Intermarket structural analysis research
As of January 21, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 88.46. The index has dropped below the October 2025 to January 2026 trend line. Investment Managers are hedged with positions similar to what was recorded during the week of December 23, 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
While Institutional Money Managers are bullish Market Maker’s try to hide their actions using algorithms in high frequency trading systems. Their actions are very subtle, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formula reveals their plans in the SPY. Put in the right context, the RSI can show their plans for a decline. The following charts provide an illustration of what occurred in 2022 and 2024 – 2025. The current process started in August 2025 and appears it will continue until markets move lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 14, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 96.01. Investment Managers are still bullish and positioned on an uptrend in the index that is similar to late 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Bitcoin continues to develop a large structure similar to the 1971 – 1985 Engrbytrade™ Euro model. Since 2020 the S&P500 moved lower during prolonged Bitcoin declines. The exception was 2021. At this point the S&P500 should decline in 2026. This is based on the Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength and Commodity Channel index positions indicating a change in direction is expected. After this decline Bitcoin should move up to its previous highs before starting another decline.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow Transportation Index Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index indicate a change in direction is expected. This move will affect the Dow, and S&P500, as shown in the following charts. This signal also explains the extremely large 7-figure block trades in Dow tech stocks crossing the tape over the first several trading days of 2026.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of January 7, 2026 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 97.72 and Investment Managers are still bullish. The following chart shows an uptrend in the index that is similar to 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 31, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index is 92.93 and Investment Managers are bullish. Using the following charts it appears they are repeating moves similar to that of November and December 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
In 1980 silver hit its peak on January 18, 1980 with a close of 49.45. The S&P500 started a 16.69% decline 18 trading days after this peak in silver. The 1980 stock market decline was attributed to an early recession.
In 2011 silver hit a peak on April 29, 2011 with a close of 47.95. The S&P500 started a 17.76% decline 68 trading days from the peak in silver. The August 2011 stock market decline was due to Standard & Poor’s downgrading America’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.
Once again silver is reaching new parabolic highs with the CME raising margin rates. When silver peaks, a decline in the range of 17 percent for the S&P500 would be expected. As of today it would come close to filling the gap created on May 12, 2025 before moving higher.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of December 17, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 100.70. Investment Managers are bullish with NAAIM data that is similar to February 22, 2017. This indicates they are expecting the S&P500 to have a very brief pull back followed by a steady rise in 2026. This would also include their expectation of lower interest rates, decline in the Dollar, increase in the Euro, and higher gold prices.
Key data points include the following.
December 17, 2025
Mean / Average = 100.70
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 46.38
February 22, 2017
Mean / Average = 100.83
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.31
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 10, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 97.13. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to where they were on February 19, 2025.
Key data points include the following.
December 10, 2025
Mean / Average = 97.13
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 45.89
February 19, 2025
Mean / Average = 91.48
Most Bearish = -50
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 49.61
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
As of December 3, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 98.57. Investment Managers are still bullish with data similar to November 27, 2024. Key data points include the following.
