At 2:58 p.m. today, the NASDAQ 100 hit 14,724.44 on a retracement level of 67.73%, as discussed on June 2, 2023.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: Preparations for 10-Yr Note Yield Decline
Futures trading data calculations indicate preparations are being made for a substantial decline in the 10-Yr Note yield over the next several months. This setup is similar to what occurred between September 25, 2018 and October 9, 2018. Part of this preparation was discussed in the June 3, 2023 post showing a 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart illustrating how traders are continuing to move to extremes beyond what was recorded on September 25, 2018.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Market Thrust
Don’t forget to keep an eye on Market Thrust for a change in market direction.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500: CBOE Put/Call Ratio
On June 2, 2023 the CBOE Put/Call Ratio hit a low of 0.76. This is in the range of what occurred on November 11, 2022 when the ratio hit a low of 0.75. The Dow declined 5.3%, and the S&P500 declined 2.9%.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Jeffrey Gundlach June 6, 2023
Euro: 2023 Structure Status
On May 22, 2023 it was noted that the Euro would continue moving higher. Futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is expected to complete a structure similar to what was constructed during January 2017 to December 2017 and January 2020 to December 2020 by the end of 2023. It is currently in a position similar to where it was on October 11, 2017 and October 2, 2020. A move above 1.14 is expected prior to starting a long decline.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Media Announces Bull Market
When you see all media outlets proclaiming a bull market has started, it is an indication that Market Makers have sold their entire inventory and sold short. Expect a decline to begin, just as it did during the last half of May in 2008.
Headlines from June 9, 2023
Reuters
Behold Wall Street’s new bull market, maybe
Wall Street Journal
Enters New Bull Market as Big Tech Lifts Indexes
AP News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
CNN
It’s official. We’re in a bull market
ABC News
The S&P 500 is in a bull market.
NASDAQ 100: May 19, 2008 vs June 7, 2023
As of June 7, 2023 the NASDAQ 100 structure is tracking with the NASDAQ 100 May 19, 2008 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement structure shown below. Using this model provides the expectation of another move above the 61.8% level before making a move to lower levels. Looking back to news events on May 19, 2008, there are some similarities in the standard reasons they use to describe market moves.
Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5 19 2008
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: 67.73% Retracement
On June 2, 2023 it was noted that the NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 67.73% retracement pattern. In addition to this the NASDAQ 100 is also completing a 67.73% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between January 11, 1973 and October 29, 1973.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500/Interest Rates: Fibonacci 300% – 327.20%
On May 18, 2023, it was noted that a significant decline in the S&P500 is expected over the coming weeks. The following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart update illustrates how traders are continuing to move to extremes beyond what was recorded on September 25, 2018. The following S&P500 charts also illustrate a consistent pattern within a Fibonacci range of 300% – 327.20% where a downturn is expected.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ 100: 67.73% Retracement
On May 30, 2023 it was noted that the NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987. In addition to this the following charts from 2008 and 2023 provide some perspective on this move. Fibonacci is a guide. Detail calculations show the NASDAQ 100 conducted a 67.73% retracement from March 17, 2008 to June 5, 2008 before it started to decline. Today, a 67.73% move up from October 13, 2022 would provide a peak of 14,724.44 before a decline starts.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Record Decline Reading
Daily Engrbytrade™ calculations for May 31, 2023 show a record decline reading that is the highest since calculations began in January 2019. It was also observed that a significant number of large block trades in the tech sector crossed the tape.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/NASDAQ100: $1 Trillion Companies
With NVIDIA being the latest to hit the $1 trillion valuation mark, it should be noted that there are companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (Facebook) and Tesla that have faced declines after reaching their $1 trillion valuation point. The following history provides some perspective on this.
August 2, 2018 – Apple is now a $1 trillion company
August 2, 2018 – $50.216
January 3, 2019 – $34.67
Declined 30.95%
September 4, 2018 – Amazon becomes second trillion-dollar Company in U.S.
