Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Makers

The Stock Market Is Rigged – Richard Ney

Between 2006 and 2008 the NYSE used the financial crisis as cover to quietly transition from a Specialist Unit system to a Designated Market Maker Unit system. Regardless of the new rules, Market Makers continue to use their merchandising operation to sell at the highs and buy at the lows.

“DMMs were conceived as a new type of market maker for a primarily electronic trading environment that had the ability, and the affirmative obligation, to contribute liquidity in a security by trading competitively for the DMM unit’s dealer account. DMMs were designed to function in a manner substantially different from the manner in which specialists had previously functioned on the Exchange.”
Federal Register Document Citation 88 FR 77625, pages: 77625-77642

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S&P500: Peak Position

The S&P500 index is moving into a peak position as the charts shown below reach their highs in December. This is also the case for S&P500 sectors, such as Real Estate ($BPREAL), Healthcare ($BPHEAL), Financial ($BPFINA), Technology ($BPINFO), and Materials ($BPMATE).

Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations have shown that significant big block selling took place during the end of November and mid-December 2023. This selling is similar to what occurred during late November and December 2021.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: BRICS 11

BRICS countries are duplicating Bretton Woods organizations similar to the World Bank and IMF. For over 15 years BRICS countries have been building the infrastructure needed to support a new global financial system tied to gold. There are another 18 nations waiting to join.

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Dubai Precious Metals (DPMC) 2023 conference
November 21 – 22, 2023
Jim Rickards Keynote Address

 

Silver: Ascending Triangle

Since the U.S. went off a gold standard in August 1971 economic recovery and bail out packages have grown at an exponential rate. Between 1970 and 1972 a total of $54 billion in economic related funding bills were approved. Between 2020 and 2022 a total of $7.59 trillion in congressional bailout and economic rescue plans were approved. This does not include annual government budget funding that continues to raise the national debt.

It has been observed that silver charts develop within an ascending triangle either during, or within a year after each of the periods listed below. For example, after the 2008 and 2009 bailout packages were approved an ascending triangle formed, as show in the second chart below. After moving through this triangle, silver quickly moved up to the $49 range by April 2011.

Once again, numerous bailouts and rescue packages were approved by Congress between 2020 and 2022. At this point a silver chart structure is developing within an ascending triangle that it is on course to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. A quick move up in silver during 2024 is expected to be similar to what occurred during 1974 and 2011.

Note that daily Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations are moving quickly in a direction that confirms silver is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure and is similar to what was developed during 2008 and 2009.

U.S. Economic Recovery and Bailout Packages

1970 – 1972
$15 billion Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 signed on August 15, 1970
$2.25 billion Emergency Employment Act of 1971, signed on July 12, 1971
$15.8 billion Revenue Act of 1971, signed on December 10, 1971
$21 billion Education Amendments of 1972 signed on July 23, 1972
Total = $54 billion

1974 – 1979
$11.9 billion Housing and Community Development Act signed on August 22, 1974
$23 billion Tax Reduction act of 1975 signed on March 29, 1975
$56 billion Health Education and Welfare Programs (majority approval by Congress) September 30, 1976
$20 billion Economic Stimulus Appropriations Act of 1977 signed on May 13, 1977
$18.7 billion Revenue Act of 1978 signed on November 9, 1978
Total = $129 billion

2008 – 2009
$700 billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 signed October 3, 2008
$787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 signed February 17, 2009
Total = 1.487 trillion

2020 – 2022
$2 trillion Cares Act was signed on March 27, 2020.
$1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed on March 11, 2021.
$1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act was signed on November 15, 2021.
$2.2 trillion Build Back Better Act was signed on August 16, 2021.
$750 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was signed on August 16, 2022.
Total = $7.85 trillion = 5.28 times larger than the 2009 and 2009 bills noted above.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold: Long Term Ascending Triangle

On June 25, 2023 it was noted that research would continue with other currencies to see if trader positioning is conducted prior to specific rally or decline events. On October 22, 2023 it was noted that the triple top formation by itself did not necessarily mean a decline was expected, but Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations were trending in a direction showing traders hedging their trades for a long term decline.

Since October 22, 2023, daily Engrbytrade™ Gold/U.S Dollar derivative calculations have moved quickly in a direction that confirms gold is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure that is similar to what was developed during 2008 and 2009, just prior to moving higher in 2010 and 2011. Based on current daily calculations there is a high probability gold will stay within its ascending triangle prior to moving to the upside.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Fibonacci Move January 2000

The Dow has moved quickly over the last 33 trading days and is expected to pierce the 261.8% Fibonacci level today, as shown in the chart below.  Another example of this type of move occurred between October 18, 1999 and January 14, 2000, within a 63 trading day period. A sharp decline followed after mid-January 2000.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: August 1929 vs December 2023

Comparing data structures covering the last 26 years the Dow has taken shape on a scale that is 100 times larger than the 1913 to 1929 model. The charts shown below compare values of the Dow between 1913 – 1929 and 1997 -2023.