December 3, 2025
Mean / Average = 98.57
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 47.59
November 27, 2024
Mean / Average = 98.93
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 44.97
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
The following charts illustrate the number of turns that Market Makers and/or algorithms use to arrive on Point 17. The arrows are Engrbytrade™ Markers identifying key points, such as Point 7. Previous charts show Point 7 hitting the Engrbytrade™ marker and leading to the end of a sharp decline. Current markers point to a low in late 2025 or early 2026. It appears this upcoming decline could be short and very sharp.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 26, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 89.92. Investment Managers are still bullish with hedge positions similar to December 23, 2020. At that point the Exposure Index number was 89.11
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
Up until mid-October 2025 Market Maker’s processed and accumulated extremely large seven figure block trades of TLT. During this process TLT followed its 2010 – 2011 chart structure. Another stock market structure appeared recently in the S&P500 during October and November 2025. This is similar to the February to June 2011 S&P500 chart peak structure. In 2011 the S&P500 structure formed prior to an announcement of a U.S Credit Downgrade on August 5, 2011. It resulted in a sharp decline in the stock markets as interest rates dropped quickly.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The current S&P500 trading pattern is in a process of developing structures similar to the beginning of April 2024. The large engulfing candle on Thursday, November 20, 2025 followed by a rally is similar to April 4 – 5, 2024. In addition to this the 5-Day Moving Average Equity Put/Call Ratio continues to move higher, as it did in April 2024. What remains to be seen is how far Options and Equity Market Makers push this decline in order to accumulate the inventory they need.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 19, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 86.56. Investment Managers are still bullish but hedging just as they did in October 2025. Based on the Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021 volatility would be expected to pick up in the coming weeks.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On November 3, 2025 the New York Financial Index was showing a RSI divergence that appeared to be a repeat of 2021. Today the S&P500 is showing a RSI divergence that is similar to what occurred between late 2024 and early 2025.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
For a second day in a row, the Fear & Greed Index closed below 20. It was observed that the index dropped to a trading range of 8 during the day. This has not happened since the decline going into April 3, 2025 when the index hit 9 at the close.
The 5-day average put/call ratio hit 0.73. This is the same as February 25, 2025. If the ratio moves above 0.78, a move to 0.90 would be expected. This will take some time for algorithms to move investors out of a large number of call positions.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On November 14, 2025 it was noted that a reading of 20 or less at the close for at least two days in the Fear and Greed Index indicates a turning point is near. On November 7, 2025 the index hit a market close reading of 20. Today the index closed at 14. A confirmation of the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio above 0.90 will be needed.
Note:
On August 8, 2024 and April 4, 2025 the CNN 5-day average put/call ratio moved above 0.90 to confirm a turning point in the markets. Be aware that financial media outlets will step in and reinforce retail investors fear on the street. Market Makers will be busy accumulating inventory.
Previous turning point confirmation dates.
September 28, 2022 = 17
September 29, 2022 = 14
March 13, 2023 = 20
March 15, 2023 = 19
October 3, 2023 = 17
October 4, 2023 = 19
August 5, 2024 = 16
August 7, 2024 = 20
February 24, 2025 = 20
February 27, 2025 = 18
November 7, 2025 = 20
November 17, 2025 = 14
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
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As of November 12, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 87.87. Investment managers are still bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
During the first week of November 2025 the S&P Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index dropped below 17.5. This also occurred in December 2018, March 2020, and October 2023. What followed the previous 17.5 readings was a notable rise in the XLP index. As the Bullish Percent index rose above 85, the first two XLP moves peaked and started to move lower. It appears the third move has not reached an over valued level.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
As of November 5, 2025 the NAAIM Exposure Index moved down to 90.06. Investment managers are bullish and continue to follow a similar Exposure Index pattern developed between mid-June 2021 and September 2021.
Based on data shown below the Exposure Index is also in a position that is similar to where it was on August 3, 2016. Following its August 3, 2016 reading the S&P500 declined 3.63% going into November 4, 2016. This was followed by a move up to January 2018. A decline is still expected, but the percentage and duration are unknown at this point.
November 5, 2025
S&P500 – 6796.29
Mean / Average = 90.06
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.86
August 3, 2016
S&P500 -August 3, 2016 – 2163.79
SP&500 – November 4 2016 – 2085.18
3.63% decline
Mean / Average = 93.05
Most Bearish = 0
Most Bullish = 200
Standard Deviation = 40.90
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Data source: NAAIM Exposure Index
On October 13, 2025 S&P500 charts illustrated a significant divergence between price and relative strength. Today this is true for the New York Financial Index, as shown below. The 2025 Financial Index divergence appears to be a repeat of 2021. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs currently have a similar divergence.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On October 29, 2025 the Hindenburg Omen was triggered, as shown in the chart below. Repetitive signals have occurred in September 2018, January – February 2020, and the latest in September – October 2025. Based on consistent readings from the weekly chart there is a high probability of a sharp decline in the coming months.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