September 4, 2018 – $101.97
December 24, 2018 – $67.19
Declined 34.10%
April 25, 2019 – Microsoft is now a $1 trillion company
April 25, 2019 – $126.18
June 3, 2019 – $117.51
Declined 6.87%
January 16, 2020 – Google parent Alphabet is now a $1 trillion company
January 16, 2020 – $72.50
March 23, 2020 – $52.70
Declined 27.31%
June 28, 2021 – Facebook (Meta) has become a $1 trillion company
June 28, 2021 – $355.64
November 3, 2022 – $88.91
Declined 75%
October 26, 2021 – Tesla is now worth more than $1 trillion
October 26, 2021 – $339.47
January 6, 2022 – $113.06
Declined 66.6%
Dow/NASDAQ100: 61.8% Retracement
The November 22, 2021 to May 30, 2023 NASDAQ 100 structure is in the process of completing a 61.8% retracement pattern that is similar to what occurred in the Dow between August 25, 1987 and October 2, 1987.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ/Dow/SP500: Artificial Intelligence bubble
Dot Com Bubble Wall Street Documentary
December 2, 2018
Today you can substitute “Dot Com bubble” with “Artificial Intelligence bubble”.
Dow/Interest Rates: September 26, 2018
Intermarket futures trading data 10-Yr note calculations indicate that on May 23, 2023 the Dow was in a structural position similar to where it was on September 26, 2018. A 23% decline is still expected, as noted on May 21, 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
NASDAQ/Dow: 2023 vs 1930
The development of parabolic structures is progressing. An Engrbytrade™ model representation of parabolic structures provides a comparison between the 1913 – 1933 Dow structure and 1993 – 2023 Dow structure. This parabolic structure also crosses over to the NASDAQ Composite, as shown below. A sharp decline in the NASDAQ is expected in 2023.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy/Bitcoin: Single Ledger System
JP Morgan’s Secret About The Fed And CBDCs (EXPOSED!)
Gold/Dollar/Euro: Gold 2023 Decline
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar, Euro and gold are in a structural position similar to where they were in October 2012. This configuration is expected to produce a drop in gold over several months as the U.S. Dollar and Euro move higher. The following charts illustrate this positioning.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1971 vs 2023
Between April 28, 1971 and August 10, 1971, the following 1971 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 839.60 on August 10, 1971 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between late August 1971 and early September 1971 before starting a decline that would end on November 23, 1971.
Between December 1, 2021 and October 13, 2022 the 2021 – 2023 chart shows a descending broadening wedge formed in the Dow structure. From a closing low of 30,038 on October 13, 2022 the Dow moved back up above its 61.8% retracement level between November 2022 and May 2023. It appears the Dow is in the process of repeating the 1971 structure shown below. Using this model, the Dow is expected to move down to 25,738 by mid- July 2022. This 23% decline would be twice as large as the 11.5% decline from October 7, 1971 (901.8) to November 23, 1971 (798).
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: Jerome Powell – 5/19/23
Federal Reserve Chair Powell discusses key issues in monetary policy and the economy — 5/19/23
S&P500: Broadening Top
On May 15, 2023 it was observed that a descending triangle was forming in the S&P500 1-hour chart. Since that time a broadening top formation has developed in the 1-hour chart. This formation is similar to what occurred between December 2021 and January 2022 prior to a sharp decline, as shown below.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Economy: 2018 vs 2023 Fed Outlook
On September 26, 2018, just before the Dow and S&P500 peaked on October 3, 2018 Jerome Powell said, “The economy is strong.” This was followed by a 19% decline in the S&P500 and a 24% decline in the Dow. On May 3, 2023 Jerome Powell said “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.” Another collapse is expected.
- FOMC Press Conference – Sept. 26, 2018
- FOMC Press Conference, May 3, 2023
S&P500/Interest Rates: 2018 Decline
In addition to the May 13, 2023 near term update, the following 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Traders net position chart indicates a significant decline in the S&P500 is expected over the coming weeks. This is similar to what occurred between September 25, 2018 and December 24, 2018, as shown in the chart below.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
