Engrbytrade Posts

Posted on

Dow: Ratio Measurement

Based on angles discussed on March 2, 2024 where algorithms appear to continue duplicating the 1973 Dow structure, an  Engrbytrade™ custom ratio measurement was taken from reference points where geometric lines intersect rather than using traditional Fibonacci structure points. Based on the 1973 Dow structure shown below, a brief decline is still expected, followed by a 1.65% move up  above the February 23, 2024 high to reach 45,763.88 (+/- 1%) before starting a long term decline.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P 500: December 1972

The rise in the Dow and S&P 500 between October 2023 and March 2024 has been similar to what occurred between October and December 1972. The Dow moved upward along a 41.46 degree trend line while the S&P 500 followed a 43.23 degree trend line. This would indicate the 2023 – 2024 structures were developed by algorithms based on what occurred in late 1972. The expected result of this move is a brief decline followed by one more move upward before starting a long decline in 2024.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow/S&P500: Crossroad

It was noted on February 12, 2024 that preliminary calculations indicated placement of the final point in a 1973 structure model would be expected to occur within a 2024 peak range of 38,559 +/-5.963% (36,260 to 40,859). On Friday, February 23, 2024, the Dow hit a high of 39,282.3. Market Makers, Exchange Insiders, Bankers, et al. are at a crossroad where they need to decide if the 1973 model structure will continue with a decline in 2024, or adapt to another structure and continue moving higher. This also applies to the S&P500. Ultimately, the end result will be a significant decline and depression for either choice.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Interest Rates: Large Block Trades

Interest rate futures data continues to show the 10-Yr Note rate is expected to decline in 2024. In comparison to this data, products such as the 20+ Year Treasury bond ETF appear to be under accumulation by Market Makers with extremely large block trades observed crossing the tape since October 2023. This does not mean that the Federal Reserve will be the first to lower rates. Wall Street will be first in line to accumulate notes, resulting in lower rates as stock markets decline. When volatility increases in the stock market, the Fed will eventually step in to lower rates while the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” starts buying stock futures, as they did in December 2018.

Note that charts shown below are for research purposes only and are not a recommendation.

The cultural response of most investors is based on the assumption that “if somebody is buying, somebody is selling; not for a moment is it recognized that, in most cases “if somebody is buying,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is selling; and if “somebody is selling,” it’s the specialist (Market Maker) who is buying.
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 150

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Descending Triangles

Since mid-December 2023 a series of descending triangles have appeared that include Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Walgreens, and the Japanese Yen.  This is very similar to what occurred between April – September 2008 with stocks such as Apple, Chevron, Disney, and Goldman Sachs. Currency descending triangles in 2008 included the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc. Based on the current Japanese Yen descending triangle, it is a preliminary indication of positioning expected in the U.S. Dollar before moving higher, as noted on January 20, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Selective Declines

On January 26, 2024 and February 4, 2024 it was noted how Market Makers move a group of stocks without revealing their intentions to the public while providing minimal impact on the Dow’s movement. Between February 1, 2024 and February 20, 2024 Market Makers conducted selective declines in Amgen, Cisco, Honeywell, and Verizon. In order to avoid a rush of broad retail selling an offset to this decline was setup with a move up in issues such as American Express, Caterpillar, Salesforce, Disney, JP Morgan, Merck, Travelers, and Walmart.  This was conducted to maintain the Dow within 50 point range between February 1, 2023 and February 20, 2023.

“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the ( Market Makers formerly known as Specialists) who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Silver: Upward Trend

On September 6, 2022, Engrbytrade™ weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations provided results indicating a change in direction. This was followed by silver’s upward trend.

On December 24, 2023, it was noted that daily Engrbytrade™ Silver/U.S Dollar derivative calculations were moving in a direction that confirmed silver is nearing the completion of a long term ascending triangle structure.  This is similar to what occurred between 2008 and 2010.

Silver is expected to move though its ascending triangle, but another signal would provide confirmation that an upward trend will continue.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500: Close Several Gaps

Since mid-December 2023, S&P 500 sentiment charts have developed structures indicating a decline is expected. This sentiment is also reflected in sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, etc.

The daily S&P500 chart shown below identifies gaps that would be filled with the upcoming decline. Ultimately this decline is expected to move down to the 4119.2 level in order to close several gaps, including a 8 point futures gap left behind on October 29, 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500: 2018 Algorithm

Between January 4, 2022 and February 7, 2024 it appears the S&P500 structure was developed on a much larger scale (within 1.3%) using a 2018 algorithm that was run between January 26, 2018 and September 21, 2018. Just like September 21, 2018, retail investors were extremely optimistic on February 7, 2024 with a new high in the S&P500.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Posted on

Dow/S&P500: Extreme Optimism

Robert Prechter: Market Forecast 2024

This video presentation provides a description of specific indicators measuring investor optimism and pessimism. Engrbytrade™ does not use Elliott wave principles due to the fact that wave labeling is subjective and Market Makers, with support from the financial media, control investor’s emotions as they raise and lower prices. Structural measurements are taken based on proprietary intermarket technical analysis of financial data and chart structures created during the course of specific time frames.

Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists)
“Like the musicians in an orchestra, the specialists who conduct the movements of each of the Dow stocks work on behalf of their own interests while at the same time working for the fulfillment of the objectives of the system as a whole.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 98

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Trade Pattern Structure

A review of Engrbytrade™ Daily Trade Pattern Structure Calculation results between November 17, 2023 and January 17, 2024 indicate a significant change in direction to lower levels is expected during 2024. The results are similar to what occurred between September 17, 2021 and December 10, 2021. Change in direction signals are identified in the charts below.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: 2008 Transportation Index

As part of a wider market structural review, the Dow Transportation Index provides some additional insight on the state of the market. Since October 2022 the Transportation Index has developed a similar form of its 2008 chart structure.  In addition to this, the Transportation Index stopped moving higher after the beginning of 2024, unlike the Dow Jones Index moving to new highs.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Tech Stock Decline

On January 26, 2024, a decline preview of the Dow was provided to show how Market Makers initiate a decline without revealing their intentions to the public. The next phase for Market Makers is to coordinate a selected tech stock decline. This will be done using Apple, Cisco, Honeywell, and Intel while the public is distracted with new highs in the Dow.