Note that the price range in the Dow on August 23, 1929 (370.0 – 378.70) x100 would overlap with the trading range of 37,051.5 – 37,287.5 on December 14, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: November – December 1916 Trajectory

The first chart shown below provides the Dow’s current calculated trajectory. The second chart is a 2006 – 2008 trajectory for the Dow illustrating how the current trajectory should move.

The Dow’s move above its current line of trajectory is similar to what occurred in November and December of 1916. In the last half of December 1916 the Dow dropped quickly below its line of trajectory and continued to move lower resulting in a 40% decline by December 19, 1917.

The Dow is currently expected to move back in line with its calculated trajectory and continue on its projected line of descent going into November 2024.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: Peak Signal Patterns

Between June 1, 2023 and December 7, 2023 the Dow has been moving methodically through a trading process similar to what was produced between September 17, 2021 and January 6, 2022. Although the price chart structures are different, daily  engrbytrade™ trading calculations produced peak signals on July 21, 2023, September 7, 2023, and November  21, 2023 that are similar to the peak signal pattern produced on October 26, 2021, December 8, 2021, and January 4, 2022.

In addition to the signals noted above, Dow E-Mini futures signals produced on October 26, 2021, December 10, 2021, and January 6, 2022 are similar to the peak signal patterns produced on July 21, 2023, September 8, 2023 and November 22, 2023.

It was also observed that a pattern of extremely large block trades crossed the tape within the trading areas of interest shown below between June 2023 and December 2023, just as they did between September 2021 and January 2022. Based on this comparison of peak signals, a decline is still expected.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Gold/US Dollar: Indirect Signal

Daily engrbytrade™ Gold to U.S. Dollar calculations on December 6, 2023 gave an indirect signal that aligned with a stock market peak that is similar to what occurred on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021.  The declines noted below show what occurred after receiving the indirect Gold to U.S. Dollar signals on January 28, 2020 and November 23, 2021.

This observation also aligns with S&P500 traders positioning for a decline, as noted on November 20, 2023.

Dow:
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -35.27%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -16.125%

NDX
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -22.92%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -32.33%

S&P500
January 28, 2020 – March 23, 2020 decline = -31.71%
November 23, 2021 – October 13, 2022 decline = -21.76%

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Crude Oil: Long Term Accumulation Continues

On July 23, 2023 it was noted that crude oil was under accumulation. Additional futures trading data from crude oil and related natural gas market calculations indicate crude oil is in a long term accumulation period. Crude oil is also in a similar position to where it was in November 2016. Note that as of 12:00 p.m. on December 6, 2023 WTIC dropped below 69.50 and fell within the accumulation channel noted below.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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S&P500: Structured Block Trading

In a process of structured block trading, market makers (and computer algorithms) have created the following chart patterns. While it has been noted that S&P500 futures traders are positioned for a decline, it appears Market Makers are planning to recreate a structure that is similar to what was developed between April 1, 2022 and June 16, 2022. Underlying data within the Apple charts show a total volume of very large block trades processed between December 13, 2021 and March 30, 2022 (point 1 through point 7) are within .01% of the total volume of very large block trades processed between July 19, 2023 and November 27, 2023 (point 1 through point 7). This would indicate a top is close.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: November 2018 Chart Structure

On November 2, 2023 the following charts were included with a comparison between 2018 and 2023 10-Yr note rates when the Dow was expected to move up to 35,078 +/- 1%. Since November 2, 2023 the Dow has moved up in a chart structure similar to what was developed between November 2, 2018 and November 9, 2018. On November 15, 2023 the Dow hit a high of 35,051.10. This move indicates 10-Yr rates could start to move lower sooner than expected while stock markets decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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NASDAQ 100: Filling August Gap

Market Makers took the opportunity today to setup a process of filling any remaining gaps going back to August 2, 2023 and distribute significant quantities of inventory as the financial news media encourages retail investors to move into the markets. This opportunity was coordinated with the financial news media based on lower than expected Consumer Price Index numbers. A very large gap was created in the NASDAQ futures chart today when the CPI announcement occurred. Large gaps in the futures market are all filled within a relatively short period of time.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Euro: Fourth Quarter Rally

Engrbytrade™ weekly futures trading data calculation updates indicate the Euro is conducting a rally similar to what occurred in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and December 2009 to January 2010. Based on this update, there is an expectation the Euro will start to turn lower between December 2023 and January 2024. Additional data will be needed to identify a turning point.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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