Category: SP500

As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.

Key data points include the following.

December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38

February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.

Key data points include the following.

December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89

February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.

December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59

November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of November 26, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 89.92. Investment Managers are still bullish with hedge positions similar to December 23, 2020. At that point the Exposure Index number was 89.11

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On November 3, 2025 the New York Financial Index was showing a RSI divergence that appeared to be a repeat of 2021. Today the S&P500 is showing a RSI divergence that is similar to what occurred between late 2024 and early 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

For a second day in a row, the Fear & Greed Index closed below 20. It was observed that the index dropped to a trading range of 8 during the day. This has not happened since the decline going into April 3, 2025 when the index hit 9 at the close.

The 5-day average put/call ratio hit 0.73. This is the same as February 25, 2025. If the ratio moves above 0.78, a move to 0.90 would be expected. This will take some time for algorithms to move investors out of a large number of call positions.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

5-day average put/call ratio as of the close on November 18, 2025 = 0.73

On November 14, 2025 it was noted that a reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. On November 7, 2025 the index hit a market close reading of 20. Today the index closed at 14. A confirmation of the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio above 0.90 will be needed.

Note:
On August 8, 2024 and April 4, 2025 the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio moved above 0.90 to confirm a turning point in the markets. Be aware that financial media outlets will step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.

Previous turning point confirmation dates.

September 28, 2022 = 17
September 29, 2022 = 14

March 13, 2023 = 20
March 15, 2023 = 19

October 3, 2023 = 17
October 4, 2023 = 19

August 5, 2024 = 16
August 7, 2024 = 20

February 24, 2025 = 20
February 27, 2025 = 18

November 7, 2025 = 20
November 17, 2025 = 14

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer: https://engrbytrade.com/disclaimer/

 

As of November 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 87.87. Investment managers are still bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

 

As of November 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 90.06. Investment managers are bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.

Based on data shown below the Exposure Index is also in a position that is similar to where it was on August 3, 2016. Following its August 3, 2016 reading the S&P500 declined 3.63% going into November 4, 2016. This was followed by a move up to January 2018. A decline is still expected, but the percentage and duration are unknown at this point.

November 5, 2025
S&P500 – 6796.29
Mean / Average = 90.06
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.86

August 3, 2016
S&P500 -August 3, 2016 – 2163.79
SP&500 – November 4 2016 – 2085.18
3.63% decline
Mean / Average = 93.05
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.90

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

On October 13, 2025 S&P500 charts illustrated a significant divergence between price and relative strength. Today this is true for the New York Financial Index, as shown below. The 2025 Financial Index divergence appears to be a repeat of 2021. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currently have a similar divergence.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

On October 29, 2025 the Hindenburg Omen was triggered, as shown in the chart below. Repetitive signals have occurred in September 2018, January – February 2020, and the latest in September –  October 2025. Based on consistent readings from the weekly chart there is a high probability of a sharp decline in the coming months.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of October 22, 2025 the NAAIM Index moved up to 90.35. Since mid-June 2025 investment managers have been following a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and August 2021. There was a brief decline in September 2021 before markets started moving higher during the last quarter of 2021. The following are examples of Dow stock movements during 2021 and 2025. By January 2022 capital had started to move and Dow tech stocks such as AAPL, CSCO, and MSFT hit their peak before moving lower.

June – August 2021 stocks moving higher|
AAPL, CRM, CSCO, GS, HD, HON, JNJ, KO, MCD, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, PG, SHW, WMT

June – August 2021 stocks moving lower
AMGN, BA, CVX, INTC, VZ

June – October 2025 stocks moving higher
AAPL, AXP, BA, CAT, CSCO, CVX, GS, HD, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MMM, MRK, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, WMT

June – October 2025 stocks moving lower
CRM, HON, PG, VZ

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Disclaimer

As of October 15, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment managers have reduced their percentage of short positions from last week. The Dow is currently following a pattern that occurred in December 2024, as shown below. If this pattern continues you could see the NAAIM Index move back above 90 before moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Based on the following, a decline is still expected. This could be a repeat of late 2024 to early 2025, or another variation created by Market Maker actions before moving up again. .

The S&P500 RSI continues to follow a 19.23 degree support line, as shown below. This is similar to late 2024 and early 2025, as well as 2000.

On Friday October 10, 2025 Market Makers were very selective in their accumulation process with Dow stocks. Size was limited to accumulated inventory that could be distributed to investors over a relatively short period of time while prices increase slowly.

In the background optimism is still high with investors holding a significant number of call options according to the CNN Put and Call Options chart.

Like the musicians in an orchestra, the (Market Makers formerly known as) specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The NAAIM Index is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on December 18, 2024. As of 2:42 P.M ET today, the CNN Fear & Greed Index had a reading (33) within 1 point of where it was on December 18, 2024. The CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio indicates investors are still holding a significant number of call options. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets. Increasing volatility is still expected going into the end of 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The following charts show a repeating Russell 2000 pattern. On November 6, 2024 over 70 million shares were traded with a 5.79% increase in price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on November 25, 2024. After that a decline started and continued until early April 2025.

On September 17, 2025 over 79 million shares were traded with a 3% swing in the price. This was followed by a long tail bearish candle on October 3, 2025.

On a smaller scale, something similar to this pattern occurred in August 2018.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of October 1, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Investment Manager’s appear to be positioned for sudden changes in the markets.

In the background, the CNN Fear & Greed Put/Call Ratio hit a low at the close with a reading of 0.57 on September 19, 2025. Investors are holding a significant number of call options as tech stocks rallied during the last half of September. Put/Call Ratio readings between November 2024 and mid-February 2025 are similar to what was recorded between July and September 2025.

The daily close for the Fear & Greed Index also indicates a drop in the markets is expected to be similar to December 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

As of September 17, 2025 the NAAIM Index is relatively unchanged. Positions this week are still within range of mid October 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer