on February 28, 2025 indicates stock markets are expected to move higher.

The Canadian Dollar did move lower in the last quarter of 2024. The Bank of Canada noted that most of the depreciation is explained by the foreign exchange rate risk premium.

On July 23, 2024 British Pound Non-Commercial Futures Trader positions hit a record level. This British Pound connection has an intermarket relationship with U.S. stock markets. On July 17, 2007 British Pound Non-Commercial Trader positions peaked, as shown below. This was followed by a decline in the British Pound and U.S. stock markets in 2008. The British Pound just moved into a position that is similar to where it was in March 2008. Futures trader positions indicate a significant amount of capital is moving in preparation for a major stock market decline in 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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A previous post on February 3, 2025 noted that a global financial crisis is on the way. A closer look at Dow stocks on an arithmetic scale shows that it can be interesting to watch companies such as Walmart going parabolic. Walmart may stall, as it did in 2000 and move sideways for several years. But after Walmart hit its peak in 2000, the “tech bubble” popped and brought about losses that are still discussed today. There are numerous headlines about reducing the debt, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos selling stock, jobs, inflation, etc., etc. What is important are the positions that Market Makers are taking to setup for a decline. Since they run a “merchandising operation”, sales to pension funds, hedge funds, and large institutions would be in order at this point. In January 2025 there was a significant increase in the number of extremely large blocks of stock crossing the tape. As this occurred, active investment managers increased their exposure between the end of January and beginning of February.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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On December 19, 2024 it was noted that over the last several years Market Makers have been working on a parabolic structure for IBM. The following IBM charts include Engrbytrade™ markers within the structures. Connecting markers between 2010 and 2025 shows a projected low in the $60 to $70 range by mid- 2026. This aligns with the following S&P500 chart showing a projected low in 2026. A similar collapse occurred with Intel between April 2021 and February 2025. Markers still indicate Intel could drop below $10.

The following charts are also an indication that a global financial crisis is on the way. In 1987, Donald Bernhardt and Marshall Eckblad, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued the “Stock Market Crash of 1987” essay. They included the following point. “….a new product from US investment firms, known as “portfolio insurance,” had become very popular. It included extensive use of options and derivatives and accelerated the crash’s pace as initial losses led to further rounds of selling.”

Today the growth of derivatives continues toward estimated values as high as $2.3 quadrillion. New speculative products such as Zero-Day options, Bitcoin ETFs, etc. are just a repeat of what led up to the 1987 crash.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Based on extremely large block trades crossing the tape over the last four weeks, it appears capital has been moving out of stocks. This aligns with what occurred in August 2022 and August 2023 when active managers were reducing their risk exposure. In order for a sustainable rally to continue the index would first need to drop below the lower trend line with a reading of 60 or below. This would provide Market Makers with an opportunity to accumulate additional inventory before moving prices higher.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers

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