“In a bear market specialists (currently known as Market Makers) will invariably advance the Dow on a Friday in order not to allow pessimism to build over a weekend—…” Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 92

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500: Ratio Measurement

On January 31, 2024 an Engrbytrade™ ratio measurement was discussed for the Dow Jones Index using key points in the chart structure. Custom ratio measurements were taken to obtain consistent results based on historical chart structures, such as the S&P500, which appears to be in the process of recreating its 1970 – 1973 chart structure.

A custom ratio measurement was taken between October 4, 1972 and October 17, 1972 with a peak result of 3.046, as shown in the last chart. A similar measurement was taken between October 17, 2023 and October 27, 2023 with a peak result of 3.0074. The February 2, 2024 measurement of 3.0074 is within 1.2% of the January 11, 1973 measurement of 3.046. A move up to the 3.046 level in 2024 would equal 4986.48 on the S&P500.

A decline is still expected based on key factors noted on January 29, 2024. Additional data will be needed to see if a decline similar to the first quarter of 1973 occurs.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Interest Rates: Futures Gap

On January 31, 2024 at 08:15 a.m. a futures gap was created between 4.028 and 4.03. This gap was filled when the 10-Yr Note rate moved up quickly on February 2, 2024, as noted in the first chart below.  A review of the weekly 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader Net (Long-Short) futures trading data, shown in the 2nd chart, indicates the 10-Year Note interest rate is still expected to move lower in 2024.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Ratio Measurement

A ratio measurement between October 17, 1972 and January 11, 1973 was taken with a peak result of 3.35, as shown in the bottom chart. The same measurement was taken between October 27, 2023 and January 30, 2024 with a peak result of 3.2043. The January 30, 2024 measurement of 3.2043 is within 4.3% of the January 11, 1973 measurement of 3.35.  Today, a decline is expected based on key factors noted on January 29, 2024. Additional data will be needed to see if a decline similar to the first quarter of 1973 occurs.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500: Fed Anxiety

As the next FOMC meeting approaches volatility declines when traders, once again, are overly optimistic and have a case of “Fed Anxiety” while they wait for the Fed to make a decision on interest rates. Regardless of the Fed’s announcement, plans are already in place for a market decline. This can be observed with the following:

  1. There has been a significant decline in activity of extremely large block trades since mid-December 2023 in the “Magnificent 7”.
  2. Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average has peaked and started a decline.
  3. S&P500 Bullish Percentage Index has peaked and started a decline.
  4. CNN Fear & Greed reading continues to stay in the Extreme Greed Range.
  5. 10-Yr Note futures traders are holding larger short positions than they were on September 25, 2018 when the S&P started a 19% decline going into December 2018.
  6. The S&P500 is in a rising wedge that is similar to what occurred in 2022 and 2023.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Decline Preview

Starting in mid-November 2023, Dow Stochastic and DeMARK indicators moved into their overbought range. By December 19, 2023, a variety of indicators such as the Relative Strength Index, Chalkin Oscillator, Price Oscillator, and Random Walk Indicator hit their overbought range peak. During this rally it was observed that Market Makers were consistently distributing extremely large blocks of stock. When their distributions were complete at the end of 2023, Market Makers started moving prices lower in Dow stocks that are not in the top ten Dow Index Component Weights of Stocks list. This group of stocks will provide a minimal impact on the Dow’s movement and give Market Makers the ability to initiate a decline without revealing their intentions to the public. The charts below provide a decline preview of what’s to eventually occur with the Dow Index.

Note: The following are strictly for illustration purposes only, not recommendations.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: Decline in 2024

On December 27, 2023 it was noted that Market Makers were expected to push the Dow Jones Index to 38,120, which is 100 times the close on September 3, 1929.

Today the NYSE Dow hit a high of 38,109.20 and the CBOT Mini Dow Jones Industrial – $5 March 24 contract hit a high of $38,209.00. The average between the two is 38,159.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Index Bullish Sentiment is currently in a position that is similar to where it was on August 11-19, 2022, December 1-2, 2022, and July 26, 2023, as shown in the 2nd chart below. Overall, there is a high probability of a decline in 2024 that is similar to what occurred between November 2021 and October 2022 based on daily Dow calculation results from November 17, 2021 and December 15, 2023. This aligns with the expected decline in the 10-Yr Note interest rate in 2024.

Recent changes in the Dow chart structure have prompted a review of the Engrbytrade™ 1974 Model in comparison to what was developed between March 23, 2022 and January 23, 2024. Initial observations indicate a decline could extend into 2025.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

S&P500: Distributions at the Close

On Friday January 19, 2024 the S&P500 hit a new high that is reminiscent of the record high on January 26, 2018. Between November 15, 2023 and December 29, 2023 Stochastic and DeMARK indicators were showing overbought readings for a majority of this time frame. The same overbought readings were observed between November 29, 2017 and January 29, 2018 prior to the S&P500 dropping 9.5% between January 29, 2018 and February 8, 2018. The 2024 S&P500 chart structure shown below is currently in a position similar to where it was on Friday, January 26, 2018. On Friday, January 19, 2024 characteristics of large block trade distributions were observed at the close.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer